Just did mogu'shan vaults on my freshly dinged shadow priest, 6 bosses and used 2 eldercharms. Got shoulders, weapon and a neck.
Assuming you're using a hyperbole, but the nitpicker in me still feels inclined to point out how unlikely your hypothetical situation is. At a 99% drop rate, killing 16 bosses a week for 9 weeks, the chance of getting nothing (unless you count unneeded repeat drops as "nothing") is 1 in 10 to the 288th power.
That is several, several orders of magnitude lower than your chance of spontaneously combusting on the way to school or work today.
Yes, it could happen, but the chance is so low that it's one of those examples of a probability that is effectively zero. Given every human who has ever lived returning from the dead, subscribing to WoW, and killing every 5.0 boss in LFR every week for a year, the chance is still so close to zero as to be effectively zero.
It's all RNG, while the chance of getting 16 fail bags is somewhat small (around 1% i'd say) it still can happen. Just like looting a rare raid mount like Ashes of Al'ar is luck, this is the case of un-luck.
Open those bags by the way, I think they were going to randomize loot in them.
This is correct. Also notable to add that you will only get items that are suitable for your role (tank, healer, dos). So, even if the boss drops tank-tagged items your class can use, you will not get them unless you have signed up as tank. That way people don't get items for specs they never play.
Not sure if you can get items for roles which you signed up for, but did not get assigned. Doubt it, though.
On another note, Bashiok confirmed that the new drop rate is higher than combined rate + coin before:
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8087869811#14
Help control the population. Have your blood elf spayed or neutered.
One thing that is probably important to note, the spec you signed up for doesn't matter at all in terms of gear. It's the spec that you're currently specced into that the game is checking against. IE. if someone who signed up for prot, but is in a fury spec wins loot, it will be from the fury table not the prot table. If you want to use your elder charms on a different role than you signed up for, switch specs before you hit roll and it will roll accordingly.
Edit: As to the new percentage, I wish it was higher. I really don't see the problem in a 50% rate. That means you at least have to on average run LFR more than two times to "catch up" when catch up is only the past LFR tier. Compared to the one day catch ups from the last two expansions from 5 mans, a forced two week hold seems perfectly acceptable (and even at two weeks that's getting pretty lucky). Plus add in that it would only be a 50% chance to get an item, not necessarily the one you need/don't already have. In it's current state LFR is a huge roadblock which in itself is annoying, what's more annoying is that it's a completely RNG road block now. With that said, it certainly could have been bumped up to 50% but from the way they're announcing it it sounds more like it was around a 15% from bag and normal roll, so around a 30% chance and they're bumping it up a tad over that. Of course this is pure speculation though.
Last edited by refire; 2013-03-06 at 10:04 PM.
atleast now there's some change to the 28g 50s BS. got both 36g 49s and 26g 1s from my bags today :3
I still don't understand why blizz can't make so every time u get a bag, your chance to get actual loot increases by say 5-10%, and resets as soon as you get it.
Then u'd be able to get at least one drop from 16 bosses.
1.08372338E-16 %. It's a number so insanely small that writing it out would take a hell of a lot of effort. It's possible for a black hole to suddenly come into existance in earth orbit, swallowing us all up and actually spitting us out again. Doesn't mean it'll happen, ever.
I did HoF and Terrace on my alt monk, and won 2 pair of gloves, boots and sha touched staff.
Yeah the droprate isn't mindblowing high, but I used to run LFR for weeks and didnt win single item. Seems like an improvement for me.
I got absolutely nothing for the first 8 weeks, got my first drop in week 9, and have had 3 drops total. It's certainly entirely possible as things are now to have that kind of drop rate.
Although obviously your example is much higher probability than is in the system currently the point still remains that with this system that outcome is still happening. And it's pretty rubbish, especially when people keep telling you that lfr is a viable option for gearing up.
Out of curiosity what is the probability my luck would be as bad as it has been?
Last edited by Windfury; 2013-03-07 at 12:23 AM.
WoW is clearly for the people who are bad at math.
For example, it takes 6 months to get the full set of valor gears.
Lots of people are doing it
I tried SWTOR.
Got something I can use every week in LFR.
Last edited by xenogear3; 2013-03-07 at 01:25 AM.
by that count (1-30 is something 31-70 is a bag) i had a 0.00162841359% chance of getting the 18 in a row i got.... hint: i dont think its 30%
Wow, and I thought I was unlucky for doing 3 bosses (and using three coins) and getting nothing but gold for all 6 rolls. lol
Thanks for the lies, blizz. 'Preciate it.
Look! Words!
I got 5 bits from 3 bosses. I got like 8 bits of loot today. Thank you elder charms
I have got more items last night from LFR then i had in 6 weeks > so yes defenitly a higher drop rate.
Maybe not noticable at once for everyone.
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange Aeons even Death may die.
Its great reading all this and knowing that most of the people here are the type of people that back up old school wow saying stuff like "Back in the day i used to work hard for gear! bring the game back to the old days etc etc " then saying the game sucks because you dont get max geared from LFR in the 1st 2 weeks... seems legit...
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