Predictions for next quarter subs!

[sandmoth12]

I am a pessimistic person, and in these types of threads I usually type about how wow is going to lose subs, but I think that wow is going to gain some subs this next quarter. Mainly because lots of students from college, high school, and even lower levels are out for the summer. Once school starts back in the fall there will be a drastic decrease in subs.

[Sniperpally]

There's really not much to say, everyone including blizzard expects subs to drop. The contention is over why. While subs are on a generally downward trend we may see some slight rebounds on major content releases as people check out the new stuff, but overall its a question of the spirit of the game. Right now its leaning towards the on rails single player experience and subs are also dropping. It will be interesting to see if they believe a course change is even possible or if the downward trajectory of wow is inevitable regardless of design choices. If they think that is the case you can see lots more short term cash grab features being introduced.

[DrSteveBrule]

If people are off the summer vacation wouldn't they be more likely to quit or stay away from WoW?

[mvaliz]

Next quarterly report probably won't be until early august - so it's a bit early to predict.

As the other person said, it's more than most likely going to be a loss again - even Blizz is expecting it as such.

[Thimagryn]

If SoO comes out during that time, players will return. People leave when there's lack of content, come back when there's new content. It's always been a shift of numbers when new content is being introduced, and this is a patch that everyone is waiting for.

As for realistic numbers, whether they go up or down is based on what the majority of casuals playing think of SoO content, since they're the ones who are shifting it so drastically. Frankly, I don't know enough about the Chinese market to know if SoO is something people over there care about or if Age of Wushu is more important.

[Chickat]

7.7m. the following quarter will be 7.5m because of 5.4 The quarter after that will be 8m because of next xpac hype, and the quarter where the xpac launches will be around 9m

[Rucati]

If it's after 5.4 then I'd expect 500k-1mil subs lost, if it's before 5.4 then probably 1mil-1.5mil. Since we don't know the exact dates of either it's hard to tell, but it's no secret people come back for big content patches, since this has the pseudo realm merges, a new tier raid, that new single player thing, and some PvP change (at least they've hinted at it) it seems to have something for everybody, so if it gets released before any sub numbers become official I assume that it would have a relatively large impact. On the other hand, if it gets released after the numbers come out, I'd imagine it will be a rather large drop in subs.

[Deleted]

A lot of other games in the market have went free to play over the past few quarters, that's settling down now so those people are deciding what game they'd like to play.

I'd guess that the numbers will be similar to what they were last quarter, if not higher because of SoO.

We're never, ever going to see peaks of what we had during WotLK, people just aren't as interested in MMO's anymore, and the China MMO fan base is spreading out a lot more. If we see peaks they will be very small, and it'd be during a Burning Legion expansion with Sargeras as an end boss.

[Aventhos]

I would say its a going to be a 100-200k slide as summer hits full speed and TOT keeps grinding players into the proverbial dust as they wait for SoO. 5.3 isn't tidying anyone over anymore.

[dope_danny]

I think it will be the biggest drop of the year, we have summer which right off the bat is a big loss to numbers as people are out and active irl more, theres a lot of new big name games out and quite a few new ftp offerings people are going to try, that and unless you are a progression raider still in tot 5.3 hasnt really had much to keep people engaged with the game. So i expect maybe 300-400k ish, the usual pre blizzcon summer losses just compounded by the time of competition releases and such.

[Immitis]

50 million, just because the rage would be insane

[Gilian]

I'm thinking more towards 1 mil. Drop that is.

[Uselessrouge]

350-750k down ^^

[Evil Inside]

I am a pessimistic person, and in these types of threads I usually type about how wow is going to lose subs, but I think that wow is going to gain some threads this next quarter. Mainly because lots of students from college, high school, and even lower levels are out for the summer. Once school starts back in the fall there will be a drastic decrease in subs.

Does it matter?

[traen]

You'll see a stable decline of about 1M every year.
Then it will stabilize at 1M active subscribers pretty much forever.

Like Ultima Online got stable 100k subscribers for the last 10 years(out of 15).

1M active subscribers is enough to fill 50 servers to full. So it's more than enough to keep the game going.
No reason to worry.

[jvbastel]

probably a slight decline, maybe a few 100K at most.

[Gilian]

7.7m. the following quarter will be 7.5m because of 5.4 The quarter after that will be 8m because of next xpac hype, and the quarter where the xpac launches will be around 9m

I think much lower. We also have next gen console coming and a lot of great games along with them.
The hype around new expansions for WoW is really not that high anymore I think.

[Deleted]

I think much lower. We also have next gen console coming and a lot of great games along with them.
The hype around new expansions for WoW is really not that high anymore I think.

how does that have to do anything with wow? people can play more than 1 game at a time you know?
i guess 7.5-10m but in all honesty i really don´t care as long as the server i play on is still filled with people

[Noorri]

I said 1.5 million loss in the last thread about this, and I stand by that.

[Deleted]

If SoO comes out during that time, players will return. People leave when there's lack of content, come back when there's new content. It's always been a shift of numbers when new content is being introduced, and this is a patch that everyone is waiting for.

Somehow I doubt SoO will be in here in the next 4 days.