Ideal scenarios never work, and applying them to real life situations only drags you down in the long run. You can be popular and liked all you want, that 5% is going to matter in the end.
Probability doesn't come into it, and there are a lot more factors that go into one's willingness to improve than just their nice/"not nice" attitude. You should know better than this, because for the first time in I don't know how long, you're coming off as uneducated, which is extremely unlike you. You are nice and all, but expecting the best option to be the 'nice' one is little more than an idealistic fallacy, and this is coming from an idealist.