Predictive Curve for the future of WoW Subscriptions

[Conscious]

so he sub losses ARE stable.

Yeah, so you see the game continues to lose subscriptions.

For the past two expansions the game has lost successive amounts of expansions, two million, then three. It is entirely feasible to lose an additional four million subscriptions.

[Deleted]

These topics are amusing.

One thing you need too remember is, as wow grows older, each year so do WE. And we being real people, life changes, work, marriage, end of school, gf/bfs, family, moved into real life more, commitments, responsibilities etc which take people away from gaming. Thats a life cycle.

And you can still play with all this stuff. And you telling this like only old 30+ players play this game. Sorry dude but many new young people started playing this game. But they just do no find this game fun anymore. Thats why WoW have ral issue gaining new players.

[Deleted]

Why would WoW go free to play with 2 MILLION people still subbed, that's still a huge profit for Blizzard, the only time it would ever go f2p is when the sub numbers drop well below a million.

Why was SWTOR considered a success at 1 million, but WoW a failure at 2 Million?

A very good point lol

I also dont see Wow going F2P when they have such a large playerbase. The only possible scenario where F2P in Wow happens is if Blilzzard wants to significantly raise the sub numbers and they have another revenue stream which covers the lost subs.

And tbh i cannot foresee a situation where that happens.

[Deleted]

The only possible scenario where F2P in Wow happens is if Blilzzard wants to significantly raise the sub numbers and they have another revenue stream which covers the lost subs.

That'd be the "...start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for." I mentioned. And Blizz Store sales of course.

[Strakha]

F2P is when I quit playing WoW. Til then I'll stay subbed.. unless it's the same raid for a year then I just stop playing for a while and do other games or things.

[kamuimac]

That'd be the "...start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for." I mentioned. And Blizz Store sales of course.

not only this charakter's boosts are first sign on horizon of what is gonna continiue to happen over next few years - charakters are first next will be gear catch up for real money - and from there is so close to p2w model

[Deleted]

My opinion, is that WoW will bleed slowly but surely, but it will be alive for a long long long time. Look even at the original everquest it is still going, with close to 20 expansions, so yeah, WoW will survive much longer Due to the amount of people playing. Want subs put into perspective? WoW still has more subscribers tha the population of Norway or denmark. So yeah, it will bleed but not instantly.

[clevin]

It is at 6.8 million. Why lie ?

Will it loose subs in the future ? Yes, but it will regain subs as well.

It is just a cycle. It is enough that WoW is relaunched with new levels, new expansions and ... the movie and you'l realise this is an up and down cycle.

But the overall trend is down since LK. To argue otherwise is irrational and in denial of the facts. Yes, you get a bump up slightly at expansion release - as i stated above. And yes, IU was wrong about subs... but do you really think there are 6 million core, never going stop players? i doubt that.

[PaladinBash]

The things most people are whinging about at the moment is garrisons, no flying and lots of orcs. These are people that have not played the beta much and if they have, have not been testing out raids and dungeons extensively. If they had, they would know these things are wayyyyyyy harder than MoP instances and even harder than Cata ones. These are not things you will be outgearing for a long time and a lot of bosses have heaps of things that will kill you if you stand in it or are stupid. Doesn't sound hard right? Wrong. People have been raving for years about how good 'old wow' was and how 'challenging' mechanics were. Those people are going to get their wish and the vast majority of them never actually played then. They are going to see these things and all whinging about garrions/no flying/orcs will be replaced overnight with 'nerf plz' posts. Just you watch.

These people will leave the game in droves. They are the only people I see actually quitting besides the usual dropping off of people bored or waiting for the next patch. Sub losses are not a bad thing if it means these whingers and baddies leave.

[Deleted]

I find it hilarious you bring up the east considering you always forget the fact the reason Blizzard gets pennies on the dollar in the east because Netease's contract gives them the majority of the profit. You are talking out of your ass as usual.

Fuck free to play, subscription mmos are doing just fine in other markets.

I find you rude response hilarious considering your don't bring up anything that contradicts or even has any real relevance to my post. I was saying WoW could stay subscription based in some countries independently from bad performance in some other countries in years and Blizzard doesn't decide the business model of WoW in China, no matter how much profits Blizzard or ActivisionBlizzard makes. Your post makes no sense. I am certain my post snapped some nerves, but that is no excuse for the mental garbage you just posted.

What do pennies from the Chinese publisher have to to with the fact that business models in Asia could change from P2P to F2P in the East independently from the West or even independently from Blizzards decissions in China? I wasn't even talking about earnings or profits.

What does it matter if other subscription MMO are doing fine in Asia? We are talking about WoW and what could happen if things go on as they are opposed to the uneducated replies from denialists talking about the numbers without any (relevant) context. Aren't you denialist not blaming every lost subscriber on the East anyways? Now aren't the Millions lost in the East? They can't be lost nowhere, just because Blizzard said most have been lost in the East and you blame all on them at one time and the next moment you bring up a stupid argument like that and want to deny the losses in the East as well? WoWs sub losses are facts. The server consolidations are facts. What the fuck are your trying to accomplish?

How do I 'forget' the profit in a post that has no implications about profits? I was not even talking about anything of that sort and it has no relevance to my post. How am I even the one who 'always forgets' it, when I am the one who always keeps reminding dishonest hypocrites like you about these pennies when you are talking 'from your ass' about profits or earnings again, like your denialists well beloved everyone pays $15 arguments. Of course I only bring it up when it matters unlike your pointless reminder just now.

Stop acting stupid and dishonest to attack people talking rationally and honest about this topic. I can give that 'talking from your ass as usual' right back to you.

[BenBos]

But the overall trend is down since LK. To argue otherwise is irrational and in denial of the facts. Yes, you get a bump up slightly at expansion release - as i stated above. And yes, IU was wrong about subs... but do you really think there are 6 million core, never going stop players? i doubt that.

The only problem is in the recruiting part. WoW players fluctuate and always did.

You didn't read my post at all. The downward trend is due to the fact ALL competition went free to play and abandoned subscriptions after 1 or 2 years. THAT is what you saw since 2010 ...

Recruiting new players against so called free to play games is extremely difficult.

But this 2010-2013 trend of going f2p is now in an end cycle, hence WoW stayed 5 quarters in a row at a very stable 7.5 millon subs. The last quarter was a case of launching 2 new duds and the end of an expansion.

Like I said: a relaunching of WoW is very possible and the way they did it in WoD is clear: you can start at lvl 90.


I doubt Blizzard will continue above lvl 100: they'll reset the leveling part with the movie launching in March 2016.

So yes, by 2016, WoW will grow : a simple question of recruiting numbers again with mechanics resetting.

I am convinced the "start at lvl 90" in WoD and the new yearly cycle of upcoming expansions is a clear sign WoW will be "reset" with each new expansion as of now.

A kind of CoD effect that will keep going for the next decade.

There are many ways possible to implement these "reset" mechanics. It is up to Blizzard to decide which method would be best and I am sure we will learn more about it in 2015. The new starting point at lvl 90 is just one alternative to "start fresh in a new expansion". But other more drastic measures could be introduced when new races/class start at lvl 1 again...

-----------------

--- 2014 was clearly a transition year in which Blizzard restructured the backbone infrastructure of a 10 year old Legacy system.

WoW is no longer dependant on single server populated worlds: that's an incredible ace in future world design where phased instances can be melted seamlessly across several servers.

The content based on this new technology is introduced in WoD and will certainly be build upon in the new yearly expansions coming.

[taliey]

Numbers don't lie... but the people who crunch the numbers do.

[Deleted]

Numbers don't lie... but the people who crunch the numbers do.

Blizzard is a public traded company. Lying about statistics and numbers constitutes fraud and is punishable by jail. Also lying to your shareholders is punishable by jail.

I don't think anyone at Blizzard would take the risk of landing in prison just so that Anarch can't gloat at Blizzard's loss in subs.

[Deleted]

Yeah, so you see the game continues to lose subscriptions.

For the past two expansions the game has lost successive amounts of expansions, two million, then three. It is entirely feasible to lose an additional four million subscriptions.

Not really. While the quarterly loss in MoP has remained just as steep as in Catayclsm with only one exception after a long discount campaign you can't expect WoW to lose the same player numbers every expansion. After two expansion it wouldn't have any player left. This one is just consequence of the long content draught on top of an aging game.

5%, 4%, 3% or 2% loss. I expect it to continue every quarter after the release. But 5% wont always be half a Million player. The loss will get smaller with a smaller base, unless Blizzard jumps ship and leaves WoW to the wolves or just stops releasing content in WoD entirely.

[xanzul]

it's AT 6 million NOW. Do you really think WoW will never lose another sub from here?

And yet after every big loss, subscriptions level out for significant amounts of time. This is fact. I'm sorry you are butthurt over it.

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Perhaps you could elaborate a bit on what caused you to come to that conclusion. Something a little more well thought out, and less generic would be awesome.

Millions of people have quit for literally millions of reasons. It is beyond empty headed to claim anything otherwise. Also a fact people need to take into consideration is millions have quit this game since the day Wow launched. This game has had significant amounts of subscriber churn and the only reason there have been drops in concurrent subscriptions is because the rate of people entering the game is now lower than the rate of people leaving. It is pure idiocy to think the 12 million we had in Wrath were all the same exact 12 million people.

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Yeah, so you see the game continues to lose subscriptions.

For the past two expansions the game has lost successive amounts of expansions, two million, then three. It is entirely feasible to lose an additional four million subscriptions.

That's nice. Millions of people quit during vanilla and TBC as well. I wish Blizzard would actually release full subscription numbers rather than just the concurrent subscriptions. It would get the haters to finally shut the fuck up about how Blizzard is killing wow.

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And you can still play with all this stuff. And you telling this like only old 30+ players play this game. Sorry dude but many new young people started playing this game. But they just do no find this game fun anymore. Thats why WoW have ral issue gaining new players.

I don't get where people are getting this notion that younger players don't like mmos. This game has new players of all age ranges and demographics. Stop talking out of your ass.

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Numbers don't lie... but the people who crunch the numbers do.

Get out. No one at Blizzard is going ro risk jailtime to pump- up subscription numbers. Wow isn't even Blizzard Entertainment's only product not to mention everything Activision has. Shareholders don't give a flying fuck about the insider politics that happens here on the forums. What they care about is the bottom line and if Blizzard can keep their products sustainable and profitable which they have done quarter to quarter without fail and the revenues show it. Seriously this nonsense needs to result in infractions. It is blatant lying and trolling.

[Stacie]

MMO's are starting to die off now. Everyone who want's to play an MMO hears about WoW or has played it. Its always the safe go to MMO. Can't see any new MMO ever taking its place for as long as Blizzard keeps pumping out content. Because of this it won't die just get less subs and eventually maybe even f2p. It will still be the most popular PC MMO anyway.

The only sort of MMO that might ever overtake WoW on subs in a brand new MMO for a short period (when WoW's subs fall low enough in a few years) or a new style MMOFPS.

Even if Blizzard made WoW 2.0 or a new MMO right now i don't think it would overtake it on subs ever.

[Packing an i5]

lol thats way too extreme of a prediction I think in 2020 wow will still have 4 million subscribers and remember blizzard doesnt need subs anymore with all the microtransactions they have now they also make other games.. they dont care anymore they blame wows decline on old age and think its overall irreversible they have addmitted that wow will most likely not peak at a new high ever again.

bottom line people are tired of the subscription charge and like mr chaos said everyone who was ever going to play wow has already tried it, I think most people are also bored with the overall formula wow still follows: Grind xp level up grind for gear/rating/reputation.

wows engine is really old now they wont be able to update it to be on par with modern games but graphics arent everything its the story and gameplay i feel both of those areas are currenty in the dumper as well all they can do is make the game easier and easier and add new distractions like pet battles and hope a bulk of people stay.

[clevin]

The irrationality and magical thinking here is amusing. So is the immaturity. WoW will have 3-4m subs in 3 years. If you think it will level out where it is now, you're not dealing with reality. If you think subs will INCREASE you're delusional.

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lol thats way too extreme of a prediction I think in 2020 wow will still have 4 million subscribers and remember blizzard doesnt need subs anymore with all the microtransactions they have now they also make other games.. they dont care anymore they blame wows decline on old age and think its overall irreversible they have addmitted that wow will most likely not peak at a new high ever again.

So over the next 6 years they're only going to lose the same amount of subs that they have lost EACH of the last 2 years?? Unlikely when the game is getting older.

As I said above, I think that by 2017-18 we're looking at 2-3m subs. That could be close to t he long term bottom. Of course, several things mitigate this - see my first post in this thread.

[ramjb]

MMO's are starting to die off now. Everyone who want's to play an MMO hears about WoW or has played it. Its always the safe go to MMO. Can't see any new MMO ever taking its place for as long as Blizzard keeps pumping out content. Because of this it won't die just get less subs and eventually maybe even f2p. It will still be the most popular PC MMO anyway.

The only sort of MMO that might ever overtake WoW on subs in a brand new MMO for a short period (when WoW's subs fall low enough in a few years) or a new style MMOFPS.

Even if Blizzard made WoW 2.0 or a new MMO right now i don't think it would overtake it on subs ever.

What a load of bollocks. The MMO market is growing spectacularly everyday not dying off. It's WoW that's being overtaken. It's WoW thats dying. In Asia, WoW is barely a factor these days. Koreans, Chinese and Japanese (e.g. Final Fantasy) all play their own locally made MMOs these days. WoW doesn't even factor into the top five MMOs in China: http://kotaku.com/these-are-chinas-b...mes-1466552827. Asian MMOs are growing so fast and have so much money to spread around that they have partnered with Western companies to bring them to us (look at Archeage, Age of Wushu). Meanwhile WoW closed down its Taiwan and Russia servers.

Meanwhile even in the West, rather than it being a case of what you said "[I] can't see any new MMO ever taking [WoW's] place for as long as Blizzard keeps pumping out content" WoW has already been replaced. WoW is no longer top dog and is just some old junk that people's parents play. MMOs like World of Tanks are more popular and earn more revenue than WoW.

Western MMO rankings:
Club Penguin, Wizard101 and Runescape all have way more active players than WoW (10x!)
Right now WoW in its failing state is only a bit more popular than SWTOR. If SWTOR is widely regarded as a total failure of a MMO, what does that make WoW then? Dead.

[flatpancake]

There will be a point where this curve no longer follows this path and stays relatively steady as the core subscribers stay for however long wow lasts. Personally I'm still having plenty of fun with this game and am very excited for Warlords so I shall be staying subscribed for the foreseeable future.