This sounds fairly accurate.
Assuming the launch itself goes off well (and that is a BIG assumption) you still have problems that boil down to simple math.
Just imagine most of the server trying to do the exact same quests, from the same givers, collecting the same things, killing the same quest mobs. It'll be a cluster-frig.
I plan on leveling one of my low-level toons for the first few days, while the intro-zones for WoD clear out.