Originally Posted by
willowe
My 2 Cents. I've been meaning to write something up about this (see site below) but have gotten side tracked actually PLAYING WoW.
Simply put, the MMO Market is Over Saturated. Let's break this down a bit to see what i mean. Keep in mind, this MMO list is by no means 'compete,' this is just a list of the 'bigger' MMOs of recent note.
World of Warcraft November 23, 2004
The Matrix Online March 22, 2005
Guild Wars April 26, 2005
MapleStory May 11, 2005
Club Penguin October 24, 2005
Fly For Fun December 25, 2005
Blood Wars January 8, 2006
Dungeons and Dragons Online February 28, 2006
World of Warcraft: The Burning Crusade January 16, 2007
Vanguard: Saga of Heroes January 30, 2007
Lord Of The Rings Online April 24, 2007
Tabula Rasa November 2, 2007
Fiesta Online November 7, 2007
Age of Conan: Unchained May 20, 2008
Wizard101 September 2, 2008
Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning September 18, 2008
World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King November 13, 2008
Runes of Magic March 19, 2009
Hello Kitty Online July 1, 2009
Champions Online September 1, 2009
Aion: The Tower of Eternity September 22, 2009
Fallen Earth Online September 22, 2009
Spiral Knights November 12, 2009
League of Legends October 27, 2009
Star Trek Online February 2, 2010
Heroes of Newerth May 12, 2010
All Points Bulletin June 29, 2010
Final Fantasy XIV September 22, 2010
Vindictus October 13, 2010
World of Warcraft: Cataclysm December 7, 2010
DC Universe Online January 11, 2011
Battlestar Glaacitca Online February 8, 2011
Rift March 1, 2011
World of Tanks April 12, 2011
Realm of the Mad God June 20, 2011
Minecraft November 18, 2011
Star Wars: The Old Republic December 20, 2011
The Exiled Realm of Arborea May 1, 2012
Blade & Soul June 30, 2012
The Secret World July 3, 2012
Phantasy Star Online II July 4, 2012
Guild Wars 2 August 28, 2012
World of Warcraft: Mists of Pandaria September 25, 2012
Planetside 2 November 20, 2012
HAWKEN December 12, 2012
Path of Exile January 23, 2013
Wizardry Online January 30, 2013
Warframe March 25, 2013
Defiance April 2, 2013
Darkfall: Unholy Wars April 16, 2013
Scarlet Blade Online April 20th, 2013
Marvel Heroes June 4, 2013
Neverwinter June 20, 2013
Cube World July 2, 2013
Firefall July 9, 2013
DOTA II July 9, 2013
Age of Wushu July 18, 2013
*Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn August 27, 2013
*SMITE Quarter 3, 2013
*MechWarrior Online September 17, 2013
Now remember this isn't a complete list. It's just a list of the 'bigger' named MMOs. What's interesting?
Pre-BC MMOs Launched: 7
This was in 26 months, or 1 MMO every 3.7 months
Pre-Wrath MMOs Launched: 7
This was in 23 months, or 1 MMO every 3.3 months
Pre-Cata MMOs Launched: 12
This was in 25 months, or 1 MMO every 2.1 months.
Pre-Mists MMOs Launched: 12
This was in 22 months, or 1 MMO every 1.8 months.
Post-Mists MMOs Launched: 17+
This has been in (currently) 10 months (to the end of Aug), or 1 MMO every 0.6 months.
When the game was growing, there was less than 10 MMOs launched during those X-pacs. Every X-pac there has been more and more MMOs launched during it, and therefore, more and more people going off to play it. Yes, not everyone will go and play Scarlet Blade Online, but if every MMO took say 100k from WoW in MoP ALONE that's 1.7 Million and counting. That's a low estimate, as obviously more players play FFXIV and GW2 and SWtOR and Rift.
WoW's decline is simply because there's too much out there. In earlier years, it has to compete with DDO or LOTRO. That's a pretty short list.