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  1. #341
    Stood in the Fire Zhira's Avatar
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    With 9 mio subs (+/-) WoW is still at massive succes. Hell, even with 5 mio subs

    Consider this - a game like LotRO has around 500k subs (F2P) and it's considered a HUGE success. Blizzard taking hits on their subs is not necessarily due to the direction the game is taking. The game is just getting VERY old and players move on.

    Numbers are an indication - some people put far too much into it

    Z.
    LotRO - Zhira @ Snowbourn - L95 Man Burglar
    Rift - Zhira @ Zaviel - L60 Guardian Rogue
    WoW - Zhilas @ Draenor - L90 Goblin Rogue

    "...some cheese for your whine ?"

  2. #342
    The Patient
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    Numbers are a metric that can be manipulated in many different ways. the haters will say game is dying a slow death, the fan's will say it is still the most successful MMO in the world the truth will be somewhere in the middle and the stock market will truly determine the fate of the game.
    http://us.battle.net/wow/en/characte...ckabear/simple

    Ideally no one has ever hit the level cap of the last expansion, looked at their dungeon blues, and thought "I win."

  3. #343
    Is this the first quarter without Annual Passes?

  4. #344
    Quote Originally Posted by MrExcelion View Post
    Is this the first quarter without Annual Passes?
    Yes, but there could still be some active.

    Annual passes became available Oct/Nov 2011 and new sign ups ended April/May 2012.

  5. #345
    Free fall on sub departement.
    It was considered that 600k was a major decline.
    Then Q2 2012 Redifined "major".
    I believe the game lost 500k to 800k subs since expension start.
    We wont know till next week i guess judging from previous times.
    I dont care currently about the rest of Blizzard's products.

  6. #346
    I hope im wrong, but my calculations put active subs down millions. Down below 7 million. I say 7 million because my other number is almost 'lol' worthy.

  7. #347
    Quote Originally Posted by Zhira View Post
    With 9 mio subs (+/-) WoW is still at massive succes. Hell, even with 5 mio subs
    By MMORPG standards... absolutely.

    By Stock market investors seeing their profits sink into a pithole - not so much (enter the curse of "growing your business for investors")

    While you'd still be happy, I guarantee at 5 mil subs there would be yelling, mass meetings and firings at Blizzard if that happened, not to mention the ENTIRE game getting a massive ideology reaction-gameplay shift (just like what happened during Firelands>DS). Especially considering that those subscriptions are the ONLY source of continual revenue funding goodness knows how many of their projects that they got going on... This isn't the old Blizz anymore, where they worked on 2 games, 1 expansion each at a time.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-07 at 07:35 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Archidamos View Post
    Free fall on sub departement.
    It was considered that 600k was a major decline.
    Then Q2 2012 Redifined "major".
    I believe the game lost 500k to 800k subs since expension start.
    We wont know till next week i guess judging from previous times.
    I dont care currently about the rest of Blizzard's products.
    We're going to find out tomorrow via the investor call at around 1ish...
    Last edited by mvallas; 2013-02-07 at 07:36 AM.
    "Tell them only that the Lich King is dead... and that World of Warcraft... died with him..."

    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    That's the ONLY reason you would post 9600 posts over 3 years: a mission of hate.

  8. #348
    Can't really see it gaining subs with its current content being primarily grind grind grind and grind in CRZs.

  9. #349
    Stood in the Fire Zhira's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tayona View Post
    I hope im wrong, but my calculations put active subs down millions. Down below 7 million. I say 7 million because my other number is almost 'lol' worthy.
    I'll bite.

    What are those calculations?

    Z.
    LotRO - Zhira @ Snowbourn - L95 Man Burglar
    Rift - Zhira @ Zaviel - L60 Guardian Rogue
    WoW - Zhilas @ Draenor - L90 Goblin Rogue

    "...some cheese for your whine ?"

  10. #350
    how long does the conference take and are you listening to it? or just waiting for someone to post the numbers on mmoc?

  11. #351
    Quote Originally Posted by Zhira View Post
    I'll bite.

    What are those calculations?

    Z.
    I was waiting for someone to ask me that

    http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30&r=&w=&n=

    this calculates the percentage of 90s with certain mounts. Tyreals charger is owned by 31.49% of 90s-- from EU/KR/US. Combine that with the suggested number of annual passes sold, you can estimate how many people bought MOP as of today, and therefore would have an active sub. Like I said, I -could- be wrong.

  12. #352
    I expect the numbers to say around the same - if not rise abit. MOP launched in China in 4th quarter and that will help the active players (not subs even tho BLizzard talks about it as subs). The first quarter of 2013 will be more interesting. Specially if BLizz fails to get 5.2 out before end of March.

  13. #353
    Quote Originally Posted by Tayona View Post
    I was waiting for someone to ask me that

    http://www.guildox.com/go/g.aspx?a=30&r=&w=&n=

    this calculates the percentage of 90s with certain mounts. Tyreals charger is owned by 31.49% of 90s-- from EU/KR/US. Combine that with the suggested number of annual passes sold, you can estimate how many people bought MOP as of today, and therefore would have an active sub. Like I said, I -could- be wrong.
    That's quite interesting.
    Seems to fit with my speculation that the current amount of subs will be around 8.3 million in my previous post earlier in this thread (with a worst case 7.5 mill, best case 9 mill).

    They said they sold 1.2 million annual passes. So that is about 10% of the wow population. Of those 1.2 million passes, only 378k are level 90 with the mount. Of course there might be people who have yet to reach level 90, but it still means a potential drop of ~822k+ people from annual passes alone.

  14. #354
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    I find it rather hilarious that people are already starting in on the whole "this quarter doesn't matter it is the next one that is important" before the numbers are even out yet. A preemptive strike isn't going to make the nonsense any less idiotic.
    You appear to be projecting your own issues on to my post. Nowhere did I say this quarter does not matter, I simply believe that this quarter subs will remain steady, although I maybe being overly optimistic, and that the next quarter will be worse. I maybe be right, I might be wrong, what do you think will happen with the sub numbers or are you just here to insult people as usual? I am not sure why you think this is a preemptive strike or why you even think this is some kind of attack.

  15. #355
    Well I am interested in the numbers..... to me it says a lot; it gives information about how players perceive the game as it stands now. It gives Blizzard reasons to make drastic changes or continue the choosen direction.

    As for expectations: I think there is a huge drop, over a million. Just going by the amount of qq and people stating they quit.

  16. #356
    Quote Originally Posted by Heresy View Post
    That's quite interesting.
    Seems to fit with my speculation that the current amount of subs will be around 8.3 million in my previous post earlier in this thread (with a worst case 7.5 mill, best case 9 mill).

    They said they sold 1.2 million annual passes. So that is about 10% of the wow population. Of those 1.2 million passes, only 378k are level 90 with the mount. Of course there might be people who have yet to reach level 90, but it still means a potential drop of ~822k+ people from annual passes alone.
    I am not sure how much stock we can put into those numbers for the overall sub numbers as they do not include China nor do we know how many AP holders did not buy MOP but they certainly are interesting. We know that there were 1.2 million people who bought the AP and at the the time that accounted for (very) roughly 25% of the Western player base assuming that no AP holders have quit and these figures are correct they now account for roughly a third of all players making a total of roughly 3.5 million Western subs which I would say is not a million miles from the actual figures (2.7 million first week sales plus another million or so over the following quarter seems reasonable).

    I am sure I've missed something and someone who is better at math that me will be along shortly to prove me wrong.

    Edit I just thought that the AP holders are likely to have more than 1 level 90 character by now which is going to skew the results which will probably make it seem as if AP holders now account for a greater percentage of the population.

    Quote Originally Posted by Synstir View Post
    Well I am interested in the numbers..... to me it says a lot; it gives information about how players perceive the game as it stands now. It gives Blizzard reasons to make drastic changes or continue the choosen direction.

    As for expectations: I think there is a huge drop, over a million. Just going by the amount of qq and people stating they quit.
    Most people that tell everyone they are going to quit; don't.
    Last edited by Pann; 2013-02-07 at 09:21 AM.

  17. #357
    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    I find it rather hilarious that people are already starting in on the whole "this quarter doesn't matter it is the next one that is important" before the numbers are even out yet. A preemptive strike isn't going to make the nonsense any less idiotic.
    You obviously don't understand the workings of subscription services. With a new xpac many people will be subscribed for 3 months, some for 6, many are still shackled by annual pass, some level slowly and realize only after several weeks they don't like the new offerings.

    Even with Cata, which was shit from day one, it took months for the losses to manifest and even longer for Blizzard to react. Devs even did the rehashed troll 5-mans, one of the two dumbest patches in the history of this game - next to voice chat.

    This quarter may bring some indications, but the full financial drama or glory of MoP will become obvious three months from now.

  18. #358
    Pit Lord Strafer's Avatar
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    How long left until the conference?

  19. #359
    Quote Originally Posted by Strafer View Post
    How long left until the conference?
    Enough time to go to the grocery store for popcorn: 8 hrs and 50 min.
    "When i am done with you, you won't trust your own mind."

  20. #360
    Immortal Arbs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Synstir View Post
    Well I am interested in the numbers..... to me it says a lot; it gives information about how players perceive the game as it stands now. It gives Blizzard reasons to make drastic changes or continue the choosen direction.

    As for expectations: I think there is a huge drop, over a million. Just going by the amount of qq and people stating they quit.
    Ussually people who say they quit don't, or have actually quit awhile and try to stir up drama here. You can really only take the I quit posts on WoW forums that pop up once a while seriously most of time its someone who is just trying to get attention and they usually keep playing after the post. You just never know if they really quit unless you know them in-game.

    Its not a new thing its been happening for years people saying they quit & never do. Ussualy when people quit a game they only tell the people they play with they are quitting and even they usually come back. WoW is a very big social game & for the most part people only come back or begin to play is cause of RL friend.

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