Q2/2014 Sub prediction and discussion thread (5th August, 2014)

[Iseeyou]

Well with 1 free week of game time before each Q ends, Blizzard is clearly manipulating sub number.

Still a 300k loss. 400++ without the free week.

[rda]

Well with 1 free week of game time before each Q ends, Blizzard is clearly manipulating sub number.

I'd say more, they probably give free weeks because they are looking at numbers and these numbers aren't great. Same with "+100% valor" buffs, etc.

[Kelimbror]

Well with 1 free week of game time before each Q ends, Blizzard is clearly manipulating sub number.

Still a 300k loss. 400++ without the free week.

Not really. The free week doesn't count as an active subscriber. If people decide to keep subscribing because of it, that's not manipulation of numbers so much as clever marketing. Obviously they are doing it to get people to resub, but not to hit some magical number plateau as opposed to just making a quick buck.

[Deleted]

None of that is true.

There are tons of negative threads about Blizzard, many of which I participate in. The only reason your threads were an issue is because you were posting the incorrect idea that the 7-day trials themselves counted as subs (despite an official statement released by Blizzard that they do not) and refused to listen to anyone who corrected you.

Negative topics are not strictly prohibited. We only ask that people remain constructive in their negative opinions and that they avoid using their opinion to bash Blizzard or posters.

I personally dont beleive that this site closes negative Blizzard threads, However, i 100% know that the main Wow forums do.

I was permabanned a couple of years ago for a 2 line post in a thread about low-pop realms, which i said something along the lines of "I cant believe people think Blizzard will ever do anything about this issue, these threads have been around for years and they havent done anything about it, they never have and they never will."

Thats it... permaban.

[Violetti]

The heirlooms, my friend, that is why we farm so much. An item going from lvl 90 to lvl 100 and can be used for intro-levelling.

once everyone is lvl100 there will be ways to level or boost 90-100 ways faster then questing.

[Lochton]

Shame, still no Q2/2014 call date. Still thinking it of last week of July / first week of august.

[rda]

Shame, still no Q2/2014 call date. Still thinking it of last week of July / first week of august.

August 5, 1:30 PM PT, no?

(For the record: 400k or more.)

[Hunter Extraordinaire]

Probably close to a million loss :P

[Durandro]

I actually don't care. Last few months of an expansion is the least important time, when it comes to subscriber figures.

Now, Quarter 3/4 (depending when WoD launches) will be more interesting - seeing how many people returned.

[Kuja]

Hard to guess before I see Wildstar and ESO numbers. Everyone keeps talking about wow in game.

[BenBos]

Hard to guess before I see Wildstar and ESO numbers. Everyone keeps talking about wow in game.

This has always been the case. In fact I wrote about it 6-7 years back.

"Every copy sold of Warhammer is free publicity to play WoW (again)."

I was right at the time (War folded in 2013) and the slogan is still valid.

On a SHORT term these games steal "some" attention and since they are introduced in a well limited market, they have a short term influence. But in the LONG run - say 6 months - these games even promote the playing of WoW, since WoW is the reference...

I noticed this trend for the first time in the first BIG launch with LotrO.

LOTRO was a huge success at launch, it was published in May 2007 ... but the long term influence was that WoW made an unexpected growth in the winter of 2007-08 WITHOUT any expansion even in alpha or beta in sight.

I saw the same mechanics at work with AoC and with War: War was bombed by the launch of WotLk 3 months later btw as its famous RvR was blown by Wintergrasp fights.

The only problem between 2010 and 2013 were the f2p conversions of ALL the other AAA fantasy titles which influenced negatively the new recruitment of WoW players. It is very difficult to recruit new blood with others offering free to play ...

So my guess is that the short term influence of both Elder Scrolls and wildstar will show up negatively for WoW, but in the LONG run, subscriptions will get a huge boost with the next expansion launched in Nov/Dec.

I think subs could rise above 9 million again in early 2015, but it ALL depends on the China players really. They are used to play for free now and WoW still costs per hours played as an extra compared to their garbish native games.

The goal is to stay well above the 7 million mark during summer time. 8.5 million at the launch of WoD is a goal.

Any way, HS is a huge hit and will give Blizzard an extra boost in revenue, so subscriptions will have less impact on the quarterly figures.

[Vash The Stampede]

Good lord, the very first reply and this mindless dribble is already beginning...

Can we NEVER just have a legitimate discussion without naming and patronizing people?

OT: I voted 400k+ subs lost. I feel the content drought will mostly be felt this upcoming quarter report.

Good lord, the very first reply to the first reply and this mindless dribble is already beginning...

Can we agree that WoW has fans that would sell their soul to Blizzard? Who else buys mounts and pets in the game store?

[Lochton]

August 5, 1:30 PM PT, no?

(For the record: 400k or more.)

True, true. Thank you. My post was done from the ipad, so didn't have patience to surf about much. Don't like using the pad much for that. Sorry about that.

Activision Blizzard Releases Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results (5th August, 2014)
1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time)

Enjoy your week!

[Velerios]

I cancelled in Q2; normally i would play 1-2 months again, but after Capitolgate i have no intention to resub; and I really hope that blizzard losing more than 400k+. There is only one thing that makes me eventually resub for a month; and that is the 10th aniversary-pet; to get Hogger. But WoD seems skipable for me, and if wow is still worth to play in the expansion after the next, then i might resub again. But until then i really hope that they're losing so many players that they need to overthink what they are doing.

[Razorice]

2M lost. No, wait- 3M lost.

[Count Zero]

2M lost. No, wait- 3M lost.

Not sure if srs ...

[valcrist]

I bet Wildstar Took a huge chunk out surprisingly Elder scrolls did little to no dmg to the subs but I bet Wildstar hurt them, I would guess easily 1 million down, but the game isn't very good so I would suspect if WOD turns out good they will gain most back. Apart of me wishes the game would lose more so they rethink there strat but the other part of me says they are making a ton of money to fun other games so I honestly would rather see a new game / replacement for wow and then let wow go F2p and slowly get retired then just watching the game crumble cause people hate it for some reason.

[Deleted]

I bet Wildstar Took a huge chunk out surprisingly Elder scrolls did little to no dmg to the subs but I bet Wildstar hurt them,

I dont agree with this assumption that every other MMO out there is largely populated by Wow players.

Speaking from personal experience, i play GW2 and out of the 300-400 players ive met ingame, spoken to on TS etc. i reckon only around 20 of them have played Wow. It constantly amazes me that so few of the GW2 players have played Wow. I can only logically assume that the GW2 community is largely made up of players relatively new to MMOs and those who played GW1 first.

It would be interesting to see if this observation also applies to Wildstar and TESO.

[Callace]

Hello hello, my follow madmen and forum dwellers alike!

Sun crosses the sky, clouds move and the days pass on the calender. It has once more become close to that day, the day where we will hear the quarterly report from Activision-Blizzard. Among that will of course be our little home within World of Warcraft.

Reports come as a business supplies it, the investment team has a release for the 5th August, 2014

This is not a discussion about 'padding' of numbers, an offer is still an offer. If you find them imprecise just because others bought a version on sale, then it is still a paying subscriber. It is a common thing for many companies, and this it isn't the discussion topic.

This is all about the discussion for how you predict the quarterly results to be! 100k gain/loss, 200?, 300? More? Less? It can all come to a discussion here.


Currently curve for subscriptions over the last quarterly results is of course available >here<


Their investment teams keep previous results on digital files and is available to the ones that might be interested. Q1/2014 summary sheet.

Activision Blizzard Releases Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results (5th August, 2014)
1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time)


Have a good summer! And be sure to get out!

Surprising that a moderator is posting this as it is usually perceived as "negative". Maybe the goal was to beat others to the punch?

OT: In the neighborhood of a million lost. Hopefully more. We get what we pay for, and they reap what they sow.

[Lothrik]

I dont agree with this assumption that every other MMO out there is largely populated by Wow players.

Speaking from personal experience, i play GW2 and out of the 300-400 players ive met ingame, spoken to on TS etc. i reckon only around 20 of them have played Wow. It constantly amazes me that so few of the GW2 players have played Wow. I can only logically assume that the GW2 community is largely made up of players relatively new to MMOs and those who played GW1 first.

It would be interesting to see if this observation also applies to Wildstar and TESO.

90%+ of the people I met playing WildStar had played other MMOs in the past.

TBH I don't know what to expect from Blizzard's Q2 2014 report.

Siege of Orgrimmar lasting as long as it has is doing an amazing job eliminating any desire I have to continue playing WoW, but after trying WildStar, FFXIV and TERA (over the past 3~ months) I'm kind of convinced every company making MMOs right now is incompetent and it's not just Blizzard.