Yup played AV all morning and NEWSFLASH
The team that back capped won every single time. Mostly Alliance wins; but the times horde back capped they won. As it basically has been since reinforcements were introduced. Learn2AV.
My opinion on horde's improved success (which I have also experienced) is because now that horde knows about these changes the competent horde players all took AV off the blacklist to try out the changed AV. Now we have players willing to play defense as a team and work together towards objectives instead of just rushing the alliance in full zerg like before.
The changes to the wall and NPC health were simply enough incentive to bring horde players back they weren't game breaking balance changes though.
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The buff to the NPCs certainly make them more formidable to tank. Before the changes, it was as if two towers down was enough to pull Drek. Now, that's a tank killer and you are better off waiting for four. So far, my personal experience from an ally perspective is that it's been a zerg, with Ally winning if they move enough straight to Frostwolf and losing if horde put up more than a token defense. I've not seen the concerted horde big defenses I used to sometimes see with the AV pre-form enabler mod. But if ally doesn't take FW fast - due to neglect and/or a token defense - horde pip them to the post.