The 1st quarter post WOD, what will the subs be at?

[Hubbl3]

4M-5M or so.

[Pann]

Your decline is not related to in game WoW, it is related to the declining MMO industry that turned free to play as a last resort to gather players and ditto revenue.

Have you considered that the declining MMO market, although it is the sub based side rather than the market as a whole that is in decline, is declining due to WOW shrinking and not the other way around?

(Don't worry I know you haven't actually thought about this and will completely ignore it)

[BenBos]

Have you considered that the declining MMO market, although it is the sub based side rather than the market as a whole that is in decline, is declining due to WOW shrinking and not the other way around?

(Don't worry I know you haven't actually thought about this and will completely ignore it)

The answer is found in the overall figures of the study.

Rift had around 10% of WoW subscription numbers at launch: 1 million subs.

These days it generates only 3% of WoW...

The same for all these others (with one exception as L1 was launched before WoW).

SWTOR boosted 1.7 to 2 million subs at launch, while it is newer it still didn't beat that % by 2013 ...

So the overall industry declined as WoW figures were in most cases better than individual tracked MMO's compared to their launching figures.

It is an obvious trend in the industry and actually WoW DID hold on to subscriptions while the others could not.

Now ... this study showed the TOP 10 ... of MMO's having paid services. It doesn't include the massive numbers of complete duds that run into the dozens of smaller ones OR the complete dead ones without even a server running ...

Hell even GW2 shows a serious decline vs its older incarnation of GW1 in sales figures.

A mediocre Diablo3 just passed its 20 million sales in exactly 2 years. GW2 is standing there with 3+ million as a lost sheep ... Just to show how popular MMO play is these days ... compared to other genres ...

You are all so OBSESSED with WoW subscriptions, while these subscriptions have to be placed in a serious decline of overall MMORPG popularity and them going free to play... without subscriptions....

Almost ALL new AAA MMO's published between 2007 and 2010 had 1 million player(subs) numbers at launch... these days new MMO's have a fraction of that number...

Instead of yelling they whisper and hide numbers even...in newly launched MMO's.

--------

What replaced the MMO's former bigger market share ?

iPads play, facebook casual games, other forms of on line entertainment like Dota, D3, farmville copies.

They all took a huge chunk of the MMO market. Faster and more casual games.

And it all happened since 2010 ...

WoW gamers are too focused on in game issues to explain long term subscriptions.

-------

That's why I view WoW subscriptions differently and within a global MMO industry. That's also the reason why WoD will have a massive return to 8.5-9.5 Million in its first 2 months after launch.

There simply is no longer a valid long term alternative if you want to play a long term MMORPG.

The rest has been burning bridges already by going free to play. Once you go free to play ... you never can go back.

The 2011-2013 period has been a shake out in the subscription based industry. The last man standing takes it all.

And to those thinking that putting a "refund" link in their signature will "help" making WoD fail in a WoW forum are really going to be taken by surprise .

[Deadite]

Half of these movies are older than 10 years. I stated: WOW made more than the 10 biggest blockbusters of the last 10 years (decade).

Learn to read. And I used the movie industry over the same period as WOW existed.

The top 19 films all made 1 billion+ thus far. Fill your boots with any 10 you want. That is just box office earnings mind you. You have to add in dvd/bluray sales,merchandise and blah blah blah. You are dead wrong is what you stated. How wrong you are was not even my point.

You always seem to compare wow to everything. Other mmos,other games ,films and even books. When you compare a subscription service to a non subscription service and say 'Look how much more it has made lol!' you are stating the obvious. Hell the film industry made over 10 billion just in ticket sales last year at the box office. Grand Theft Auto V made more in three days than wow makes in year. I really don't even know what your point is.

[Deleted]

I find this graph fabulous.

Fabulous?. How many "Business For Dummies" books have you read?.

A game that has lost 5.200.000 subscribers in the past three and a half years is fabulous?.

My bad ...

[BenBos]

Fabulous?. How many "Business For Dummies" books have you read?.

A game that has lost 5.200.000 subscribers in the past three and a half years is fabulous?.

My bad ...

And ALL the rest went free to play during this time ... except niche EVE.

Fabulous achievement. As WoW still has OVER 1 billion dollars yearly revenue and the others stand nowhere to this amount.

Zero official subs ... ... and a fraction of WoW players...

Fabulous achievement during this time that the complete subscription based MMO's went down.

THAT is the true story.

[Tharkkun]

And ALL the rest went free to play during this time ... except niche EVE.

Fabulous achievement. As WoW still has OVER 1 billion dollars yearly revenue and the others stand nowhere to this amount.

Zero official subs ... ... and a fraction of WoW players...

Fabulous achievement during this time that the complete subscription based MMO's went down.

THAT is the true story.

I'm a WoW fanatic but doesn't it get old cheerleading like a teenager hyped up on redbull while ignoring any points people raise to counter?

[Gothicshark]

Piece by piece brake down.

WoW .. talking about trolling posts ....

Since when had WoW 15 million subscriptions ?

In the example I gave I pointed out I was using hypothetical numbers, to give an example. I then posted the actual numbers.

in the hypothetical I said 30 million subs 50% WOW, and WOW was down 7million. Then the Real numbers which are not as easy on Maths.

30 million Subs, WOW had 12 million, so not 50%, WOW is down 5.2million Which is about 20% of the market still. My point is valid and stands. BTW the approximate Global MMO Market has about 100 million subscriptions, most of those are in Asia, most are playing the big Asian MMOs. They are earning about 10 billion a year spread out over 5-6 MMOs, none of which are in English.

Yes the MMO genre is growing, and it's mostly in China.

Since when is upping "profitability" of free to play MMO's has ANYTHING to do with overall global revenue in the complete MMO market?

Actually WoW is by far the King of MMORPG's in overall revenue. Over 1 billion dollars revenue in 2013 worldwide.

SOURCE' http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

Important: -----> free to play games with microtransactions were INCLUDED in the list !

----- Conclusions of that study-----
WoW almost grossed more revenue in 2013 than the numbers 2-9 MMO combined. Number 10 was Rift with a 3% of WoW total grossings.

The numbers 2 and 3 are not even played in the West.

2013 did not even have an expansion box of WoW, go figure how much extra revenue a new launched WoD will add to the grossings ....

-----

Once again gamespot only deals with Western Games, they do not follow or report on Asian only games unless they find out the game is being marketed to the west. When you drop Asian numbers MMOs are not doing well. When you learn to read MMO data in Chinese you'll gain a new understanding of where MMOs are going.

[BenBos]

Piece by piece brake down.


/Cut of the fantasy theories ..../

Once again gamespot only deals with Western Games, they do not follow or report on Asian only games unless they find out the game is being marketed to the west. When you drop Asian numbers MMOs are not doing well. When you learn to read MMO data in Chinese you'll gain a new understanding of where MMOs are going.

Now the HARD researched FACTS.

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

Good: the numbers 2 AND 3 on that list ARE Asian MMO's. These figures are WORLDWIDE ...

The study came from SuperDataResearch btw, a buro that specialises in these studies...

If you drop them WOW would have even MORE % in grossings than that study shows...

ALSO: EDIT !: Today Rift just deleted 2 more servers worldwide.

Rift stands now at 13 servers coming from 99 servers at launch '(2011!) ... where they HAD 1 million subscribers at launch...

FREE to play Rift (still number 10 on the chart btw) ...now has less than 3% of WOW's revenue... where they had around 10% of the WOW market share at their launch (1 M subs ...).

----
Lesson learned: with THAT domination chart of WOW in the link it simply proves you ALWAYS need to look at the complete industry when analysing a game.

Side note: most Chinese MMO's they don't make shit in revenue as Chinese wages are around 7% of western salaries. In no way they could even reach the top 10 in revenue. You are hanging on straws btw if you need to allude to complete unknown Chinese garbage to say "MMO's are growing".

[Pann]

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

Good: the numbers 2 AND 3 on that list ARE Asian MMO's. These figures are WORLDWIDE ...

If you drop them WOW would have even MORE % in grossings than that list shows...

Both are available worldwide. So what is your point?

[BenBos]

About Lineage 1: "In May 2011 NCSoft announced that due to unprofitability the North American Servers would be shut down on June 29, 2011"

So nope you are wrong again, the number 2 on that list, Lineage 1, can now be considered a pure Asian MMORPG.

I know the list hurts BIG time for the usual suspects, so here it is again:

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

And once again: the number 10 on that top 10 list NOW shows a mere 3% of WOW's share, while Rift launched with 1 million subscriptions at launch back in 2011... (that's roughly 10% of WOW at that time)....

Even going Free to play in 2013 didn't help the falling off from 99 Rift servers to 13 servers now.

What more proof do you want that the MMO industry is getting hit hard.

So IF you want to do a study about WOW subscriptions, have the intellectual DECENCY to include the fact that almost ALL AAA MMO's went from subscriptions to FREE to play mechanics AND still lost market share to WOW's revenue...

[Deleted]

And ALL the rest

Yeah, "everybody sucks, so us sucking too is actually great" isn't much of an argument dude...

[Pann]

About Lineage 1: "In May 2011 NCSoft announced that due to unprofitability the North American Servers would be shut down on June 29, 2011"

So nope you are wrong again, the number 2 on that list, Lineage 1, can now be considered a pure Asian MMORPG.

I know the list hurts BIG time for the usual suspects, so here it is again:

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wow.../1100-6421191/

And once again: the number 10 on that top 10 list NOW shows a mere 3% of WOW's share, while Rift launched with 1 million subscriptions at launch back in 2011... (that's roughly 10% of WOW at that time)....

Even going Free to play in 2013 didn't help the falling off from 99 Rift servers to 13 servers now.

What more proof do you want that the MMO industry is getting hit hard.

So IF you want to do a study about WOW subscriptions, have the intellectual DECENCY to include the fact that almost ALL AAA MMO's went from subscriptions to FREE to play mechanics AND still lost market share to WOW's revenue...

Well I did not know that, I didn't really care but it is always nice to learn new things. However Lineage's largest market is Korea which operates a Western sub model (often alongside a pay per minute model). Whilst yes it does only operate in Asia this is not the same as the Chinese market which the person you replied to was talking about.

I notice you are keen to point out my error but not admit any of yours.

Why would the list hurt? It is just a list.

I didn't say anything about Rift why are you still talking about it in a thread about WOW and specifically about WoD's subs?

We've been over this before, the number of servers Rift has and your obsession with them is well... really quite boring.

I would like something more than a list and your fetish with the number of servers Rift has as proof please.

Of course AAA titles that went free to play would lose market share in the subscription market.

[BenBos]

Yeah, "everybody sucks, so us sucking too is actually great" isn't much of an argument dude...

I don't think that a game making 1 billion dollars revenue per year - after 10 years - is not even close to "suck".


The rest though that needed to drop official subscriptions all together are showing the state of the downward trend overall.

And to the usual commentator above: I took Rift as an example because it still sits there at number 10 in the study while they dropped from 10% of WOW's share at launch in 2011 (1 million subscriptions) to 3% of WOW's share NOW. (See ... no mentioning even of the 87% drops in Rift servers at all .)

So quite clear: WOW is doing great compared to the others that were launched as AAA MMO's a few years back.

[Deleted]

So quite clear: WOW is doing great compared to the others that were launched as AAA MMO's a few years back.

The simple fact is: WoW is in decline.
And no amount of sugarcoating and comparing it to others lackluster fortunes can negate that.

[BenBos]

The simple fact is: WoW is in decline.
And no amount of sugarcoating and comparing it to others lackluster fortunes can negate that.

The fact is that the complete MMORPG industry is in free fall compared to WOW.

And no amount of trash talk can counter the obvious.

"IF you want to do a study about WOW subscriptions, have the intellectual DECENCY to include the fact that almost ALL AAA MMO's went from subscriptions to FREE to play mechanics AND still lost a HUGE market share to WOW's overall worldwide revenue..."

Rift had 1M subscriptions at launch, they now stand at a mere 3% of WOW...

Let's take a very recent example: Wildstar.

NO presence on VGChartz on sales, NO presence on Amazon sales, HARDLY activity on Raptr or Xfire (with a downward trend of 90% after 2 months), NO decent showing from streamers NOR followers on Twitch TV.

Actually all you hear is silence... and the game launched a mere 2 months ago...

A few years back (2008-2011) every new MMO had a BIG splash in the industry. Every AAA MMO launched with 800K to 1.5 million subs ... These days you might as well see nothing about it on tracking tools, both in SALES, followers or closed club activity...

[Deleted]

And ALL the rest went free to play during this time ... except niche EVE.

Guild Wars 2 *cough*

Not ALL released as subs... yet another lie from Benbos.

You always seem to compare wow to everything. Other mmos,other games ,films and even books.

Benbos is mentally obsessed with bragging about how much cash Blizzard has made from Wow, its all he ever does. He twists EVERY thread down to bragging about how much money Blizzard has sucked out of Wows playerbase.

Dude its best to just ignore his bullcrap 'financial' posts... hes always wrong anyway.

[Pann]

And to the usual commentator above: I took Rift as an example because it still sits there at number 10 in the study while they dropped from 10% of WOW's share at launch in 2011 (1 million subscriptions) to 3% of WOW's share NOW. (See ... no mentioning even of the 87% drops in Rift servers at all .)

So quite clear: WOW is doing great compared to the others that were launched as AAA MMO's a few years back.

Oooh, I'm the usual commentator now?!

Trion have never released actual subscriber numbers or revenue figures so how do you work out they were had a 10% of WoW's market share? Is seems like you are making things up to suit your argument - again.

WOW is doing great compared to its competitors, although it is likely that LoL will overtake in terms of revenue within the next two to three years, however the most important metric is how it is doing compared to itself where it is not performing so well.

[Deleted]

IF you want to do a study about WOW subscriptions

I don't need "a study about WoW subscriptions" to see they've nearly halved their subscription numbers over the past 3,5 years.

[BenBos]

I don't need "a study about WoW subscriptions" to see they've nearly halved their subscription numbers over the past 3,5 years.

And the rest lost ALL their fixed subscribers ... with the only result that WOW has now even more market share in revenue than before 2011....