The Economic effect of 6.1 and why it leads to partial deflation

[Psidum]

@MegaVolti

The gold influx is totally inflationary, not sure what i was thinking when i said it was the opposite.

Your point about the anti botting aspect of time gated resources that is exactly what i saw when i first read about wod professions. The removal of profitable vendor flips also would imply this was the direction they were heading. I was surprised when they added the spirits gained from farming late in the beta, seamed to contradict this.

I have no idea where they are going now. Like many recent changes it feels stop gap rather than thought out.

[kamuimac]

Gold is what is going to cause the most long term issues. Today I have 12 L100 toons, each has between 1 to 3 L100 treasure hunters + the one leveling from the inn. The gold I have made from sending them on missions twice a day (between all returns not just pure gold), there is a point where it goes from great to stupid. Averaged out I am making around 500-1000 gold a day per toon in immediate gold or gold from vendor. That is gold that is directly hitting the economy. Garrisons are acting like printing presses and I think everyone knows what happens when you mass produce a currency.

this is true as long as someone indeed has 11 fully operation garrisons and is sending all follwoers in each garrison on mission daily - and how many of people like it is out there ? other thing u forget is in order to fully open 11 garrisons u needed to invest 250k+ gold (not even considering time investment) so why shouldnt garrisosn offer u decent gold in return.

[Pur1tas]

First off: The patch will not lead to deflation, it will lead to inflation instead. But that has nothing whatsoever to do with professions.

Price is determined by supply and demand. That includes supply of gold, too. If everyone is swimming in gold then prices rise, if gold is hard to come by they drop. The patch introduced higher gold rewards from garrison missions through a follower trait so the overall gold generated will rise which means prices on average will rise.

Professions don't have a role in that at all since profession items can not be bought or sold for (a meaningful amount of) gold to NPCs. Gold is not generated or lost when trading a profession item, it is only re-distributed. By changing the re-distribution of profession items in the auction house prices for individual items will shift but as a whole they will neither increase nor decrease.

What will most likely happen is that basic resources get more expensive (more ways to spend them) while items made from time gated resources and bloods become cheaper (more ways to create them). The combination of both (the overall price of the "average" basket of trade goods consumed by the player base) will get slightly more expensive because of the increased overall gold in the economy.

This is a rather shitty change because it means that farming (which is toxic gameplay) and with that also botting become way more attractive than they already are. Using time gated resources and making farmed ones almost useless was an awesome move from Blizzard and could have been a first step to get rid of the toxic farming stuff completely (e.g. making all resources time gated instead of farmable) and I'm very sad to see them going in the opposite direction now.

Theoretically the patch could still lead to deflation, though. If people decide to farm more basic materials the supply will increase. If that supply increases faster than the supply of gold then prices will drop. But let's be realistic here: Most basic mats are generated by bots, simply because they can farm all day long. It's bad but it's the reality. They are running anyway, no matter the mat price on the auction house. The supply increase from players starting to farm more will probably be negligible.



This is a real issue but I think it's less severe than you think. There are not many people with 12 max lvl toons. Most players don't even have 3. And those won't all be running missions on a daily basis. The general player base is way less active than you might think
The overall effect of this is real but I wouldn't call it "mass producing" a currency. In the end it's not worse than people farming daily quests which gave significant gold rewards.
Auction house fees also counter balance that. Gold increase in the economy is fixed by the amount Blizzard gives us via the garrision, vendor prices or quest rewards. Gold decrease in the economy is determined mainly by auction house fees (plus maybe cost for repairs, those add up and are paid by everyone). If prices rise then the auction house fees (calculated as percentage of the price) rise, too, until there is a balance between gold generation and gold destruction. It's a self-regulating system and a mild inflation should be able to raise the average auction house fee high enough to counter the additional gold influx from treasure hunters.

Okay I did not bother to read everything but there is absolutely no reason why prices would rise just because there is more gold. In the real world this would be right but this is world of warcraft where people don't need to eat and drink and the market ist purely determined by the demand and the supply. As the Supply is high as fuck it is almost irrelevant and only pushing the prices down. The demand though is low and will decrease even more as there is just nothing worth buying from the auction house except for luxury goods. So This will lead to DEFLATION and no inflation. Inflation would mean everything would go up in prices but as the supply is so insanely high the prices will never go up. The prices will drop and drop and drop.

Relatively speaking you are right about it actually being inflation but as there is no exchange rate to gold and the value of gold itself is essentially staying the same. You just able to buy more from the same amount of gold now. This is deflation not inflation. THe good thing about the system is that if there is either of these you can just see it from the auction house prices. So if all auction house prices will go down (and they will because raw mat supply will never get lower as you pointed out and the other mats and crafted stuff will get cheaper) this mean that your gold is worth more goods relatively speaking. It does not really matter though because there is a maximum cap for an Item to buy. So the most you can ever pay for the most luxury item is 1 million gold. So while at the moment you pay 2k gold for a gem within a few weeks this price will be droppend by at least half if not more, depending on how well raw mats are supplied and what price they will balance out. The problem with this though is that the prices for raw mats will not balance out. The fact that there will always be only one vendor active at any given point in time leads to constant price changes for raw mats on a daily basis. This is the real problem because these huge changes in price day by day might get smaller as the time goes by but they will still be at about 50% price change every day. So it is in no way inflation because inflation would mean you could by less with your gold. The prices for gems, crafted gear, flasks, pots or enchants will not rise at any point in time anymore just because the supply will increase. So this is definetly a deflation as your gold becomes worth more relatively speaking, as obviously its not the gold changing value but everything else. Gold is constant.

[Nianif]

I'd expect these items to go for 20k at most on my server and to be honest that is not worth the work. Assuming you got all your mats for about 50 silver each you would be making about 3k gold profit from an 680 items. I would not produce them. Good for you though if they are going for 70k+ on your server.

I stockpiled a few thousand magical water and daily CD mats. So I will not need primal spirit for elemental things and not that many for the daily CD mats. Maybe ~20k mats average per item and the value of the water and Daily CD mats.

I stockpiled 60k flowers (<40 silver) and more than 300k ore (~50 silver).

So I'm able to create 680 items at cost price ~12k gold and I'm pretty sure that I get more than 20k on my server.

We will see, interesting times...

[gallamann]

Since Mr. Fur vendor was only guy first three days, it was only Essence available to go 670-680. The first day I saw those offered in trade at 20k, later that nite they were down to 15k. Yesterday around 10k. The market is finite for those whereas the ability to create is damn near infinite. Most people will GTFO of that market, soon. Those people who farm their own mats, can still sell at "100% profit" (not really). See they probably could have gone and done some other activity in the game and spent the same amount of time to make the same or better money. That mount that was 10 sky crystals in MoP was a great example, the shear amount of items and gold dropped was crazy while farming for those 10 crystals, I easily made 50k+ doing that and gold was not what I was after!

[MegaVolti]

Okay I did not bother to read everything but there is absolutely no reason why prices would rise just because there is more gold.

Maybe you should have read everything there. Prices are the result of supply and demand. When trading materials for gold (that's what the auction house does) the supply of gold is very important. Higher supply of gold generally leads to higher prices (unless there are offsetting effects on the demand-side of course). It's pretty obvious.

[kamuimac]

I stockpiled a few thousand magical water and daily CD mats. So I will not need primal spirit for elemental things and not that many for the daily CD mats. Maybe ~20k mats average per item and the value of the water and Daily CD mats.

I stockpiled 60k flowers (<40 silver) and more than 300k ore (~50 silver).

So I'm able to create 680 items at cost price ~12k gold and I'm pretty sure that I get more than 20k on my server.

We will see, interesting times...

and unless you play on dead server there is at least 20 people planing exackly the same and once u all start undercuting yourself all those plans will go to drain -_-

especially that knowing human nature half of those peopel will aim at scribes trinkets -_-

[azurrei]

and unless you play on dead server there is at least 20 people planing exackly the same and once u all start undercuting yourself all those plans will go to drain -_-

especially that knowing human nature half of those peopel will aim at scribes trinkets -_-

lol probably - I just resold raw mats in the market on my med-high pop servers - made a mint at 500-1000% proft.

[Psidum]

On a side note, I have really enjoyed the la$t few days. Who would have thunk that everyone would rush for resources to trade for bloods. My best so far was selling about 700 cloth for 12g each. Ore today so won't be quite as good.

@azurrei haha you beat me by a few mins

[Mascotte]

On a side note, I have really enjoyed the la$t few days. Who would have thunk that everyone would rush for resources to trade for bloods. My best so far was selling about 700 cloth for 12g each. Ore today so won't be quite as good.

@azurrei haha you beat me by a few mins

Watching people use 700g worth of mats to create a 500g worth SB is kinda sad tho.
And yeah, it happens.

[Deleted]

I found out that re-selling raw mats or creating lower tier upgrades (that take only 150x BOP mats + 15 blood) is much greater profit than selling the new stage 4 upgrades.
Had 180,000 raw mats stockpiled for the patch, now about half of that is gone and I ended up with over 300k profit over past few days. Will be 500k+ for sure.

I could've pushed the buying price needle far higher than I did during the stockpiling phase. High pop server will soak up A LOT of stuff.

Also ore went up to 3g each, other raw mats are holding this price as well. Might as well be worth it to mine in the garrison again.

[Evelyn]

Is it worth converting all or most of my ore and herbs into primal spirits to buy savage bloods, sorcerers waters and earths? I would use those mats to create crafting upgrades to sell.

I am confused about crafting in wod. I have tailoring and engineering. The upgrades take so many mats to create! I create the item, then I have to create 3 upgrades for it to hit 680, and the stats are random? I mean, I can get a 680s from my garrison. 691 warforged/socketed items from my garrison if i am lucky. Then I can run heroic trash groups, and or go buy boes off the ah. How is crafting even worth it? It seems like a better idea to just sell the mats.