Market Inflation with WoW Token

[uopayroll]

1. The number of people that will log on to farm gold, to get 30 days to be able to farm more gold for another 30 days, and with those 30 days farm gold for another 30 will dwindle. Who want so to farm gold just for the ability to farm more gold, there may be some, but not a lot
2. Those that say gold is easy to come by, well for those that make gold easily, they will not farm it...no change there

[rda]

1. The number of people that will log on to farm gold, to get 30 days to be able to farm more gold for another 30 days, and with those 30 days farm gold for another 30 will dwindle. Who want so to farm gold just for the ability to farm more gold, there may be some, but not a lot
2. Those that say gold is easy to come by, well for those that make gold easily, they will not farm it...no change there

Bot farms and auction house.

[Raelbo]

Tokens heavily incentivize making gold - and a lot of that gold will be made out of thin air. That's why there will be inflation.

No, tokens simply incentivize making gold. How much, and importantly, for how long, is debatable. This is a debate you have avoided for months, and one you should engage in, because when you do, you'll realise the critical error in your thinking.

[Kaganfindel]

Gold is just exchanging hands between players and Blizz is getting $15 from one person, and $15 less from another person.

You're half right. Blizzard isn't going to sell these things for as little as one month's sub purchased in the regular way. They'll sell it a few dollars higher so they make a few dollars off every transaction.

[rda]

No, tokens simply incentivize making gold. How much, and importantly, for how long, is debatable. This is a debate you have avoided for months, and one you should engage in, because when you do, you'll realise the critical error in your thinking.

I have answered so many of your posts on that it is not funny, yet you say I "avoid the debate".

If you have something more interesting to say, go ahead.

Otherwise, let's just wait and see.

[A Dark Knight]

Neither had a sub which made you pay real money monthly.

what does that have to do with anything ?

[rda]

what does that have to do with anything ?

The poster I replied to said "we'll manage" and mentioned two other games that supposedly did manage. I said that the situation is very different, because neither of the mentioned games had a sub (and WoW has).

[Raelbo]

Everyone would buy a token given the right price in gold.

Everyone would buy tokens given the right price in $$ as well.

The point is that the price cannot be right for everyone because everyone places a different value on gold and on real money. People who place high value on gold, and low value on real $ will buy tokens from the shop for $. People who place high value on real $ and low value on gold will buy the tokens off the AH for gold.

The more people buy tokens from the shop, the lower the gold price will go until people stop seeing the value proposition of exchanging $ for gold. The more people that buy tokens from the AH, the more it will drive the token price in gold up until people stop seeing the value proposition in sacrificing gold to save a few $.

These two forces will push against each other until an equilibrium is reached.

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I have answered so many of your posts on that it is not funny, yet you say I "avoid the debate".

If you have something more interesting to say, go ahead.

Otherwise, let's just wait and see.

You and I have very a different understanding of the word "debate" my friend

[rda]

Everyone would buy tokens given the right price in $$ as well.

The point is that the price cannot be right for everyone because everyone places a different value on gold and on real money. People who place high value on gold, and low value on real $ will buy tokens from the shop for $. People who place high value on real $ and low value on gold will buy the tokens off the AH for gold.

The more people buy tokens from the shop, the lower the gold price will go until people stop seeing the value proposition of exchanging $ for gold. The more people that buy tokens from the AH, the more it will drive the token price in gold up until people stop seeing the value proposition in sacrificing gold to save a few $.

These two forces will push against each other until an equilibrium is reached.

Two forces push against each other, yes, and there is also a third force that makes people farm gold because it can be exchanged for game time and / or real money. There will be an equilibrium, sure, and prices for everything will go up, too, no contradictions.

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You and I have very a different understanding of the word "debate" my friend

Say something specific, please.

[Schwert]

People already buy gold in large amounts.
People who think this is going to severely effect the market are blind to that fact - especially since the gold isn't technically generated.

[rda]

People already buy gold in large amounts.
People who think this is going to severely effect the market are blind to that fact - especially since the gold isn't technically generated.

http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post32566184

(Should make a FAQ or something...)

[Raelbo]

Two forces push against each other, yes, and there is also a third force that makes people farm gold because it can be exchanged for game time and / or real money. There will be an equilibrium, sure, and prices for everything will go up, too, no contradictions.

What "third force"?

People have been playing this game for 10 years. Most are stuck in their ways. Some have what it takes to make make a lot of gold. Most don't. There are going to be a limited number of tokens available and the people who will be able to afford them are those top x percent of those most successful at making gold already. Yes, some players will be highly motivated to elevate themselves to the point where they will be able to join the upper echelons who can afford the tokens, but most will give up pretty quickly.

Equilibrium will be reached pretty quickly, and for most people, it will be business as usual.

Very few people are going to be prepared to suddenly change the way they play the game and put massive amounts of effort into making gold, just to save a few paltry $$. It's simply not rational.

[rowaasr13]

With the WoW Token coming, I see the gold market inflating even more than it is now. We're at the highest gold inflation in WoW's history atm, but I see the token taking this to even higher levels. It's going to be so easy to spend $10 (or whatever) on a presumbily large amount of gold through the token.

You DO understand that this gold comes from another player and ZERO gold is added to economy through token, right?

[rda]

What "third force"?

People have been playing this game for 10 years. Most are stuck in their ways. Some have what it takes to make make a lot of gold. Most don't. There are going to be a limited number of tokens available and the people who will be able to afford them are those top x percent of those most successful at making gold already. Yes, some players will be highly motivated to elevate themselves to the point where they will be able to join the upper echelons who can afford the tokens, but most will give up pretty quickly.

Equilibrium will be reached pretty quickly, and for most people, it will be business as usual.

Very few people are going to be prepared to suddenly change the way they play the game and put massive amounts of effort into making gold, just to save a few paltry $$. It's simply not rational.

The game didn't have gametime tokens before. This changes it.

I already said that the equilibrium will be reached, the point is that there will be inflation.

[Alroxas]

It's going to be so easy to spend $10 (or whatever) on a presumbily large amount of gold through the token.

People should really look over the FAQ that blizzard published with the notes of the new Tokens. Let's highlight a few very important things:

Q: Can I resell a WoW Token after I’ve purchased it for gold?
A: No, each WoW Token can only be sold once. After you purchase a Token for gold, it becomes Soulbound. At that point, it can only be redeemed for game time.

The person with the cash will buy a WoW Token good for 30 days of game time from Warcraft’s in-game shop. Blizzard hasn’t set the cash price yet, Hazzikostas said, but “it’s not going to be cheaper than a monthly subscription,” which runs $15 a month.

Source

And lastly this quote:

Q: How much gold will I receive when I sell a WoW Token?
A: The gold value of a Token will be determined dynamically based on supply and demand. When you put a Token up for sale, you’ll be quoted the amount of gold you’ll receive upon a successful sale. If you then decide to place the Token up for sale, that amount is locked in, and the gold will be sent to your mailbox after another player purchases your Token.

Why are these quotes important? Because first it establishes that Blizzard is highly in control of the tokens to the point where there is no real player driven market. You're looking at spending around $15+ for a token which can only be sold ONCE for a gold price that is determined by Blizzard "supply/demand" analysis.

If anything this is merely another gold sink very similar to the BMAH but it also serves as a counter to the gold selling sites on the web (which funny enough, Blizzard quotes as one of the primary reason they are introducing it).

The real question is if game time for gold will work better than that pet that they were trying to convince people to buy/sell.

[rda]

You DO understand that this gold comes from another player and ZERO gold is added to economy through token, right?

http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post32566184

Noone reads, I guess... this non-point is repeated several times per page.

[Gnomorepuns]

Well, we can call it whatever - successful or disastrous - it doesn't matter.

The effect on the game will be heavy. I personally don't like what it will be, others might like it... /shrug

I think you might be missing though that the change will absolutely not stop third-party gold sellers, but will instead prop them up heavily. Everyone would feel the effects, too, there's no "don't care - still don't have to", the economy is everyone's.

We will see. Theoretically it shouldn't, but we will see if that money trickles into markets for items, BMAH, Flasks, Toys, Pets, ect. I think you will see an inflation on prices for some things, it's just a matter of what and when. Hell it could be a good thing for a gold sink depending if those wanting to do this spend it all on the BMAH. Don't have a clue if that will happen, but we shall see.

[Raelbo]

http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post32566184

Noone reads, I guess... this non-point is repeated several times per page.

Read and replied: http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post32566629

You never really bothered to defend your assertion, so it's no surprise no one is taking it seriously.

[rda]

Why are these quotes important? Because first it establishes that Blizzard is highly in control of the tokens to the point where there is no real player driven market. You're looking at spending around $15+ for a token which can only be sold ONCE for a gold price that is determined by Blizzard "supply/demand" analysis.

If anything this is merely another gold sink very similar to the BMAH but it also serves as a counter to the gold selling sites on the web (which funny enough, Blizzard quotes as one of the primary reason they are introducing it).

The real question is if game time for gold will work better than that pet that they were trying to convince people to buy/sell.

The market is player-driven, the special buying / selling mechanics are there just to make it safer / easier to buy and sell tokens.

But let's suppose they will just price tokens however they want without paying attention to supply and demand - what happens then? Then it's worse, because:

* if they sell the tokens so that the seller, say, gets 30k while the buyer spends 20k, they have just infused gold into the system = inflation,
* if they sell the tokens so that the seller gets 30k while the buyer spends 40k, they have just created a big black market for buyers and sellers to trade between themselves without tokens.

They can't stray from the equilibrium created by supply and demand.

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Read and replied: http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...1#post32566629

You never really bothered to defend your assertion, so it's no surprise no one is taking it seriously.

And I replied to that - you didn't say anything specific.

[ellieg]

"Q: What happens if the price quoted to me is different from what the Token actually sells for?
A: You will always receive the gold amount quoted to you at the time you place a Token up for sale, regardless of what the current price is when the item actually sells."

From the Q & A. That's not just gold being redistributed. that's gold being introduced into the economy out of thin air. that's inflation.