Feb 2015 sub estimates

[-Superman-]

The recent "game time for gold" is a sign that the sub dropped !

And unlocking Gnome classes... and a handful of other things. They are SCRAMBLING to make numbers look better. If not for THIS quarter, for the next.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

It will drop about a million.

[DechCJC]

Just try to run Molten Core, 3 hours queue.

Enough said.

Haha i've been trying to run that damn thing since release. I got it to pop once and I missed it; Now every time I attempt it i'm never around long enough to actually see the pop. Starting to think i'm gonna actually have to sit in my garrison for a few hours doing nothing just to make sure I get the pop; Sigh. Not even sure I care anymore tbh lol.

OT: about 8~(I can never find this fecking button on the keyboard)9 million imo; Hopefully 6.1 brings a bit of freshness to the end-game.

[McNeil]

My friend list and guild were quite active during the first couple of weeks, but now they have been inactive ever since. And from all the negative reaction I'm reading all over the forums about this expansion, I really doubt it'll keep the 10 million subs for that long. I think see'ing a drop to 8 million wouldn't be that unrealistic, people will find out how barebones this expansion is.

[Conscious]

I'd give it a generous 7.5 million.

With how the content plateau and attrition is hitting players, they'll be extremely lucky to stay in the 8 range.

[slime]

The recent "game time for gold" is a sign that the sub dropped !

It is also the only reason I consider coming back.

[Jjmackey]

The recent "game time for gold" is a sign that the sub dropped !

Or, maybe, just MAYBE it could be an attempt to cut down on the trading of game-time for in-game currency? Same thing for selling 90 boosts, cuts into the power leveling sales market quite a bit I'd imagine.

[Conscious]

It is also the only reason I consider coming back.

Very, very few players will return based on having enough gold to do that.

I would imagine that the feature is more so going to start raising the ' we're going to go F2P Alarm' and just exacerbate subscription losses.

[Xjev]

Very, very few players will return based on having enough gold to do that.

I would imagine that the feature is more so going to start raising the ' we're going to go F2P Alarm' and just exacerbate subscription losses.

I suspect if they add that, many people would use it.

[Pann]

I'd give it a generous 7.5 million.

With how the content plateau and attrition is hitting players, they'll be extremely lucky to stay in the 8 range.

I doubt there will be much of a drop, especially not one that severe, during Q4. Q1 and Q2 '15 are another story although it looks like the marketing department are already on that with the ability to buy or sell sell game time for gold.

- - - Updated - - -

Very, very few players will return based on having enough gold to do that.

I agree that it will not be a great incentive for players to return, however it will be a great incentive for those who are bored but that have a bit of gold to remain subbed.

[Lord Havik]

1. Personal experiences in-game are not a reliable measurement of sub numbers.
2. Most people are at their garrisons, no one hangs out in main cities anymore.
3. Activity always drops off after the post-launch leveling rush. A good deal of people don't hang out in-game after they have done their daily "chores".
4. The subscription attrition rates for WoD are about the same as every expac before it and are vastly outnumbered by new and renewed subs.
5. There's no reason for a poll on this since WoW's sub numbers are a matter of facts and figures rather than one of opinion. One's opinion of a number is invalid if it is not quantifiably correct.

[Conscious]

I doubt there will be much of a drop, especially not one that severe, during Q4. Q1 and Q2 '15 are another story although it looks like the marketing department are already on that with the ability to buy or sell sell game time for gold.

I think Q4 will have the same, if not less than Q3.

That said, I really do feel like that with nothing on the horizon for post Q2 '15, they're looking at a lot of losses, unnecessary ones at that.

I agree that it will not be a great incentive for players to return, however it will be a great incentive for those who are bored but that have a bit of gold to remain subbed.

I feel like the biggest caveat to that system, is that only an extreme minority (compared to the rest of the game) has the gold available to sub themselves without real cash. And on the other side of that, an extreme minority has the money on hand to buy and resale that game time, so much so that they will come back for that.

Even then, the ability to stay subbed for free, is most likely going to reduce content consumption outside of stay self sufficient.

Edit: Ding, 5000!

[Deleted]

i think it will be below 4 million.

[Pann]

I think Q4 will have the same, if not less than Q3.

That said, I really do feel like that with nothing on the horizon for post Q2 '15, they're looking at a lot of losses, unnecessary ones at that.

I think WoD released too late into Q4 for losses to really take hold, especially with the 5 days free. My feeling is that people, for the most part, will give it at least a month before deciding to quit which will keep their sub active throughout Q4.

I feel like the biggest caveat to that system, is that only an extreme minority (compared to the rest of the game) has the gold available to sub themselves without real cash. And on the other side of that, an extreme minority has the money on hand to buy and resale that game time, so much so that they will come back for that.

Even then, the ability to stay subbed for free, is most likely going to reduce content consumption outside of stay self sufficient.

Edit: Ding, 5000!

I don't think this will be the case, I think people are vastly over-estimating the price in gold a month sub will sell for. Again I am not sure that is the case, or the illegal gold selling market would have dried up through lack of demand.

[melodramocracy]

Rest assured, if we lose subs, it's only because the game is old.

I mean.. that's how folks explained away the MoP exodus, and the game's that much older now!

[MrExcelion]

New raid is coming which should help. Quarter after that you'll have gametime for gold. Probably a loss on both accounts though. The thing Blizzard is missing with gametime/gold is that you have to resub/get a trial to get back in there and buy it. Maybe by design.

[Stonecloak]

Something's got me a bit miffed. When WoD released I remember Blizz saying they lowered the max players per realm to combat the overflow of players. Which caused a que on a low pop realm I'm a part of. Then they said they would increase the amount of instances to suit the influx of players. What does this even mean? It sounds backwards and now has me thinking was it just staged?

[Varabently]

So we had 10 million+ at launch and maybe even went up to 10.5 ~ 11m after the report, but in my experience (validated by others concerns) I've never seen so many people leave so quickly, main cities were bursting, loads of people online in guild and friends list etc but now lots of them have disappeared.

I predict this will be the biggest sub drop in WoWs history, what do you guys think?

I think you simply don't have enough information to make any sort of claim that you're trying to make. WoD is by most accounts the best expac since wotlk, so why would you expect such a huge drop in subs?

[Deleted]

I'm very pessimistic about this expansion, but for once I suppose I'll be the optimistic here and say about 900-800k drop. I still believe it has dropped a significant number, but nothing soul crushing. IP alone carries a lot of weight regardless if shit expansion or not. There is however nothing that warrants for the game to go any higher than 10 million as it stands.

[PrairieChicken]

It will be about the same.

Because:
1. It is only a month and half into expansion in Q4, not enough time to cause any significant loss
2. 10 mil was before Asian release, which means the actual peak would have been higher