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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Nindoriel View Post
    On what basis do you guess? Random numbers?
    I personally rate it judging by when stuff like this happens:

    - New MMO gets released, atleast 400k subs lost
    - WoW has been out to long without updates, lost of 500k
    - The patch we are currently in is too amazing, 300 subs gained

    In the end when they reveal their numbers, I can see if I was right :P

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The fact they announce it this early is a good sign for the group.
    They announce the Q4 results in early Feb every year. This is not unusual.

    I think the game is in a fairly healthy state, though.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Almost every time I have gotten to know a critic personally, they keep up with the criticism but lose the venom." -- Ghostcrawler

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Virtua View Post
    Down to 9 million subs. I think people underestimate the amount of folks that buy an expansion just for the leveling content.
    You can't discount one assumption in favor of another.

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    Hard to do when they need to give the information of the last Quarter ...
    You know these reports are being controlled by independant 3rd party auditors - like The Deutsche Bank.
    ATVI is a stock rated company and so ALL information given to stock holders has to be AUDITED by independant 3rd parties.
    That includes the full report and written conclusions. Can Morhaime lie ? Sure. But when proven he distributed wrong information to stock holders he is risking 20 years or more in jail...
    Some dudes got life sentences just 2 years ago.
    Yup, and it's funny like some other companies make some maneuvers to make every last weeks of their reports point "a future increase in business"... *cough* EA *cough*

    It's amazing how people fall for that 10 times or more.

    Buu <= WHY I LOVE TO PLAY HUNTERS! => Pendleton

  5. #85
    Warchief Byniri's Avatar
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    +/- 100k.

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    PEPE SILVA, PEPE SILVA

  6. #86
    subs down under 8 million because of one reason:

    5 years of doing the exact same thing.

    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by shewkoi View Post
    subs down under 8 million because of one reason:

    5 years of doing the exact same thing.

    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    MoP was an expansion, not a sequel.

  8. #88
    If bots were removed from the totals, sorry I meant "compromised accounts", they'd probably be under 8 million.

    Otherwise, I don't expect a big decline.

  9. #89
    The Insane Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkingtall View Post
    If bots were removed from the totals, sorry I meant "compromised accounts", they'd probably be under 8 million.

    Otherwise, I don't expect a big decline.
    This assumes Blizz already knows 2 million accounts are compromised/intentionally botting.
    Unsubscribed 3/10/2014 - 8/14/2014.
    "Times change."

    Beware the claims of yearly expansions. It's not more hype more often, it's paying more for less. Fewer tiers, no more new levels, no more new races/classes, but an ever-increasing price tag....

  10. #90
    Old God Nerraw's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by McNeil View Post
    I personally rate it judging by when stuff like this happens:

    - New MMO gets released, atleast 400k subs lost
    - WoW has been out to long without updates, lost of 500k
    - The patch we are currently in is too amazing, 300 subs gained

    In the end when they reveal their numbers, I can see if I was right :P
    Considering WoW gained almost a million in the same quarter that GW2 released, I'm not so sure that first point is accurate.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Mojo Risin View Post
    http://www.blizzplanet.com/blog/comm...-on-feb-7-2013


    What do you think we'll learn?
    My predictions:

    • MoP has upped the subscription number to around 11 million, which has then suffered a small decline again to around 10.5 million, fluctuating between patches.
    • Blizzcon 2013 will be announced, and we'll receive a date for the event and for when tickets will go on sale.
    As usual we will learn the mass exodus some whiny players have been continually promising for years still isn't happening and that they never expected it to happen until NEXT quarter as per their usual propaganda.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 12:06 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    200-500k sub drop. Possibly more due to MoP not being released during the Christmas season (meaning players would be anxious for other games around that time).

    Not to mention I believe CRZ still is a hated problem, at least for levelers - not the people in Pandaria.
    What the fuck? This again? Why on earth would people quit the game because the expansion wasn't released during Christmas? That is more idiotic than claiming people would only buy the expansion if it was released around Christmas.

  12. #92
    The Lightbringer UnifiedDivide's Avatar
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    Personally, I don't much care about the sub numbers. If they gain some, good for them. If they lose some, I'm hardly about to cry. Though it will annoy me when we get an influx of threads about WoW dying even if they only lose 1000 subs...

    Seriously, as long as I'm having fun, that's all I need. That and some Blizzcon info...

    Rarely updated...

  13. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by Falrach View Post
    They will just pick the highest subscription-count they had in the past 6 months and call it a gain.
    Why? Cause they gave us no real numbers last call and just want to put MoP in the best possible light.
    And here we go with the spin doctoring already. Listen the reason the numbers weren't announced during the last shareholders meeting was because they had already announced them a few days prior to that as part of their usual press release that they put out shortly after each and every expansion release. There was no need to discuss the numbers because that information was already out.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 12:13 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by MoanaLisa View Post
    That's not how they do it as a rule. They usually report active subscriptions as of the final day of the quarter, i.e. 12/31/12. If a subscription expires on 01/01/13, it'll be active on the 31st and count. Generally you don't just get to pick the best number for this sort of financial reporting.

    We'll see though. In fact, they aren't really required to release any subscription information at all, just financials.
    While they aren't obligated to report actual subscription numbers they are still obligated to be accurate about any and all information they do release to investors.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 12:16 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Cows For Life View Post
    Annual pass is expired for a lot of people. It's anyone's guess as to how it turns out.
    Well seeing as how there were only 1.2 million annual pass holders I'm not too terribly concerned. Most people who got the annual pass weren't planning to quit the game anyway.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 12:21 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Don't turn this into an MMO vs MMO thing. I'm talking about profits and stock holders. They can care less about how well they're doing against their competition... they care if they themselves get a loss.

    EDIT: I also don't believe D3 is doing that well. It's almost pure crickets at this point in the game's life cycle, especially considering how many have left after the first month... therefore the RMAH is probably underperforming very much to their expectations. Trust me... box sales don't matter this time around... Blizz isn't about box-sales anymore.
    D3 isn't an mmo and as such the shareholders aren't terribly concerned who is and isn't still playing it. They made their profit at release so that is over and done with as far as investors are concerned. RMAH or not they still made a significant amount of profit and certainly made more than what was originally spent on developing D3.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 12:25 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Alewen View Post
    I am going to predict a very sizable dip in subs due to forced dailies and CRZ most definitely made me and others unsubscribe.
    And yet subscriptions went up by 1 million despite all the screaming and crying over cross realm zones which had been implemented a month before and we were promised a mass exodus like no other which never came to pass. If it didn't happen then what makes you think it is going to happen now?

  14. #94
    Stood in the Fire Arkkitehti's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerraw View Post
    Considering WoW gained almost a million in the same quarter that GW2 released, I'm not so sure that first point is accurate.
    Considering WoW got an expansion in the same quarter that GW2 released, the first point can still be fairly accurate, there is just no mention on what he thinks happens when an expansion is released.

    So, I'm not entirely sure how these things are measured, but it's from the highest point of the quarter, right? If so, then the sub numbers will stay more or less same, since MoP was released, what, a week before Q4 started? And I assume Q3 numbers are from MoP release too.

    Now I don't wanna be the guy who makes excuses as to why WoW actually has less subs than what they say it does, but if the numbers are almost exactly the same as Q3, I'd assume that the numbers are from early October and the numbers from December are actually lower. (Since they couldn't be higher.) Obviously just my assumptions on how things'll go.

    At least for the west. I can't say anything for the east, I don't really know at what point they got MoP. So if there are bigger changes in the numbers, (drops or rises.) I'd guess they'd be from the east.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mojo Risin View Post
    http://www.blizzplanet.com/blog/comm...-on-feb-7-2013


    What do you think we'll learn?
    My predictions:

    • MoP has upped the subscription number to around 11 million, which has then suffered a small decline again to around 10.5 million, fluctuating between patches.
    • Blizzcon 2013 will be announced, and we'll receive a date for the event and for when tickets will go on sale.
    What I would like to see : well deserved below 9 millions subs numbers.
    What I think we'll see : between 9.5 and 10 millions. Maybe slightly above 10 millions.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by shewkoi View Post
    subs down under 8 million because of one reason:

    5 years of doing the exact same thing.

    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    dailies
    purples
    same crappy models
    Not everyone that plays wow expects Blizzard to fully reinvent the game each and every expansion. Want a different game? Go buy one.

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arkkitehti View Post
    So, I'm not entirely sure how these things are measured, but it's from the highest point of the quarter, right? If so, then the sub numbers will stay more or less same, since MoP was released, what, a week before Q4 started? And I assume Q3 numbers are from MoP release too.
    Ah good point, didn't occurred to me.
    So I guess you're right it'll probably be "over 10 millions" like in the previous conference call.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 08:39 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by xanzul View Post
    Most people who got the annual pass weren't planning to quit the game anyway.
    I'm not so sure. Given how little content there was during Cata, I would not be surprised if some of these people felt screwed over by Blizzard.
    In fact I've seen several of them pretty angry about the annual pass.

    Though that doesn't mean it'll have any significant impact on the sub numbers.
    I'm aware it's only some guessing and anecdotal evidence.

  18. #98
    Well, it seems that mist is a wee bit more well received than cata at this stage of the game. I dont know the difference between raid participation now and then? Or well, now there's LFR that opens up raiding for everyone and their moms... in cata noone pugged raids at start, or perhaps some on big servers but I was on a medium one back then when I played and there was nothing. So guess people should be pleased with that?
    Otherwise, I dont know how gamebreaking forced dailys are in order to keep players interested in the game. It's the way of wow and they said mist would be many patches with updates in daily quests and then some with raids... shouldnt come as a surprise if dailys are the dominating part of the game. And I guess noone would buy the xpac knowing this if they didnt like taking part of it :P

    Overall, daily quests and broken pvp seems to be only complaints. And pvp was always broken in wow so it shouldnt have any effect on people leaving or not, the sane ones left wow pvp long ago =) Leaves us to dailys and I dont think that should be making people quit, especially since it was the marketed content of the game. The ganking on pvp servers shouldnt be any problem either, not many people leveled up in the world in the past and I find it hard to believe the numbers have reached such a major increase. I dont think many people start playing wow now, most people are ol players and they already got mains on max. So I dont think it would be anything really gamebreaking.

    To sum up, I think that there is some smaller decrease in subs, mostly because of people who bought the xpac and tried level up and then it was back to same ol and they got tired and split to something else. But sure, I would hope to see other numbers =) However considering there isnt that much complaits overall from what I see when I check this part of mmo champion once or twice a month, I think most people still are rather pleased with current state of the game. But its always interesting follow this conference calls, to see how things goes.
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  19. #99
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    Surprisingly, most people posting in this thread think the numbers will be positive.

    That's awesome to see!

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by dokhidamo View Post
    This assumes Blizz already knows 2 million accounts are compromised/intentionally botting.
    Of course they know. I'm sure they don't know each and every account but I would guarantee you they have very good ballpark data. They'd be massively incompetent if they didn't.

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