20 man only mythic is an abject failure

[Deja Thoris]

At Blizzcon 2013, Blizzard announced the new format of 20 man only mythic raiding. The news was received by the playerbase with both enthusiasm and trepidation. Now that the dust has settled and we're the better part of 3 months into Blackrock Foundry. I thought I'd try to see if this decision has been a stroke of genius or a flop of legendary proportions.

Why 20 man mythic? Lets remind ourselves.

Per Lore, on the US forums: (edited for length)

Seeing a lot of debate about the number 20. Let me take a stab at clearing up a few things:We chose to put Mythic at 20 largely for the function of raid design. One of the biggest issues we're currently facing with 10-player Heroic raiding is that of raid composition. It's impossible for every group to have every class, and often that means they're lacking in certain tools, which in turn means that we can't design encounters around those tools...

We want to be able to use those sorts of mechanics again. We can't do that when we're designing

with a 10-player raid size in mind. We don't think we'd be able to get away with it at 15 either.

At 20, it becomes a lot more acceptable for us to say "you should probably bring a Mage to Spellsteal this." And honestly, that's just one example of the sort of encounter mechanics we can start to utilize in a larger group size.

...We just also feel quite strongly that, when the dust settles, we'll be able to provide a better raiding experience for everyone.

The story so far:

There has been a lot of conjecture on what the transition has done to raiding guilds. While ordinary players don't have the data to perform a rigorous analysis we can glean some useful information from wowprogress.

Lets have a look:
On Kazzak EU, 441 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 55 in Blackrock Foundry.

On Twisting Nether EU, 451 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 38 in Blackrock Foundry.

On my connected realm, Blades'Edge / Vek'nilash / Eonar, 70 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege. This number has fallen to 1 in Blackrock Foundry.

On Sageras US, 365 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 43 in Blackrock Foundry.

Those realms represent the giants and the minnows. What about Blackhand EU? It's ranked 40 out of 123 EU realms and the name is somewhat appropriate, lets have a look! 410 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 16 in Blackrock Foundry.

This comes with a caveat. The Siege of Orgrimar kills represent both 10 and 25 man guilds. And of course Blackrock Foundry is in its infancy compared to Siege, which holds the dubious distinction of being the longest tier in the history of the game.Regardless, the trend is clear - The number of guilds participating in the hardest pve content the game has to offer has tanked by more than 90%. If we just look at warm bodies killing a boss, the drop is roughly 85%.Lets face it, raiding is a niche, albeit high profile activity in World of Warcraft. In a game that recently peaked at over 10 million subscribers, a measly 18,792 guilds have killed a heroic boss in Blacrock Foundry. If we assume 15 people participating in a kill per guild, thats less than 300k people - 3% of the playerbase. If we move this on to mythic, that drops almost by a factor of 10 again, 0.4% of the playerbase has killed a Blackrock Foundry Mythic boss.


Ok, so mythic participation has been decimated, why?

Numbers can tell you what happened. They can't tell you why. The "why" is open to interpretation because there are a lot of moving parts at work.
I'm not speaking for everybody but I think my experience will resonate with a lot of people who raided (and cleared) heroic content in previous expansions.

People raid for different reasons. A big driver is the fact that a staple of an MMO is character progression. The best rewards come from raiding, so people raid. Lets not forget its fun too (at least for me!)

When we get to Mythic raiding we can probably break it down something like this:
- The best of the best compete for World / region firsts
- Many have their own races - "Realm first / Best 6 hour a week guild" etc
- Many want a challenge that heroic doesn't offer - the other 19 participants could be npc's for all they care. They just want to kill stuff and collect epics
- Many want a challenge that heroic doesn't offer - they also enjoy the social ties and bonds that raiding brings

This last category is where I slot myself. current heroic content won't keep me busy forever but I value the raid atmosphere highly. I don't want to play with random strangers but with my friends that I've spent the last couple of years slaying dragons with.

It's people like me that the change to the 20 person only format has hurt the most. I'm part of that lost 90% that used to raid "mythic". You see, the difficulty isn't the barrier to entry for many of us. It's the recruitment and maintenance of a roster of like minded people. I refuse point blank to recruit generic "leet pwn dps" who rages at wipes and cries when he doesn't get an epic, guild hops his way up the ladder - you know the type! I want a stable team of people at or about my skill level whose company I enjoy. 10 man gave me that. Out of raid admin to maintain a team shouldn't take more effort and planning than the raid itself.


Build it and they will come! (Or not!)

If we take what Lore said earlier, 20 man only would allow them to design more complete encounters because of class mechanics.
The examples given were pretty generic and we've seen a grand total of *one* brought to life in Blackrock Foundry (Mind controlling mobs on mythic blast furnace - something only priests can do) Thats hardly ground breaking in the innovation department. Also, the solution to situations like this has been in the game forever, the humble extra action button.

What further craps all over this "balanced raid compositon" stuff touted by the developers is once again the obscene amount of class stacking seen in world first kills. Half of the World first kill of Blackhand consisted of a roster of Balance druids / hunters and rogues. The more things change, the more they really stay the same...

Gaming has evolved over the last decade but Blizzard are still atop their ivory tower trying to create content with massive artificial barriers to entry that very few can see. It seems to be working as well for Blizz currently as it did for Wildstar.


So my take on it, the transition to 20 man mythic had been an abject failure. It's excluded a large portion of the niche that participated in raids anyway and the encounters haven't evolved nearly enough to justify the change.

[Calimon-ZJ]

The premise for pretty much your entire argument is completely invalid... because you are comparing mythic SoO to current mythic, which is absolutely ridiculous.

Mythic SoO was so undertuned, it's more in line with normal modes today.
After they converted SoO to mythic, boss kill times took literally 1/4 of the time than it's previous heroic incarnation.
They are nowhere near each other in terms of difficulty.

[l33t]

I do agree with that, since, everything Blizzard stated is a non-issue, while class stacking is. So, since there is still absolutely zero class balance, let us have flexible mythic.

[Backlashe]

I refuse point blank to recruit generic "leet pwn dps" who rages at wipes and cries when he doesn't get an epic, guild hops his way up the ladder - you know the type!

You are not evolving. The game is not the same game it was in Mop, just as the game was not the same as it was in Cataclysm when MoP came out. Mythic is not going anywhere. It DOES work because the TRUE end game, which is mythic, is now more easily tuned. If you cannot get on board the 20 man raiding format, then you will have to be happy with heroic being your end game.

My advice? Quit being stubborn. Don't like raiding with douches? Me either. So I don't. Recruitment may take some time but the players ARE out there. All you need to do is find them. All else fails, you could always just find someone you like and train them to raid. The game is not hard.

[Eace]

You are comparing mythic SoO to current mythic, which is absolutely ridiculous. Mythic SoO was so undertuned, it's more in line with normal modes today. After they converted SoO to mythic, boss kill times took literally 1/4 of the time than it's previous heroic incarnation.

This. Also, BRF has been out for less than 2 months. SoO was out for 14.

[MrExcelion]

I wonder how many guilds are out there are satisfied with heroic being their endgame. A couple of my friends do raid in ~13-15 man guilds that are still stuck on the later heroic bosses at least and they seem content, but I can't speak for the bigger picture. I should note they raid on med pop servers without mythic guilds really. If they raided on Illidan or Stormrage or something they might bail for mythic opportunities.

[Deleted]

I looked really hard at your OP, but I still cant see what the "failure" is.

[PrairieChicken]

Using SoO as a comparsion is a really bad idea since it was been out for 14 months and nerfed multiple times.

[MoanaLisa]

What I remember was people from Blizzard saying that Mythic was for the best of the best and that not everyone was going to be successful at it. I think that's working out pretty much as intended. I'm not sure it's a failure at all as guilds that do get through it have something to actually be proud about. That was the whole point to it. Not to just create a raid difficulty with a nice name that everyone could get through with a minimum of bother.

As others have pointed out Mythic SoO is hardly a baseline for Mythic in Warlords. So that analysis is pretty suspect.

[Backlashe]

I wonder how many guilds are out there are satisfied with heroic being their endgame. A couple of my friends do raid in ~13-15 man guilds that are still stuck on the later heroic bosses at least and they seem content, but I can't speak for the bigger picture

Those guilds are where mythic guilds get their recruits. The people in those 13-15 raiding guilds will eventually lose people who want "more" and they go searching for mythic guilds. Circle of life ;-)

[Deleted]

Are you REALLY comparing SoO that has been out for over a year to a raid that's out for barely over a month?

Only by making such comparison you've already proven that the rest of your post isn't worth reading at all. 20man has proven to be hard to recruit for SOME guilds, but so far-so good. Also, it's Mythic. Only 55 guilds with Mythic kills? Well others should put their big boy pants on then, and start putting in some actual effort. Mythic is not made for every average Joe. I see groups full of 660+ people with Curve failing in HM HC PuGs, so don't blame the game.

And you thought Mythic SoO that was nerfed to hell and back is the real Mythic experience? HAH! Welcome to the real world.

And what kind of damn argument is "I can't recruit 20 people so this raid size is bad"? You're late man. You should have cleared HC or at least 5/10 in first week and then start looking for raiders. Just because your guild is dreaming about Mythic doesn't mean you're skilled enough to do it, and of course you'll attract no sane raider with "we're 6/10HC but we'll go mythic as soon as we find 5 more people!". Pull your head out of your butt and start working on yourself and your team.

[Deleted]

Sorry.
You cannot compare Mythic Soo kills to BRF.
Soo in pre-patch WAS A FACEROLL. Most guilds didn't kill him before it.

[MrExcelion]

Those guilds are where mythic guilds get their recruits. The people in those 13-15 raiding guilds will eventually lose people who want "more" and they go searching for mythic guilds. Circle of life ;-)

Pretty much. I edited in a little bit extra to my post. I generally think guilds on the lower pop servers are better protected against random poaching/hopping to mythic guilds because of the transfer barrier. Not significant protection though. Like I know in at least one of those guilds I've raided with, they're comparing themselves to other heroic guilds on that low-ish pop server, so they seem content.

[flinchy]

Anyone disagreeing mustn't be playing currently...

I can't raid mythic because we can't get 20 people together, we had 25 for about a month then most of them disappeared (some for legit IRL reasons, to be fair).. we struggle to get 13-15, and more often i log on 15 mins before raid and there's 6-7 people online...

We get someone through the fights and to an acceptable ilvl then they suddenly realm xfer after getting accepted to a 3-4/10 mythic guild, because those mythic guilds themselves are struggling to fill the roster.

Can't do mythic because we don't have enough people, can't get people because we haven't done mythic. it's really killing raiding right now.

[Summer]

I'm actually really liking 20 man mythic, raiding in 10 man always had issues like missing some specific class that could cheese a boss (think warlock portals in ToT for example) or serious tuning problems (garrosh adds on 10 vs 25 etc.). Things feel better now

I realize many 10 man guilds had issues and many died, but many would have died anyways. What you're describing is not different that the first tier in Cata after raids were hard again a year of faceroll ICC.

So yeah, not agreeing with you it's an abject failure, looks pretty good to me

[Calimon-ZJ]

Anyone disagreeing mustn't be playing currently...

I can't raid mythic because we can't get 20 people together, we had 25 for about a month then most of them disappeared.. we struggle to get 13-15, and more often i log on 15 mins before raid and there's 6-7 people online...

We get someone through the fights and to an acceptable ilvl then they suddenly realm xfer after getting accepted to a 3-4/10 mythic guild

Can't do mythic because we don't have enough people, can't get people because we haven't done mythic. it's really killing raiding right now.

People who disagree are not playing because your guild struggles to maintain a roster? lolwut?

[babyboxer]

You wrote an entire book with quotes and paragraphs just to sound whiny and entitled.

[Temp name]

Lets have a look:
On Kazzak EU, 441 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 55 in Blackrock Foundry.

On Twisting Nether EU, 451 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 38 in Blackrock Foundry.

On my connected realm, Blades'Edge / Vek'nilash / Eonar, 70 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege. This number has fallen to 1 in Blackrock Foundry.

On Sageras US, 365 guilds scored a "Mythic" kill in Siege of Orgrimar. This number has fallen to 43 in Blackrock Foundry.

Yes, let's compare something that was out for OVER A YEAR to something that has only been out for about a month.
Makes sense.

[Backlashe]

Anyone disagreeing mustn't be playing currently...

I can't raid mythic because we can't get 20 people together, we had 25 for about a month then most of them disappeared.. we struggle to get 13-15, and more often i log on 15 mins before raid and there's 6-7 people online...

We get someone through the fights and to an acceptable ilvl then they suddenly realm xfer after getting accepted to a 3-4/10 mythic guild

Can't do mythic because we don't have enough people, can't get people because we haven't done mythic. it's really killing raiding right now.

"Can't" is not applicable here. You CAN but you choose not to. Look for a guild off server if yours has nothing to offer you. If you refuse to do that, that is YOUR fault, not the fault of the game. Heck, you mention it in your post.

"We get someone through the fights and to an acceptable ilvl then they suddenly realm xfer after getting accepted to a 3-4/10 mythic guild"

Do the same.

[Deja Thoris]

Yes, let's compare something that was out for OVER A YEAR to something that has only been out for about a month.
Makes sense.

3 months. Grrr!