Mafia 26: Gods and Cults

[Robozerim]

I heard something about 'escaping from chains' as I passed an alley, but yours sounds slightly more ominous.

It was poetic in nature. I have received no message saying I'm not allowed to reveal it, so here's the letter slipped in my pocket for your reading pleasure.

"All of us have dreams, but most of us live nightmares
Every soul has a past, every soul has their scares
Now that I realize what my soul has gone through
Our souls connected, my fate is to slaughter you"

Anybody know where it's from? Currently I don't know whether to admire this little bit of poetry, or to fear for my life.

[Rollo]

Very suspicious comment from Simca (referencing the 5/26). I had thought about it earlier, but bypassed it fairly quickly as well.

vote Simca

[ELYPOP]

I got a message too. Something about fish and doorways.

Nah, I'm kidding, no one gives me ominous messages.

Anyways, Kray has roleclaimed. That doesn't prove anything in my book. Sorry. And since someone's gotta get lynched, he comes across as most scummy to me so far. And if he is a VT then, well, shit. But it's part of the game, I guess.

Vote: Krayzy

[Anakso]

Vote:krayzy

To suspicious. Voting blue, saying he doesn't care if town waste a lynch on him and randomly claiming VT.

[Simca]

Very suspicious comment from Simca (referencing the 5/26). I had thought about it earlier, but bypassed it fairly quickly as well.

vote Simca

Lol, if there are 5 Mafia, we are really, REALLY screwed (5 Mafia + X Cultists) or we have a ton of TPRs.

I doubt the number is that high; it'd probably be like 3. 4 absolute tops. I was just using a high number for the sake of argument because keleb was being quite unreasonable from a statistics perspective.

[Dyra]

It was poetic in nature. I have received no message saying I'm not allowed to reveal it, so here's the letter slipped in my pocket for your reading pleasure.

"All of us have dreams, but most of us live nightmares
Every soul has a past, every soul has their scares
Now that I realize what my soul has gone through
Our souls connected, my fate is to slaughter you"

Anybody know where it's from? Currently I don't know whether to admire this little bit of poetry, or to fear for my life.

Found it. Its from this cheerful little poem.

Currently I'm choosing the latter option.

Though I'm not too sure this is actual heckling. It certainly doesn't seem like the work of one person anyway, which leads me to believe that if it's not some evil psychological test being administered by Professor Silkku, this is the work of the cultists. The actual conversion still happens at night, but during the day, each member can distribute a message of fear.

I got (also from Thresh's song):

Drag the chains, drag the chains,
With all the strength you may!
Drag the chains, drag the chains,
‘Ere they drag you away!

This was also D1.

---------- Post added 2013-05-10 at 09:58 AM ----------

Lol, if there are 5 Mafia, we are really, REALLY screwed (5 Mafia + X Cultists) or we have a ton of TPRs.

I doubt the number is that high; it'd probably be like 3. 4 absolute tops. I was just using a high number for the sake of argument because keleb was being quite unreasonable from a statistics perspective.

You must never use absolutes in this game. It'll just wind up biting you in the ass.

And tbh statistics doesn't work here. If it is incredibly unlikely to happen, it will. A 5/26 chance is nothing.

However, Silkku did say he wanted less of a power frenzy game with more VTs, so I'm inclined to agree with you in that the Mafia probably is 3-4 in strength. I'm more inclined to say 4 though, since it's unlikely there are Traitors to be converted due to the presence of the cultists.

[Simca]

You must never use absolutes in this game. It'll just wind up biting you in the ass.

And tbh statistics doesn't work here. If it is incredibly unlikely to happen, it will. A 5/26 chance is nothing.

However, Silkku did say he wanted less of a power frenzy game with more VTs, so I'm inclined to agree with you in that the Mafia probably is 3-4 in strength. I'm more inclined to say 4 though, since it's unlikely there are Traitors to be converted due to the presence of the cultists.

Yes, I'm just making the point that it is MORE likely that if Foxxi was randomly picking, she would have gotten something in the remaining non-Mafia group, so it is more likely she is a cop than not a cop.

Two different people (keleb and Rigimi) posted in ways suggesting that Foxxi was -likely- randomly guessing, which is actually just flat-out false.

[Krayzy]

I actually had a fun little plan in place for when I claimed VT and I think it would have worked out well with me not getting lynched and using up a NK but a lot has happened today. I've got to be at the hospital this weekend for some tests. Kill me off or don't. It doesn't matter to me because I don't know how active I can be going forward. Might be best to just have the mods kill me instead of wasting a lynch on a VT though.

Before I'm killed one way or another.

Vote Blueobelisk

No evidence behind that but my gut is usually pretty good.

[keleb]

I doubt the number is that high; it'd probably be like 3. 4 absolute tops. I was just using a high number for the sake of argument because keleb was being quite unreasonable from a statistics perspective.

Depending on the number of bombs and traitors I don't find 5 to be an unlikely number of the mafia. But starting out with three there's still a 12 % chance she randomly pointed to a mafia which isn't highly unlikely. I'd point you to a great comic monologue if you spoke Swedish (which I suppose you don't, am I the only one in this game? Silkku might perhaps) about it but what can be pulled out of it and into this context is that if a grave nuclear accident happen only once every 1000 years (this is the estimate used in the monologue, but I think I've heard estimates of more than 1000 years), how come we've had three in less than 50 years? Just because it's not above 50 % probability doesn't mean it can't happen.

You can look at that 12 % and say that it's unlikely to have been random and you can also use that in with what foxxi said and then you weight that in with what someone says and does. With a sample size of just one though, you can't put to much into the probability. Like I mentioned before, foxxi could have been throwing falbacca under the bus. She might be a cultist, she might be a normal VT, she might be TPR and a few more options as well that we may or may not know about to exist as this is a closed came. So everyone will build their own opinion on her and weigh that probability in there, but don't think of it as it being a 12 % chance that she's a VT and randomed falbacca and disregard it at that.

If I go by what foxxi says, then I don't think her to have gotten the info from being TPR. The first post hints at her being, and then there are two posts denying that followed by a post that slightly hints at knowing more than telling. All those four I rate of higher value than probability atm. The rating of those four are harder though and I can't (and shouldn't be able to) come up with a conclusion about foxxi. For now I settle with that I deem it less likely than average that she's scum and will pick someone else to vote for.

About Krayzy who many seem to be suspicious of I can't really say I see anything sticking out to warrant a vote. Feels like what makes people vote him is for saying things they don't like to hear, but I'll have to dig deeper.

There's something about Anakso that I can't put my finger on. I'll have to go through previous games.

There's something about Dyra.

Blueobelisk I'm still suspicious of. I thought I'd have time to go through and write something about it now, but I overslept this morning so I'll have to hope I have time to do it tonight. I'm surprised no one else picked up (and mentioned) what he did this game morning.

---------- Post added 2013-05-10 at 12:09 PM ----------

Yes, I'm just making the point that it is MORE likely that if Foxxi was randomly picking, she would have gotten something in the remaining non-Mafia group, so it is more likely she is a cop than not a cop.

Two different people (keleb and Rigimi) posted in ways suggesting that Foxxi was -likely- randomly guessing, which is actually just flat-out false.

See it that way, I see it that I'm saying it is "not unlikely" which is different from "likely". See it this way. How many TPR are there that would give a clear result to the scummyness of someone in one night? About 3 perhaps? So there's 3/28 (~11 %) that foxxi knew more than she said and wasn't randoming. So lower chance she's TPR than that she guess right with random. Why can we use one probability and not the other?

---------- Post added 2013-05-10 at 12:14 PM ----------

I think I may have seen someone connecting Krayzy and me from us both voting Blueobelisk on D1 and I'll probably join my vote to his later today. You should read something into that. What you read into it is up to you. I'd probably read, less likely scum but it can be WIFOMed. And no, this isn't a claim from me.

[Deleted]

I am sorry keleb that I took your statistics argument out of context, I didn't see you took your statistics from symca, who did apply the appropriate caveats.
I still disagree that even though it is statistically possible that she randomned, I still think that is a fairly big leap to make.
So for now ill stick with my previous vote but i'll still give you a FoS.

UNVOTE

VOTE Krayzy

[Kuthe]

I actually had a fun little plan in place for when I claimed VT and I think it would have worked out well with me not getting lynched and using up a NK but a lot has happened today. I've got to be at the hospital this weekend for some tests. Kill me off or don't. It doesn't matter to me because I don't know how active I can be going forward. Might be best to just have the mods kill me instead of wasting a lynch on a VT though.

Before I'm killed one way or another.

Vote Blueobelisk

No evidence behind that but my gut is usually pretty good.

D:
Good Luck with it all Krayzy.

Might as well just do it.
*Follow the random lynch trail. Follow the random lynch trail*

Vote: Blueobelisk

[Dyra]

Until Foxxi is revealed to be the Cop I'm still going to regard her with suspicion. While throwing Fal to the lynch would be a risk, if things go the Mafia's way (which they seem to be), it could be a gamble that would pay off. Perhaps it was a necessity (Fal knowing she was going inactive due to her new job for example), so they were taking the inevitable into their own hands and using it for their own gain. I just cannot bring myself to trust what is effectively a weak Cop claim that was made on D1.

Though, technically they could be correct. I'm bored enough to try to think through the possibilities.

Since Fal was revealed to be an ordinary Mafian, if the Mafia is 5 strong and Foxxi is the Cop:
If there is no Godfather, she had a 5/27 (18.5%) chance of choosing a Mafian.
If there is a Godfather, she had a 4/27 (14.8%) chance of identifying a Mafian.

If Foxxi is the Cop, received a negative result, and picked at random anyway:
If Celtic wasn't Mafia = 5/24 (20.8%)
If Celtic was Mafia = 4/24 (16.7%)

Now, this is where it gets fun. If Foxxi isn't the Cop, and just picked at random.
If Foxxi is SK or Town and Celtic wasn't Mafia = 1/5 (20%).
If Foxxi is SK or Town and Celtic was Mafia = 4/25 (16%).
If Foxxi is a Cultist (lets say there's 2 left after the night phase), they didn't target Fal for conversion, and Celtic wasn't Mafia = 5/24 (20.4%).
If Foxxi is a Cultist (assuming 2 left), they didn't target Fal for conversion, Celtic was Mafia = 4/24 (16.7%).
If Foxxi is a Cultist (again, let's say there's 2 left), they did target Fal for conversion (I'm assuming Mafians and SKs can't be converted, and that the Cultists are converting rather than killing), then it's close to a 100% chance (since Fal could have been protected, or the Cultist making the conversion could have been Jailed/RB) she knew they were lynching a Scum, or a Bomb (if they're present). All roles the Cultists want removed from the game. OK, there's the chance of Fal getting targeted that night to consider as well (1/25), but it's still a very hefty chance overall.
If Foxxi is a Mafian throwing Fal to the lynch then it's 100%.

Now bear in mind that lot was just to find a Mafian specifically. To find any Scum, assuming 5 Mafia, 2 Cultists and 1 SK composition left after N1:
If Foxxi is Town (Cop or otherwise) and Celtic wasn't Scum = 8/25 (32%).
If Foxxi is Town and Celtic was Scum = 7/25 (28%).
If Foxxi is a Cultist and Celtic wasn't Scum = 6/24 (25%)
If Foxxi is a Cultist and Celtic was Scum = 5/24 (20.8%)
If Foxxi is a SK and Celtic wasn't Scum = 4/24 (16.7%)
If Foxxi is Mafia, then no matter what Celtic is, it's still 100%

If she is a Tracker that managed to pull of a 1/162 track on Fal (1/27 of choosing Fal, 1/5 chance Fal was chosen to kill Deca) or a Lookout looking over Deca's house (1/27). Well... remember what I said about statistics going out the window?

I apologise for anything wrong, bad maths and for probably making Firebert and a few others want to cry.

---------- Post added 2013-05-10 at 11:58 AM ----------

Bah! I forgot the Godfather possibilities. Well fuck.

[Simca]

While throwing Fal to the lynch would be a risk, if things go the Mafia's way (which they seem to be), it could be a gamble that would pay off.

1) If there is no Godfather, this is actually a massive risk. If there is a Godfather, then it isn't that much of a risk. (Though actually that depends on the rules for the Godfather - if they allow replacements or not.)

Perhaps it was a necessity (Fal knowing she was going inactive due to her new job for example), so they were taking the inevitable into their own hands and using it for their own gain.

2) Very good point. In fact, a far, far better point than anyone else has brought up. Foxxi already established that they know each other very well and play WoW together.

Well, if she doesn't die tonight, she becomes far more suspicious.


(Unrelated)

The Blueobelisk votes really bother me.

Does he not usually play Mafia or something? keleb is suspicious of him for what is his normal posting style he uses all over this forum... if Blue frequents these games there is no reason for keleb to be suspicious.

I mean I can't believe people are voting to lynch somebody who lynched a Mafia Goon D1. That just screams scum.

Why? You would likely have a better result voting for literally anyone else (including me even).

[Rigimi44]

Thanks for re wording what I briefly covered on my last post, Dyra. That's kind of why I'm still a little suspicious of Foxxi. But I'll put that on the backburner.

So, it sort of sounds as if Krayzy isn't a VT and instead is a role that can potentially absorb a lynch/NK (similar to Uggor's role next game perhaps?). I'm a little hesitant to jump on that vote train, just because of what happened last game with Uggor.

[Blueobelisk]

My internet at home is being stupid so this morning I couldn't check before school. I saw some comments on my phone but it's annoying to type from there, so I'm typing from a school desktop.

Uhhhhh I really don't see why people are still voting for me. I think Kray is just an asshole, and he's not playing VT the way he told me I should when I was VT when he hosted the game. (Which is to be outspoken and point stuff out so your Town Power Roles don't have too, and to try and take a NK.) I don't believe his VT claim, since he apparently did? I missed it.

Anyway, I don't think Foxxi is cop anymore since she changed from Rollo to Rigi (or vice versa?). Either way, while one of those people who voted for her seems to be a good target, I don't think she has empirical proof that that person is scum, so perhaps we should keep our minds open to vote for someone else.

Hyper, sorry I just googled the lines and found that text lol, I don't have anything to draw from that just yet.

Those LoL kids singing was fucking creepy....

I don't really see why Kuthe is voting for me. As I said, Kray is probably just an asshole, but why would Kuthe need to bandwagon on a post with no evidence besides Kray's gut feelings?

Normally I'd be one to jump on whatever math you guys are doing, I love math, but it seems pointless to try and see how likely it was for Fox to pick a Mafia on random, since I no longer believe she has a Town Power Role. (Because of the fact she switched from Rigi to Rollo or whatever, and that she's being as adamant about it as she was with Falb. But who knows, maybe she just made a typo and really did investigate one of them.)

I look forward to rereading these pages and seeing what more people add on, but for now I have to go and study, I have a final at 12 and I have some hardcore essay writing and studying to do until then. I'll be home around 3 and my internet should be back up by then. I'll place my vote tonight (since deadline is in the morning).

[Kuthe]

I don't really see why Kuthe is voting for me. As I said, Kray is probably just an asshole, but why would Kuthe need to bandwagon on a post with no evidence besides Kray's gut feelings?

Totally going to make you friends around here.

Actually, when I read Krayzy's post, I thought he was the one who started the bandwagon on Falb yesterday, and so just decided to follow the lead for shits n gigglez, but just then I realized that, it was in-fact Foxxim.
But due to your comment, I'm sticking with my vote on you.

[keleb]

Well, if she doesn't die tonight, she becomes far more suspicious.

Not at all. There is a risk for scum to target foxxi as well.

The Blueobelisk votes really bother me.

Does he not usually play Mafia or something? keleb is suspicious of him for what is his normal posting style he uses all over this forum... if Blue frequents these games there is no reason for keleb to be suspicious.

I mean I can't believe people are voting to lynch somebody who lynched a Mafia Goon D1. That just screams scum.

Why? You would likely have a better result voting for literally anyone else (including me even).

I'm suspicious of him for his "stunt" early this game day. Before that I was suspicious of him for his behavior rather than posting style. In a bit of a hurry now so can't explain that further, you have to go back yourself and read my post there.

There are usually a few scum voting against a fellow scum buddy to hide in the masses. This time there were few voters on falbacca so perhaps there weren't any, but I would think there was at least one and I do not rule anyone on that list to be mafia. Assume just one mafia on that list ad there's no real change in probability voting for someone on that list.

[kel]

Totally going to make you friends around here.

Actually, when I read Krayzy's post, I thought he was the one who started the bandwagon on Falb yesterday, and so just decided to follow the lead for shits n gigglez, but just then I realized that, it was in-fact Foxxim.
But due to your comment, I'm sticking with my vote on you.

when mafia turns hostile

[Robozerim]

Thanks Dyra for finding the poem for me, the rest of it is just as creepy as the part I got. Anyway, I notice a motif with these messages: souls. Thresh is the chain warden and collects the souls of those he kills, and mine went on about souls a fair bit as well. Well, I suppose escaping chains may not exactly have something to do with souls, unless it's another part of Thresh's song, or just meant to be referencing him as the chain warden.

Moving away from that...I was thinking. If I was a mafian, I don't think I would have waited as long as I did before trying to save Falbacca, I would have voted significantly earlier than the last hour or two. Let's see if I can get a list of people who voted for somebody other than Falbacca not too long after Foxxi's vote against her.

Robozerim-on myself, here I was trying to reduce suspicion....well, if I were mafia it'd be stupid to try to deflect a lynch onto myself, and besides it was totally the die of fate's fault.
Krayzy-He was all over the place, Xanjori, Falbacca, Foxxi and finally Blueobelisk. He did switch to Falbacca when he saw that Foxxi may have soft claimed cop, then switched to Foxxi after seeing her deny cop (as a joke I believe he said), then eventually switched to Blue as the first voter against him.
Xanjori- Voted Lysah, never changed his vote after that. Odd to try to lynch the unlynchable if he was going to save Falbacca.
Holz- Also voted Lysah, but switched to falbacca at the end.
Hypermode- voted Keleb, switched to Falbacca relatively early.
Uggorthaholy-Elypop, Simca, Robozerim, then finally Blueobelisk. Basically a less outspoken version of Krayzy's vote jumping.
Elypop-Uggorthaholy (retaliation for his vote against him I think) then Falbacca.
Dyra- Uggorthaholy, and she didn't move after that.
Simca-Uggorthaholy, then no vote at all.

I think I'll stop right about there. Amongst these, I'd say the most suspicious are Krayzy, Uggorthaholy, Dyra and Simca.

unvote vote: Uggorthaholy

FoS: Krayzy, Dyra, Simca

[ELYPOP]

Uggorthaholy (retaliation for his vote against him I think)

That vote wasn't serious. It was a joke vote in retaliation, just as you said. Just wanted to clarify.