'Twas a cutlass swipe or an ounce of lead
Or a yawing hole in a battered head
And the scuppers clogged with rotting red
And there they lay I damn me eyes
All lookouts clapped on Paradise
All souls bound just contrarywise, yo ho ho and a bottle of rum!
But it sure looks that way to Russians.
Which is a straw-man created by West themselves. Fear sells, and old stereotypes are easy to revive.It's uneasiness at a hardcore authoritarian Russia where power is consolidated into a single individual and dissent is snuffed out.
We just feel that we finally got somewhat capable (though nowhere perfect) leader, and that creates his domestic popularity.
Opposition remains to be pretty marginal; we love freedom, we value constructive dissent, but those are not things we would "defend at any cost" - our "core values" are different. And "Strong Russia" comes quite high on most lists of priorities here - people in opposition just didn't believe that Putin is the one who might make it true.
So you fear that he might be replaced by someone more dangerous... and because of that are trying to alienate Russia by using double standards and acting tough, ignoring that Russia might have legitimate interests somewhere too? How is that going to help? It just makes someone even more hardcore coming next more likely.Bad things tend to happen under that sort of rule, if not with the first authoritarian, then with his or her successors.
Well, tough luck, this "perfect world" is not going to happen. You got to deal with real Russia, not some imaginary Russia you might have wanted. We like to be powerful, we like to be sure our interests can be protected, and we'll make steps to keep it that way.We could probably handle that in a world where Russia didn't have nuclear weapons and production of much of the world's oil and gas and eyes on many of the other countries in the region.
I have noticed, trough personal experience, that some people from ex soviet states are usually very personal about Russia. And that is reflected in their goverments at times, so far as to affect national political and social choices.
It's obvious that the damage done hasn't been forgotten yet, and that is understandable.
Lets take the Baltic nations. Little gems up north, closer to Scandinavia than anything else, brutally ravaged by mother Russia.
I believe in two of three generation this will all be gone though.
USA's presidential elections are an outright publicity stunt/joke.
The points you've quoted were the ones that I consider very valid points too.
Here's western governments arguing about Russia's occupation of Crimea, while some years back the same governments overthrown a government by act of war and initiated elections while the country was still occupied by them.
Crimea couldn't vote any different due to Russia's Military..... If that's true, who can tell that it isn't true in the case of Iraq either?
The economic impact of sanctions I've already pointed out yesterday in the other thread. There's no way the corporations in our western countries will accept deeply cutting sanctions. They'll tell our governments that this will lead to higher unemployment. And then you see how the sanctions become as soft as it gets.
"The pen is mightier than the sword.. and considerably easier to write with."
A few things quickly, as I need to go out the door.
(1) We have nothing to fear from a "strong Russia". Lets keep in mind what your "strong" is and our "strong" is, is two very different things. It's like the ill-made comparison of Economic growth. The US grows at 3.5% GDP annually on a total GDP of $16 trillion, that's amazing, because it's such a high starting position. It compares very favorably to a developing country of say, $1 trillion GDP growing at a rate of 9%. That's also impressive growth, but it's starting from a much lower position.
Even a "strong" Russia has many decades of catching up to do in nearly every major area. If you mean relatively strong, compared to what Russia was, again, we have nothing to fear for the same reason.
(2) Putin has hollowed out Russia. He isn't making you strong. Far from it, he is operating from a position of weakness and Russia is weakening. Don't mistake what you're seeing now as anything other than a kind of sugar-high... I wouldn't even call it steroids. You feel strong because you're doing something that is momentarily invigorating. It's not true strength... it's not even strength. It's an illusion.
(3) The power differential between the US/EU and Russia is hilariously disproportionately tilted towards us, and a dozen "Crimeas" will never change the fundamentals. If push came to shove, it would become abundantly clear in short order why the US / EU are the two most powerful countries / blocs and why Russia is where it is, a declined shell without a strong fundamental to it's name.
I mentioned it in the first few pages of the thread... but no one not-Russian can name 3 things that isn't vodka that's made in Russia in their homes. The US, South Korea, Japan, China, the EU... very easily named. Russia though? Not a single thing. We can be talking software, like websites, Android or Windows. We can be talking hardware, like a television or a chair. We can be talking things interacted with through another layer, like GPS (lol GLONASS).
When people call Russia a Gas Station, it's not a slander because Gas is all Russia dispenses to the world, and it just became second fiddle to the US in that regard as well. That does not make for a strong country.
Make no mistake. I want a weak Russia. A weak Russia is very much in the US's interests and people like you do more to aid that goal, because you and your ilk, for decades, have long mistaken the leader of whatever Russia-exists that decade putting on some kind of grand show, as actual strength.
In this Crisis, the West is into methodically, carefully "win it" because we understand Russia better than you understand yourselves. We know your strengths. We know your weaknesses. Giving Vladmir Putin a sensationalist military response, some show of force, would be giving him, and you, exactly what you want.
But that's not our weakness, because the one thing Russia wants more than anything is respect, and that's the one thing it is being systematically removed of. You will not hear Western leaders speak of "Russia as a partner" for many, many years. The hilarious part is that Vladmir Putin used that phrase ("our Western partners") in his speech today, as if he is trying to hold onto the last vestiges of him and you in some way being a peer.
It's both sad and funny.
Russia will continue doing it's obnoxious grand show. I'm sure we'll see some silly Naval or aviation shenanigans before too long, in an effort to provoke us into Responding how he'd like. Maybe Putin will have Russia's strategic bombers do another silly tour of the Alaskan permiter so our F-22s can escort them, just like the last time. Meanwhile Russia won't be doing any actual strength building, just like the Soviet Union, which got on for decades despite being economically and institutionally outclassed by the West, which built actual strength. And whose fault is that? Yours. Always the Russian people, who let their leaders get away with the systemic raping and pillaging of their country's strengths and resources (human, natural and otherwise), because they always fall for the oldest trick in the Russian leader's arsenal: the delusion that a grand show towards external enemies counts as external strengths.
It didn't work in 50 years of the cold war. And it isn't going to work for the Russian Federation, in 2014, vastly weaker than even the USSR was in 1984. But please, carry on. Play the part we know you people were born to play: that of our most reliable accomplice in making sure Russia is not a true danger to the world, even though it tries to pretend to be one whenever it gets in a mood.
Erm... Dont forget that nevermind how peaceful and just our media depicted the "rebels" in western Ukraine, they pretty much bullied an officially elected government down through violence, and then proceeded to create a couple of extremely controversial laws that could easily be seen as "vengeful" towards Ukrainian of Russian descent.
I wouldn't wait a second to depart from such government, nevermind if i was Russian or not.
Oh and also consider the fact that these guys have "decided" to get closer to the EU, without following a plan. The EU isn't in its best shape.
The economy of Ukraine isn't looking good at all.
I doubt it. In order to be gone the root of their grudge would have to be gone as well. As long as it's there nothing much will change. At best grudges will take a backseat until some behaviour remembering them of how things were or began are resurfacing again. I know this through personal experience as well.
WoW: Crowcloak (Druid) & Neesheya (Paladin) @ Sylvanas EU (/ˈkaZHo͞oəl/) | GW2: Siqqa (Asura Engineer) @ Piken Square EU
If builders built houses the way programmers built programs,the first woodpecker to come along would destroy civilization. - Weinberg's 2nd law
He seeks them here, he seeks them there, he seeks those lupins everywhere!
In the current economic "unbalance" the EU finds itself in, sanctions to Russia would be nothing short of catastrophic.
If they eventually do agree on sanctions (at the end of the day the US wants them) we in the eu should better stack on logs for the winter and invest in farmland.
Can I express a small request?
Most people in this forums aren't masters in the Cyrillic language.... It would be a bit convenient, if you guys could post links to site translations..
I do that myself, when I have to link German articles from German news sources. I further also provide the credibility level of the source itself..
Just a suggestion/request..
"The pen is mightier than the sword.. and considerably easier to write with."
Just look at the owner of this...Ex-oligarh, ex-criminal...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Gusinsky
... 83.1% of voters attended. West lost, BIG TIME.
Funny thing is, now that this has been done democratically, West is all loud how this is not right and is trying to find excuses. After the Cold War ended they used force to express "democracy" against USSR and that was the right democratic way in their opinion ...
Democracy in West means guns, threats, killing civilians, ... etc. We all know it now, Germany lost two wars with guns, now they're using another tactic.
Usually sanctions are part of a strategy and in the EU's case sanctions are a sign for lack of strategy. Sanctions have a goal in mind, the EU doesn't even have any particular goal in mind now. It's a punitive actions whose bills are to be footed by Joe Normal the taxpayer.
WoW: Crowcloak (Druid) & Neesheya (Paladin) @ Sylvanas EU (/ˈkaZHo͞oəl/) | GW2: Siqqa (Asura Engineer) @ Piken Square EU
If builders built houses the way programmers built programs,the first woodpecker to come along would destroy civilization. - Weinberg's 2nd law
He seeks them here, he seeks them there, he seeks those lupins everywhere!