wow subs at 7.7m

[Peso]

WoW 71 pages what did I miss?

[Alewen]

Your post can be summed as:

"I dont believe you...dont you agree?"

And your post can be summed as:

"I have nothing to contribute to the thread, so I am going to troll"

Sorry but the gaming world isn't all apples and sunshine. It is fact that other game developers have shut down for far less.

[Lord Blackmore]

Actually I don't recall people asking for pandas. Myself, I expected pandaren to be featured in the expansion as NPC's. I only expected a new class, the monk.

Blizzard isn't in the business of doing what everybody wants, because, frankly, most people don't have any idea what they want or how reasonable or unreasonable what they want is.

People seem to think that Blizzard should do whatever the hell players suggest.

[wych]

And your post can be summed as:

"I have nothing to contribute to the thread, so I am going to troll"

Sorry but the gaming world isn't all apples and sunshine. It is fact that other game developers have shut down for far less.

Please read my post above, you seem unable or unwilling to understand what the debt is and what it means.

[Alewen]

Because Blizzard is part of something much, much larger (Activision) and it is not their debt alone.

Most of those MMOs that shut down were NOT making profits, the reason they shut down was because they did not make back their production costs and were not worth keeping open.

I am not going to assume the market value of Activision or Blizzard, but given that they're market leaders I imagine it is very, very big.

I am talking past the realm of MMOs here, as Blizzard is not just an MMO company, lots (in fact I imagine most) companies operate on debt, at least initially.

Blizzard won't sit there worrying about how they're going to stump up $1.4bn, they'll sit on it and they'll pay the bank, or whoever it is owed to, small figures constantly or in fact leave it at $1.4bn and pay the interests.

If they had problems, started making massive losses every quarter in terms of income, then it would be an issue.

However a company that is turning over a lot of money is not worried by this because should worst come to worst they can easily sell off shares, or the company as it's entirety to pay the debt.

It is not the same as me walking down to a bank and borrowing £500k off the bank and filing bankrupt because I cannot pay it.

It literally makes no sense in any sense of the word (sense) to shut down WoW, it is bringing in 10s of millions of dollars a month, it would either get bailed out by Activision (99.99999% sure) or get sold off where the sale fee would be used to cover debts.

Well I am just saying you couple their recent debt and how fast they are losing subscriptions. Pretty soon WoW wont be making them a profit if they keep losing subscription numbers. Okay lets say for arguments sake they don't shut down. Given the current losses and I can almost guarantee an expansion now wont help, the subscription losses would be something like this:

Q3 2013 - 6 million
Q4 2013 - 5 million
Q1 2014 - 4 million
Q2 2014 - 3 million
Q3 2014 - 2 million
Q4 2014 - 1 million

If I was running a company and I knew I was going down 600k to 1 million plus subscribers each quarter, and nothing I am doing is stopping it, then I'd cut my losses at the halfway point. WoW is basically going to be on life support at this rate, if they aren't already. In my example with the scenarios, I gave first a positive scenario if they wanted to turn the game around. And 3 worse case scenarios if they decide to continue forward and ignore the problems. That is all I am saying. And having the debt over their heads doesn't help matters.

[Lord Blackmore]

because Blizzard has a holier than God attitude. They need a reality check so they will quit making shit just because they think people will buy it cause the Blizzard name is on it and start making the great game WoW used to be back in TBC/Wrath.

If Blizzard is so bad at determining what players want, then why there still almost 8 million subscribers?

The reality is that most players couldn't find their rear end with both hands when it comes to what they want.

[wych]

Well I am just saying you couple their recent debt and how fast they are losing subscriptions. Pretty soon WoW wont be making them a profit if they keep losing subscription numbers. Okay lets say for arguments sake they don't shut down. Given the current losses and I can almost guarantee an expansion now wont help, the subscription losses would be something like this:

Q3 2013 - 6 million
Q4 2013 - 5 million
Q1 2014 - 4 million
Q2 2014 - 3 million
Q3 2014 - 2 million
Q4 2014 - 1 million

If I was running a company and I knew I was going down 600k to 1 million plus subscribers each quarter, and nothing I am doing is stopping it, then I'd cut my losses at the halfway point. WoW is basically going to be on life support at this rate, if they aren't already. In my example with the scenarios, I gave first a positive scenario if they wanted to turn the game around. And 3 worse case scenarios if they decide to continue forward and ignore the problems. That is all I am saying. And having the debt over their heads doesn't help matters.

Your entire premise is based on assumptions which are incorrect.

-WoW is not falling at 1 million per quarter
-Every expansion so far has spiked subscriber numbers
-Assuming a constant gradient is absolutely ridiculous

It seems like you want it to happen more than anything, WoW is making ridiculous profits even with 7.7m subscribers, and would still make massive profits down to 1 million subscribers.

WoW has no chance of shutting down in the foreseeable future, as shown by Blizz "thinking of the expansion after next and the one after that".

[Alewen]

Blizzard isn't in the business of doing what everybody wants, because, frankly, most people don't have any idea what they want or how reasonable or unreasonable what they want is.

People seem to think that Blizzard should do whatever the hell players suggest.

Actually you'd be surprised what players want. It's the attitude that the customer doesn't know what they want and must be dictated what they want, that is hurting them, not helping them. Final Fantasy XIV was released too soon and was incomplete. They weren't making a good profit. So for a short time they made it free to play for the sole purpose of getting feedback from their customers. Find out what they liked. What they disliked. What they'd like to see. What they don't want to see. This information and working close with the customers was the right move. Because now, Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn will be going live next month after they shut down the 1.0 game to develop the game with continued feedback with their player base.

5 days in the beta, no RP, and I only reached level 14 as a conjurer in that game. That tells me the game is about the journey, and not zipping to end game for loot. There's tons to do in the game and an outstanding story and system. If Square-Enix can admit their faults and work with their players to rebuild the game, then why doesn't Blizzard take a stance of working with their players instead of dictating to them?

Players know what they find fun. Many know what they find fun and entertaining. And to say players don't know what they want is just pure arrogance in my opinion.

[thunderdragon2]

im just curious of how many more subs blizz will bleed from vertual reams as quite a few people ive talked to dont like it yet theres a lot of suport, my problem is since they will merge all the realms in 1 battlegroupin to 1 giant server how will the deal wiht the different realm types as i doubt theyd mix pvp and pve realms together.

[Lord Blackmore]

Well I am just saying you couple their recent debt and how fast they are losing subscriptions. Pretty soon WoW wont be making them a profit if they keep losing subscription numbers. Okay lets say for arguments sake they don't shut down. Given the current losses and I can almost guarantee an expansion now wont help, the subscription losses would be something like this

It won't be "pretty soon". Wow will survive through at least one more expansion and has quite a few years before it's no longer profitable.

[Alewen]

Your entire premise is based on assumptions which are incorrect.

-WoW is not falling at 1 million per quarter
-Every expansion so far has spiked subscriber numbers
-Assuming a constant gradient is absolutely ridiculous

It seems like you want it to happen more than anything, WoW is making ridiculous profits even with 7.7m subscribers, and would still make massive profits down to 1 million subscribers.

WoW has no chance of shutting down in the foreseeable future, as shown by Blizz "thinking of the expansion after next and the one after that".

Not quite true on the subscriber numbers spiking. Cataclysm when it launched, did not spike subscriptions. If anything it started the downward spiral. Yes mists of pandaria had a small spike. But look at the result. It's downward spiral is steeper than Cataclysm:

[serenka]

not as much as i thought actually, but before next expac releases i think it will be around 7m, and then jump up to 7.8 at launch of next expac. but what i really think is going to hapen, in 2years time wow will settle on around 5m subs, which i think is best for WoW, a smaller player base is better imo.

[Twotonsteak]

inb4 ErHMERHGAWERD WOW IS DYING GUIZ
What was it at before? Not like it matters much anyway

WoW peaked around 11 million, as I recall. With the exception of when MoP was released it's been on a gradual slide down for almost two years now.

[Alewen]

not as much as i thought actually, but before next expac releases i think it will be around 7m, and then jump up to 7.8 at launch of next expac. but what i really think is going to hapen, in 2years time wow will settle on around 5m subs, which i think is best for WoW, a smaller player base is better imo.

How do you figure they will hold at 7m? From the chart above they been losing between 600k to 1m every quarter, except on the tail end of catclysm which I think was around the time of firelands and hour of twilight before the downward spiral. And the current numbers don't show any sign of slowing down.

- - - Updated - - -

WoW peaked around 11 million, as I recall. With the exception of when MoP was released it's been on a gradual slide down for almost two years now.

actually it was 12 million it peaked at.

[serenka]

How do you figure they will hold at 7m? From the chart above they been losing between 600k to 1m every quarter, except on the tail end of catclysm which I think was around the time of firelands and hour of twilight before the downward spiral. And the current numbers don't show any sign of slowing down.

i dont think it will hold onto 7m, i think its going to drop to around 5m in the next expansion and hover around there for a few years.

[Lord Blackmore]

It's the attitude that the customer doesn't know what they want and must be dictated what they want, that is hurting them, not helping them.

If players knew what they wanted, they wouldn't ask for a return to TBC or blizzard have legacy servers or any of the rest of the loop ideas people talk about here and elsewhere. The reality is that most players think they know what they want but have absolutely no clue about whether it's reasonable or whether it would be a good business decisions. And then when Blizzard doesn't implement any of those loopy ideas, they get accused of not listening to players.

And as far as I can tell, they DO listen to players. LFR and LFD were responses to problems that players were having. But since that gave the most vocal players sore rear ends, all we hear is how bad these things are.

And you want to talk about arrogance? How about the arrogance of people who think they know how to run a gaming company because they play games.

This thread is a perfect example. It's the same thread we've had every quarter. It's the thread where people claim whatever their pet peeves are, are responsible for the subscriber loss.

Players really have no idea what they want.

[Gamez]

hey at least vivendi is out of the picture now, Blizz's leash is getting longer (if not unleashed now)

[Lord Blackmore]

And your post can be summed as:

"I have nothing to contribute to the thread, so I am going to troll"

Sorry but the gaming world isn't all apples and sunshine. It is fact that other game developers have shut down for far less.

Pro Tip: There is one person in this thread worth listening to. And that person isn't you.

[serenka]

hey at least vivendi is out of the picture now, Blizz's leash is getting longer (if not unleashed now)

still, there is really nothing blizzard can do to stop sub losses, the problem isn't solely with game design, most WoW players have been playing for 5+ years, started when they were teenagers, now in their 20s don't have the time to invest in playing an mmo, or just want something new, only so long you can play the same game for. best blizzard can really hope for at this time is for subs to settle around 5million and have more of a dedicated and loyal fanbase instead of trying to market the game towards every kind of player.

[Gamez]

Players really have no idea what they want.

I know what I want, a friggin MECH raid, with Mechs and Gatling guns, Rocket launchers, Grenades and Lasers.

Oh and when i talk about a mech raid i mean Robots of all kinds, like transformers etc not a shitty "iron dorf raid" like Ulduar was

(oh snap inc NO ULDUAR WAS BEST RAID EVAR)