Predictive Curve for the future of WoW Subscriptions

[Tisane]

Not sure if OP is serious or trolling

So based on you, every graph going in a certain direction, whether it be up or down, will go in the exact opposite direction, without there being any changes possible. If that would be the case, then even a monkey (not an insult, I'm serious) would be able to predict the life-time of every company in the world.

Someone here think graphs works equal to drawing circles, and it isn't me

[zolok2.0]

Mathematically the OP's graph is correct. But math only deals with numbers and cold logic. Cold logic, however, does not account for the power of free will. It's up to each of us to prove this is a world worth saving! Lel, I digress. It's true though, people could shit their pants because WoD tickles them the right way and WoW could jump up to 9M subs again. We won't know because it's in the future, and I don't know about you, but I cant see into the future.

[Lillyth]

Never read so much bullsh* in a single thread.

Let me elaborate:

A friend of mine likes playing DotA and he likes doing the whole prediction mumbo jumbo as well as you do. After 5 times of the rune spawning top, he swore, it has to be bot, since - you know maths, right? - it spawned top another 9 times.

Math, genius, durr.

[Knough]

Mathematically the OP's graph is correct. But math only deals with numbers and cold logic. Cold logic, however, does not account for the power of free will. It's up to each of us to prove this is a world worth saving! Lel, I digress. It's true though, people could shit their pants because WoD tickles them the right way and WoW could jump up to 9M subs again. We won't know because it's in the future, and I don't know about you, but I cant see into the future.

Even mathematically, all he's done is draw a line of best fit, then continued it.
It's not a viable thing to do in just about any scenario that isn't someone throwing an object forwards.

[Deleted]

You've created a graph based on only two variables: Sub numbers and time.

WoW does not exist on just two variables. This is not accurate.

[Chickat]

Like I said, its obvious that the sub loss is slowing down seen by the 4 quarters with almost no loss in mid MoP. WoD will lose than 2m subs over its life. If its a year expansion, Ill predict it will only lose 500k.

WoD launch subs- 7.5m
WoD tier 2 subs- 7m
WoD Final quarter before 7.0 subs- 6.5m
Expansion 7.0 subs- 7m

[Deleted]

You've created a graph based on only two variables: Sub numbers and time.

WoW does not exist on just two variables. This is not accurate.

Indeed. But hey, it's completely fine to just invent a trend and push it as "the only reasonable assumption".
Most of the lost subs were on asian servers. What does that mean? Will asian servers soon have negative sub numbers?

[Deleted]

wod easily will gain up to 9 million on december 2014, no questions asked.

[Deleted]

This is more like how I think it will go. Note how terrible I am with paint.

Well. At least someone joined in. I just drew a curve over an existing graph. Made no statements about it. Left the rest to you lot. You didn't disappoint.

[schwarzkopf]

Thought I'd put in a realistic 1 yr moving average look at numbers, polynomials just don't do systems like this:

[Deleted]

Thought I'd put in a realistic 1 yr moving average look at numbers, polynomials just don't do systems like this:

I hope no more people cancel their subsribes

[Gumboy]

Frankly from playing many, many hours on beta, i am having more fun in WoD then I have in this game since before cata. Are there problems? Of course. but the setting/atmosphere/garrisons/new mechanics/less abilities is extremely intriging to me. I could see subs actaully RISE during the entire expansion, quite a bit; unless they do something incredibly dumb, like have a raid tier last over a freaking year.

[Deleted]

Frankly from playing many, many hours on beta, i am having more fun in WoD then I have in this game since before cata. Are there problems? Of course. but the setting/atmosphere/garrisons/new mechanics/less abilities is extremely intriging to me. I could see subs actaully RISE during the entire expansion, quite a bit; unless they do something incredibly dumb, like have a raid tier last over a freaking year.

B-but, "the mathematics" say you have to dislike it! If we take old data and extrapolate in a naive way, we get that the whole population of Europe died multiple times (Pestilence, 30-year-war, ...) and that the earth now has 0 and 12 billion humans on it at the same time.

[Louisa Bannon]

Frankly from playing many, many hours on beta, i am having more fun in WoD then I have in this game since before cata. Are there problems? Of course. but the setting/atmosphere/garrisons/new mechanics/less abilities is extremely intriging to me. I could see subs actaully RISE during the entire expansion, quite a bit; unless they do something incredibly dumb, like have a raid tier last over a freaking year.

Yeah, or remove flight...

Or change the way our toons look.

Oh wait...

[Dilbon]

But I have an extremely hard time believing that Blizzard is going to make the game "bad." The community on the other hand, may be the only reason I'll ever leave this game. If the change from F2P has shown us anything it is this: F2P doesn't meant the death of a game (most games do well after going F2P and are more profitable than they were when they are subbed) but it is the death of the games community.

WoW community can't get any worse with F2P.

[Deleted]

Why was SWTOR considered a success at 1 million, but WoW a failure at 2 Million?

I don't think anyone considers SWTOR a success. Anyway, WoW at 2 million is a failure, because the revenues would go down, and when the revenues go down the share price of ATVI goes down, and when the share price of ATVI goes down the shareholders lose money. Shareholders don't like to lose money.

Going f2p would instantly bring in millions of people, and f2p model can be extremely lucrative as has been shown by various different games (including Hearthstone).

[schwarzkopf]

I hope no more people cancel their subsribes

They will, the nature of things is to die. WoW grew fast in its youth, and will grow old and die slowly - like any healthy creation

Looking at the numbers though, another good 6-8 years in the beast

[chase123]

I see the subs being the same next time this year. There will be an increase with the expansion and then the numbers should come back down. This all depends if Blizzard sticks to their promise of yearly expansions, if they continue with 2 year xpacs I can see subs dropping below 5 mil.

[zorkuus]

I don't think anyone considers SWTOR a success.

Going f2p would instantly bring in millions of people, and f2p model can be extremely lucrative as has been shown by various different games (including Hearthstone).

Why aren't you including SWtor? It was in its deathrows more or less before the cartel market and f2p. It's relatively stable now. Or is the measure for success now that you have to be the no. 1 game?

[Osiria]

Yea... that's not gonna happen.

What I think is that it's probably going to increase subs in a few millions when the expansion starts, then start dropping after 2 months. People will get tired after experiencing everything they could or just burned out with the new stuff within the expansion.

Considering patches are going to be miserable, probably something like 5.4, people won't feel there's any reason to stay for these. And that's something that happens with each expansion.

If the subs are going to increase really a lot during the expansion first 2 months or how much it's going to decrease after that, it's hard to know. There might be more people or maybe even less than now.