with free to play is would technically have no subscribers.
then with the inevitable drop in support and content releases due to no income it would most likely remove more people from the game than it attracted.
with free to play is would technically have no subscribers.
then with the inevitable drop in support and content releases due to no income it would most likely remove more people from the game than it attracted.
It will decline. Perhaps a slight increase in the beginning, but after 2-3 months subscriber numbers will drop like a brick.
A F2P game requires a different business model, one that binds semi-required upgrades to an item shop. The current items in the Blizzard Store just don't cut it - you can't run WoW by selling a few vanity items (mounts, pets). Therefore, Blizzard will either have to put limits on the current features in the game and allow subscribed members access to those features, or just spend less resources on WoW (e.g. less content patches/expansions). This will piss off a lot of players, new and old, and will probably cause a loss of players/subscribers in the long run.
I'm no business analyst by any means, but I really doubt Blizzard could keep delivering the same quality if WoW were to go F2P. Also, they'll probably throw in another annual pass once Titan is about to release.
The number of players that would rejoin the game given a f2p model is massive. There would probably be a tremendous player base. But it would hyperaccelerate the decline in average player skill, thousands of cesspool guilds would spawn from the masses and progression on a server by server basis would be no better off. The long standing players from the early years of WoW would probably quit and the game would experience a slow death by players no longer playing to see the World and just looking to beat up some gimp boss in an lfr.
It would be a sellout way to make a few bucks on real money store, but is also one of the few ways to potentially "Kill" the game itself.
Naftc, "Hunters are the cheapest class in game and when played right are more deadly than a train plowing through a field of bunnies covered in napalm"
Subscribers or active playerbase?
If the first, I would probably expect a slight decrease, but with cash shop transactions an overall increase in revenue.
If the second, huge increases, mostly because Blizzard already uses "creative numbers" to tell how many people are subscribed in China. They'd add every single account that was even logged into over the quarter to measure their active playerbase.
If you are particularly bold, you could use a Shiny Ditto. Do keep in mind though, this will infuriate your opponents due to Ditto's beauty. Please do not use Shiny Ditto. You have been warned.
It's more likely to see RMT (real money trade) in one form or another in the game than a straight move to F2P first.
First step is done with Black Market AH, the infrastructure for a cash shop in game is already in place (you didn't think that was incidental did you now).
All they have to do is put gold on battle.net shop, add more items to Black Market AH (you can already get top of the line gear but limited items/slots) and you're one step closer to F2P and P2W.
(and they'll also have the perfect comeback to 'pay to win' arguments too: "you can still farm that gold in-game so it's not pay to win, it's pay to have a life")
So... I think we'll see that and other gradual steps with game systems adjusting to a different business model before an actual switch if ever.
A 'surprise switch' in the form of an announcement "tomorrow" so to speak would kill the game imho like others have said.
(I'm not even sure the initial surge of new/returning players would be enough to counterbalance the exodus of currently active players but in the mid-term WoW can't compete with other F2P offerings out or coming out)
I think it will be enough to steady it out.
Not enough to increase it, as you're still looking at the need for graphical and engine updates.
WoW is simply too polarized for F2P to help it. Only those who already want to return will return. So essentially stable, maybe up 1M at most.
FFXIV - Maduin (Dynamis DC)
There will be more overall accounts but I see no reason for Blizzard to go f2p. The reason other games went f2p because they didn't get as much money as they expected with sub model. WoW is still making a lot of money with this model. WoW will go f2p when it's more profitable than current model. It's that simple.
With 275 million dollars in the last quarter alone that "f2p" point is far from being reached.
Let's do the count: every game that makes 50 million dollars a year is considered a huge success (EVE like). So unless WOW tumbles under 50 million dollars on a quarter basis, f2p is not going to happen, because 200 million dollars a year is an awesome lot of money.
However: due to the huge number of hardcore Blizzard/WOW fans I even doubt this revenue number is going to be reached in the next years.
What will happen is dual package deals: like giving free Hearthstone packs for monthly subs and of course dual subscriptions for the price of "one" with Blizzard's next MMO and of course ditto deals on beta access to various upcoming games like BASS, Titan in beta etc....
In 5 years I see a Blizzard subscription to access all games, beta play and e-sports. That subs number will always hoover around 6-12 million depending on new launches. Probably on a yearly basis.
So no f2p WOW within 5 years. Too many hardcore Blizzard fans.
Last edited by BenBos; 2013-05-28 at 07:34 AM.
Assuming they found a business model that worked it would increase a little I feel. If the business model is good then the player base will increase a lot.
If WoW goes F2P, they have to adopt a microtransaction business model. How could they? Their focus is all endgame raids! They'd have to either charge for raiding, or change their development to item collection/socialization. Either way they lose more subscribers than the fee-based model keeps.
Sorry, but they're stuck with the subscription fees.
The plural of anecdote is not "data". It's "Bayesian inference".
Really think you need to edit your post & title
If you mean number of players, then sure it will have more players.
But the sub number will go down for sure.
The real trick of course is making MORE money from all the people that are in the "F2P" mode than unsubbed.
I really hope that when it happens they take a model like TERA and Rift and not like SW:ToR where they where close to charging people for action bars....
One interesting idea I have in the back of my head is something like "BlizzPass".
You pay $15 a month and you get access to every single blizzard product.
No subs, no box fees.
I think I would go for something like that, but then I am paying the $15 a month just for WoW so I am not the person they are trying to attract.
Last edited by mmoc3dde1cb131; 2013-05-28 at 08:49 AM.
I was thinking a bit more long term (we all know this is not happening tomorrow right).
So D3 Expac, Titan, next WoW expansion maybe a free pack of hearthstone cards a month or something.
They have quite a few brand loyal customers it would be nice to see them rewarded (I was actually a big fan of Annual Pass and wish they would do something similar again).