Obama: Assad Shooting At American Fighters Would Lead To His Overthrow

[TheGravemind]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-...141200579.html

Judging by the language of this statement by Obama, there will be a "Gulf of Tonkin"-esque incident that will give him the excuse to overthrow Assad (since that's in US geopolitical interests anyway.)

Looks like Assad will be brought to justice after all.

If Obama engineers the collapse of the war criminal and depraved Assad regime, he deserves another Nobel prize.

[Olo]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-...141200579.html

Judging by the language of this statement by Obama, there will be a "Gulf of Tonkin"-esque incident that will give him the excuse to overthrow Assad (since that's in US geopolitical interests anyway.)

Looks like Assad will be brought to justice after all.

If Obama wanted Assad gone he had his excuse with chemical weapons. The collapse of the Syrian state will only help ISIS. As long as Assad limits his slaughter to Syrians, he's tolerable.

[Deleted]

Syria isn't like Iraq/Afghanistan. It has a well armed powerful military which is backed by Russian/Iran supplies.

[TheGravemind]

If Obama wanted Assad gone he had his excuse with chemical weapons. The collapse of the Syrian state will only help ISIS.

No, Kerry screwed that up and Putin exploited it by offering to remove chemical weapons, thus eliminating Obama's casus belli.

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Syria isn't like Iraq/Afghanistan. It has a well armed powerful military which is backed by Russian/Iran supplies.

Syria's military is not powerful at all. It's one of the weakest in the world. Most of its equipment is mid Cold War era. It has some old Russian supplies, nothing new. Iran would not be able to supply Syria continuously after we attacked.

The only reason the Assad regime has not fully collapsed is because of Iranian and Hezbollah intervention.

[TZK203]

Why would Obama do that? Does he honestly want another Sunni state to arise from the ashes that will only assist ISIS? Is the man using his brain?

[diddle]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-...141200579.html

Judging by the language of this statement by Obama, there will be a "Gulf of Tonkin"-esque incident that will give him the excuse to overthrow Assad (since that's in US geopolitical interests anyway.)

Looks like Assad will be brought to justice after all.

Assad won't interfere with any anti-ISIS offense by the US. He knows that he has won, no need to poke the bear.

[Olo]

Syria isn't like Iraq/Afghanistan. It has a well armed powerful military which is backed by Russian/Iran supplies.

Syria is dropping steel barrels packed with gun powder out of helicopters because they don't have enough bombs.

No, Kerry screwed that up and Putin exploited it by offering to remove chemical weapons, thus eliminating Obama's casus belli

Bullshit. He could have started bombing immediately. Instead he delayed, went to congress, and found a deal to avoid doing something he did not want to do.

[TheGravemind]

Why would Obama do that? Does he honestly want another Sunni state to arise from the ashes that will only assist ISIS? Is the man using his brain?

Your childishly simplified view of the middle east < Obama's calculus.

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Assad won't interfere with any anti-ISIS offense by the US. He knows that he has won, no need to poke the bear.

Of course he won't, but that doesn't mean some incident will "magically" occur to give Obama a casus belli to overthrow that war criminal.

[PACOX]

Why would Obama do that? Does he honestly want another Sunni state to arise from the ashes that will only assist ISIS? Is the man using his brain?

Well no one likes Assad (except Russia because of their port) but he is better somewhat better than dealing with the power vacuum of him being gone.

[TheGravemind]

Well no one likes Assad (except Russia because of their port) but he is better somewhat better than dealing with the power vacuum of him being gone.

A thousand years of anarchy over a single day of tyranny.

[Dolus]

I don't believe Obama will attack Assad. We no doubt have had CIA-SAD operators working inside the FSA to decipher who is a radical and who is not. We'll likely work with those groups to re-direct their attacks towards ISIS, particularly, around Raqqa. Assad is basically like a king, holed up in his castle. Assad's army is so pathetic that they lost Tabqa airfield.

[TheGravemind]

I don't believe Obama will attack Assad. We no doubt have had CIA-SAD operators working inside the FSA to decipher who is a radical and who is not. We'll likely work with those groups to re-direct their attacks towards ISIS, particularly, around Raqqa. Assad is basically like a king, holed up in his castle. Assad's army is so pathetic that they lost Tabqa airfield.

I think Obama will attack Assad after ISIS is dealt with. And I agree, Assad's army is pathetic. It's only good at killing helpless kids and civilians. The only reason he's still in power is because of Iran and its Lebanese Shi'a militia proxy.

[Stormdash]

The US isn't going to overthrow Assad, a client of Putin's Russia, whose airspace is defended by Russian antiaircraft operated by Russian advisors.

[TheGravemind]

The US isn't going to overthrow Assad, a client of Putin's Russia, whose airspace is defended by Russian antiaircraft operated by Russian advisors.

It's not like we have Tomahawks who would make quick work of AA batteries or anything. And it's not like we have a rather large rebel army on the ground that could easily take care of that, too.

/s

[Dolus]

I think Obama will attack Assad after ISIS is dealt with. And I agree, Assad's army is pathetic. It's only good at killing helpless kids and civilians. The only reason he's still in power is because of Iran and its Lebanese Shi'a militia proxy.

I would agree that after ISIS is eradicated, at that point, Assad would have to be dealt with. Hopefully, Arab leaders would work with the U.S. to try and make a smooth regime change. When Obama said it would only take three years... yeah, maybe, in regard to the actual war/campaign in Iraq and Syria... but... the government... that's a whole different beast. I just have a feeling that Obama will simply kick the can until 2016. There is more mistrust in the ME, atm, just due to our fickle foreign policy. Remember, Obama promised arms to Morsi who was of questionable ilk. Years later, under el-Sisi (more of an ally), we have yet to help them. It's entirely possible that Syria could be set up under a similar paradigm to that of Egypt. Basically, there would be a certain degree of autonomy between the government and the military.

[TZK203]

I would agree that after ISIS is eradicated, at that point, Assad would have to be dealt with. Hopefully, Arab leaders would work with the U.S. to try and make a smooth regime change. When Obama said it would only take three years... yeah, maybe, in regard to the actual war/campaign in Iraq and Syria... but... the government... that's a whole different beast. I just have a feeling that Obama will simply kick the can until 2016.

Or, you know, the CIA can make an American airplane fly over Syrian airspace and "shoot" at it, at least to make it convincing. Obama then would have all the evidence he needs to bomb Assad and his regime to the ground.

[TheGravemind]

Or, you know, the CIA can make an American airplane fly over Syrian airspace and "shoot" at it, at least to make it convincing. Obama then would have all the evidence he needs to bomb Assad and his regime to the ground.

Exactly what I meant when I said "Gulf of Tonkin"-esque incident.

[Kellhound]

The US isn't going to overthrow Assad, a client of Putin's Russia, whose airspace is defended by Russian antiaircraft operated by Russian advisors.

The presence of Russian operators never stopped us in the past.

[jugzilla]

I think the administration is tied down by stupid things they have said in the past. I'm not a big fan of Putin, but he was right on Libya, and he is right on Syria. You take down a dictator in the middle-east at this point, the only local force powerful enough to take control following the vacuum is the Islamists. Assad is our natural ally in fighting the Islamists.

[Kuax]

Nothing surprising. One of the reasons why US created ISIS is to overthrow Assad. Hence US didn't actually do anything beside formal attacks against ISIS yet, so they could justify invasion of Syria. I'm gonna be very surprised if there won't be any US's planes "shot down" or some other fake shit. Unfortunately, if (or should I say when?) it will come to it, there aren't many who can support Syria against US's conquest.