What if ... Cameron wins and the referendum for UK to leave Europe gets a " yes " ?

[Strear]

Hi,

I'm closely following the election in UK. I still wonder what would happen if UK people choose to leave EU ?

From EU side, we would partly lose a great partner from my point of view. Anyway, what I don't understand for now, is what the consequences would really be in terms of " relationships " with EU ? From my point of view, if UK leaves EU, it should be considered like Russia or Morocco in terms of relationships, as a non european country, but I don't know if leaving EU goes that far. In fact, I fear some kind of " We want to leave Europe because of the bills and technocracy, but we want to keep everything around that could be advantageous ".

By the way, wouldn't the fact to leave EU push a rise for independent Scotland (and even Wales but I don't know much about this country) ? I have some very close scottish friends, and while we were there, they seemed (at least more than english people) very attached to Europe in general ? Is it what you perceive ?

These were my actual thoughts, written in a chaotic way, but it's time to think about all that UK & Europe stuff, and talk about it (gain ).

[Deleted]

Well, I doubt EU-UK relations will sink as low as the EU-Russian one... but yeah, EU-UK relations would be really strained considering what the impact of such a move would be. The financial consequences, how much face the EU will lose...

But yeah, I can imagine the Scottish independence movement gaining a lot of momentum if the UK truly left. Wales, most likely not as much. Welsh seperatism has never been as strong of a force as the Scottish one is.

[Deleted]

These are my Opinions.

London will lose it's statues as a big Financial Sector in the EU. However I believe cities like Frankfurt or Paris will be rushing over each other to fill the void left in such a big market. However London will lose a large source of wealth.

Leaving the EU will also cost the UK money. For example in September 2013. The UK exported goods worth 12BN to the EU. Being part of the EU has trade benefits. So I imagine it would take a hit their also.

I really got no idea what will happen to all the British living abroad. But I have the feeling that if the UK leaves the EU. That they will lose their right to move around freely around Europe.

[Deleted]

Leaving the EU will also cost the UK money. For example in September 2013. The UK exported goods worth 12BN to the EU. Being part of the EU has trade benefits. So I imagine it would take a hit their also.

As far as I'm aware, the UK doesn't want to entirely seperate themselves from the EU, they just want to join EFTA instead, so the trading benefits would still be there. The UK wouldn't be able to influence the decisions made by the EU, that's all.

[Cyberowl]

UK will take a big hit to its economy (bye EU trade in London), imports and exports will be complicated until new agreements are made, EU will lose face and take a smaller hit to its economy, relations between UK and EU will be tense for a few years.

That's my guess at least.

[Cosmic Janitor]

Cameron will never leave the EU, he gets to much out of it, he just can't sell that to his voters, hence why he keeps the farce up whenever he gets the chance...

[Emageht Tsoluoy]

Does the UK have oil?

Because if the UK has oil, then the US will annex it, call it 'Murrkatoo and take all their oil.

[Cyberowl]

Does the UK have oil?

Because if the UK has oil, then the US will annex it, call it 'Murrkatoo and take all their oil.

They actually found a shitton in South England recently, didn't they? And the juicy offshore oil in Scotland.

Don't give them ideas!

[Deleted]

They actually found a shitton in South England recently, didn't they? And the juicy offshore oil in Scotland.

Don't give them ideas!

I thought the Faroe Islands were trying to snatch the offshore oil from Scotland.

Watch out, soon the Faroese flag will wave in front of Westminster...

[MerinPally]

There's plenty of oil discovered under south England problem is that only a tiny percentage of it is accessible any time soon.

Leaving the EU would be a terrible decision. It would not in any way make us sink in relations to a level of EU-Russia, the reason that Europe hates Russia is not because it isn't part of the EU but because it likes to invade it's neighbours, has a dictatorship, a political landscape so corrupt it defies belief and it completely stifles the rights of so many of its citizens. It also takes every opportunity to be directly counter-productive to any aid decision that the rest of EU countries support, by supporting the people fighting against whoever the EU backs.

We'd be fucked, basically. We'd lose a huge amount of money. As it stands, London is a financial powerhouse of the world (indisputable) and the argument for leaving the EU is "We can still trade with Europe like we can now" well actually we can't, not if we want to completely leave the EU. We would still have to trade with them on their terms and if we didn't then we're going to lose, not Europe. There are numerous cities in Germany and France just waiting to rise and become the next London. The EU would also take a massive hit because the UK is the second largest economy in it and also you don't lose one of the financial capitals of the world and just shrug it off. It has impacts. It'd also be a complete mess to sort everything out on a company level too.

Neither Norway or Switzerland are part of the EU but they are have their free movement, so it's not guaranteed the UK would lose that. Scotland already has a pretty strong independence movement, even at the *recent* referendum the problem many people had was not so much the idea of an independent Scotland but rather the plan proposed for how an independent Scotland would work, as it was financed by something they just weren't going to get and it would send the new country into huge debt before they could fix it. This would only strengthen that. Wales only has a small corner of Welsh nationalists so it's unlikely. They also have a problem more severe than Scotland in that Scotland could finance itself however Wales could not, they would need serious investment and development first otherwise the chance of failure is high.

Cameron winning runs the risk of this frankly pointless referendum which I don't even believe we should have, because I don't think we should let blithering idiots play with the financial fate of the country but it does at least have us in a situation where the economy will be stronger. Ed Miliband winning will increase our spending and whilst they say they will fix the economy I flat out don't believe them so that'll put us into financial issues HOWEVER they would not have the EU referendum which would at least prevent too much damage. We don't really like change in this country, it's unlikely we'd vote to leave if we did have it. Honestly though I don't see the point of having one.

"Wah wah don't you want democracy and freedom and choice of the people" - Of course, but I just don't care for it if the decision of the people is completely fucking stupid and I'm willing to let that one slide.

[Noradin]

As far as I'm aware, the UK doesn't want to entirely seperate themselves from the EU, they just want to join EFTA instead, so the trading benefits would still be there. The UK wouldn't be able to influence the decisions made by the EU, that's all.

They cannot be allowed to pick cherries.

[AeneasBK]

Wales only has a small corner of Welsh nationalists so it's unlikely. They also have a problem more severe than Scotland in that Scotland could finance itself however Wales could not, they would need serious investment and development first otherwise the chance of failure is high.

Whilst that is true give it 15-20 years and Welsh tourist industry will be huge. Just have to wait for climate change to kick in a bit more... hue hue hue

[MerinPally]

They cannot be allowed to pick cherries.

We've been doing that for years and the only reason we've been allowed to get away with it is because of how important the UK is tot he EU and vice versa. Why on earth people think that will extend to when we say "Fuck you guys we're out, here's our demands and you're going to give them to us!" is an odd thought process.

[Noradin]

We've been doing that for years and the only reason we've been allowed to get away with it is because of how important the UK is tot he EU and vice versa. Why on earth people think that will extend to when we say "Fuck you guys we're out, here's our demands and you're going to give them to us!" is an odd thought process.

I know it has been allowed (far too much already to the detriment of both sides), but there is has to be a line or everyone would do it. Part of the problem other countries have with the EU is that the UK gets to pick what applies to them.

[Cyberowl]

We've been doing that for years and the only reason we've been allowed to get away with it is because of how important the UK is tot he EU and vice versa. Why on earth people think that will extend to when we say "Fuck you guys we're out, here's our demands and you're going to give them to us!" is an odd thought process.

It's mostly history and UK being a crying child in the background that everyone wants to shut up :P

The UK will never be allowed to keep the economic benefits of the EU without contributing to it. It's more about the way they will contribute to it and if its easier to sell it to your moronic voters in the case of a positive referendum than the status quo.

[Hooked]

I would say get out while you can.

[mmokri]

Corporate EUSSR -1

[MerinPally]

It's mostly history and UK being a crying child in the background that everyone wants to shut up :P

The UK will never be allowed to keep the economic benefits of the EU without contributing to it. It's more about the way they will contribute to it and if its easier to sell it to your moronic voters in the case of a positive referendum than the status quo.

I know this, many other people know this. Most of the problem comes from misinformation. Even at the height of UKIP-mania-bullshit it was incredibly close as to whether we'd leave or not when it was polled. None of the left wing parties want to leave generally, the Tories don't really but it's pretty split, UKIP obviously want to leave. Whilst UKIP will die down (and to an extent die out) in the time between now and a referendum, they would pick up speed again once a referendum was on the cards. Nigel Farage is a truly dangerous man because he is very good at stirring up complaints about immigrants and starting every sentence with "Well the problem with the EU immigration is..." which brings the worst kind of people to the polling stations, who wouldn't show up otherwise.

However we tend not to like change in this country, we have a bit of a history of keeping things as they are because if it ain't broke don't fix it, and a Romanian man and his family living down the end of your road isn't a problem - him collecting benefits from day 1 and sending it out of the country is, but we don't need to leave the EU to fix that. It's like burning your house down because you opened the window and a fly accidentally got in.

Look at the Alternative Vote referendum a few years ago, that was very one sided. Scottish independence was predicted to be really close - and it was up until the actual day of the vote where it suddenly wasn't close and it was 55:45.

- - - Updated - - -

Whilst that is true give it 15-20 years and Welsh tourist industry will be huge. Just have to wait for climate change to kick in a bit more... hue hue hue

Gulf stream interruption might make us colder in the long run, and Wales will forever look like this. Sheep stuck in the snow always make me laugh until I think that the animal is probably pretty miserable That and you already have a thriving tourism industry on Barry island! And I remember you saying the bus station is like a Somalian exclave. That's "exotic" or "tropical" depending on how you look at it, play to your strengths.

Edit: Potential ski resort?

[Acidbaron]

I'll laugh and await the day that the UK begs to re-enter again since it notices the it cannot stand on its own for economic reasons as both the US and UK dwarfs their economy and puts them in an unfavorable position for every trade agreement.

And then the UK returns under our terms and no longer any special treatment that they have been unfairly given for all those decades.

Go on leave the UK, i'm fairly certain that after a few people will call for lynching of those politicians that made that move. Do it, everyone enjoys a good lynching.

[Shammyrock]

Not joining the Euro was supposed to kill London as a financial hub also

But that's none of my business