Missions: 70% feels like 50%

[Stormcall]

Whenever its 96% chance and the reward is good it fails guaranteed.

So explain how my last Blackrock Foundry cache succeeded just fine at a 94% chance?

In other words, RNG is RNG. I've had missions succeed at 36%, and had them fail at 95%, that's what random does.

[huth]

So explain how my last Blackrock Foundry cache succeeded just fine at a 94% chance?

In other words, RNG is RNG. I've had missions succeed at 36%, and had them fail at 95%, that's what random does.

Well, it obviously wasn't a 96% chance

For that matter, i have 1 in 4 25% missions succeed on average.

[ilostmahbucket]

It's complete bullshit. There's only one check, the rest is just pretty graphics. If you want math, check low success missions. They fail far to rarely for your interpretation to be correct. (a 3 follower, 25% success mission would have a total chance of 1 in 64 to succeed if it was correct. You get way more than that)

The whole problem is people relying on their "feeling" to gauge this and a lack of understanding what random distributions look like.

Quoted for truth. Just confirmation bias affecting you, OP.

[Mad_Murdock]

I dunno, the whole thing seems pretty easy to me. you have a 96% chance to win. I do a /roll, if it's 96 or lower I win, if it's 97% or higher I lose. Odds are very much in my favor. But I have rolled back to back 100s in gear before, so I know it's possible to hit high.
Every /roll a 97 for loot and say "Oh yeah it's mine" only to have someone else roll a 99? I have lots of alts and lots of missions going out every day. If it's something I care about I don't roll below a 95%. if not I'll let a 78% out the door and I get lots of wins on 78%.
One week I had 8 toons go out on BRF missions all where in the 89% and higher, one failed with a 95%. The rest won.

Short answer, you need more alts so the one loss doesn't feel so tragic

[Deleted]

I am faling every second mission that is between 80-90%. It's flat out lie about teh success chance.

[Kiramouse]

all my followers are Epic 675 Ilvl... what really gets me is when my 675 epic follower can fail a lvl 96 mission to kill some river beast.. why does my follower who severely out gears the mission get 57% because he has the wrong ability?

[xuros]

I don't think it's a straight up 70% or 80%, I think if you're bringing someone who's undergeared or underleveled, that percentage it spits out is weighted differently; like, a 3 person group, the performance is split 20%/20%/60%, that 60% being the dudeman who's not prepared. You might have a 85% success rating, but there's really a 60% chance that the low level dudeman's going to succeed, and if he fails...everyone does. I have no idea if that made any sense.

That's based on precisely nothing, just my own nonsense reasoning. There's got to be some internal systems at work though, right? I agree that it doesn't feel legit. There's something fucky going on.

I had a HM cache fail with a 99% chance on it. Since then I only do missions that are important with a 100% win chance.

[Tya]

I am too lazy, I am content with making my 20k gold every 4-5 days :P, 2 savage blood farms is more than enough and once upgrade 5/5 comes out savage blood will rocket back up to 350-400g each and we will all benefit.

But what you're already doing takes 50x more time than sending followers on missions.

[Deleted]

(Sorry if the english is poor, even more sorry if the maths are wrong)

I think it's because it depends on the number of follower you're sending on a mission. Each follower must succeed for the mission to be a success.

So, if a mission with three followers has a 75% chance of success, it means that follower #1 has 75% chances of success, follower #2 has 75% chances of success and follower #3 has 75% chances of success.

There is 8 different possibilities :

Success, Success, Success (0,75 * 0,75 * 0,75)
Success, Success, Fail (0,75 * 0,75 * 0,25)
Success, Fail, Success (0,75 * 0,25 * 0,75)
Success, Fail, Fail (0,75 * 0,25 * 0,25)
Fail, Success, Success (0,25 * 0,75 * 0,75)
Fail, Success, Fail (0,25 * 0,75 * 0,25)
Fail, Fail, Success (0,25 * 0,25 * 0,75)
Fail, Fail, Fail (0,25 * 0,25 * 0,25)

Only the first one means that the mission is a success. That's 42,2 %. Almost 6 chances out of 10 to fail...

That would explain why we feel that missions fail more than we expect. But I may be wrong and it could simply be negative biais...

That feels WAY more accurate to me than the 75% figure that the UI states. Once you go below 90% success chance with 3 follower missions, chances seem to fucking tank.
May be biased, as someone mentioned before. CBA investigating, all the relevant missions are 100% on my main.

[azurrei]

I am too lazy, I am content with making my 20k gold every 4-5 days :P, 2 savage blood farms is more than enough and once upgrade 5/5 comes out savage blood will rocket back up to 350-400g each and we will all benefit.

Hmm you might want to reevaluate that thinking...savage blood prices will likely drop by ~50% or more when the patch goes live, not skyrocket back up. The amount of bloods needed to go from Stage 1 to Stage 4 crafted items is being reduced by 25%, the amount of primal spirits needed to purchase 1 savage blood from the primal vendor is being reduced by 50%, Blizzard is not removing the equip 3 limit for crafted items AND Stage 4 and 5 crafted do not use savage blood and the rare material they do use is not produced by the barn.

[Baconeggcheese]

There is only 2 chances, 50% or 100%.

Everything else is a lie.

[medievalman1]

That feels WAY more accurate to me than the 75% figure that the UI states. Once you go below 90% success chance with 3 follower missions, chances seem to fucking tank.
May be biased, as someone mentioned before. CBA investigating, all the relevant missions are 100% on my main.

Its not accurate though. As someone mentioned already, send a level 90 follower on a mission with 2 675 followers. If you attempted to send 3 level 90's on the same mission how abysmally low would your success chance be? That 1 level 90 follower *should* eliminate essentially any success chance on the mission if Bargio's reasoning was accurate.

The more likely scenario is that people suffer from bias and the percentages are actually accurate.

[clevin]

This completely sums up my take. You're trying to extrapolate results from a small pool and your personal feelings are clouding your findings, since you don't remember the majority of successful missions.

Important part bolded. It's why we never remember all of the things that go as expected (the commute where nothing happened vs the one where there was an accident, the day when the weather did what it usually does vs the storm, etc).

[ComputerNerd]

I've failed 98% several times. Realistically this would never happen. I think it isn't an overall percentage and an underlying modifier exists. That or I'm uncannily unlucky. It has happened so much I won't do a mission unless it's 100% - period

It is realistic though, otherwise it would be 100%.
Random is random, and not everyone will have the same experience.

[Unholyground]

Hmm you might want to reevaluate that thinking...savage blood prices will likely drop by ~50% or more when the patch goes live, not skyrocket back up. The amount of bloods needed to go from Stage 1 to Stage 4 crafted items is being reduced by 25%, the amount of primal spirits needed to purchase 1 savage blood from the primal vendor is being reduced by 50%, Blizzard is not removing the equip 3 limit for crafted items AND Stage 4 and 5 crafted do not use savage blood and the rare material they do use is not produced by the barn.

Damn, so they don't want people to amass tokens anymore? lmao. what items do they use to upgrade at 4/5?

[azurrei]

Damn, so they don't want people to amass tokens anymore? lmao. what items do they use to upgrade at 4/5?

http://www.wowhead.com/item=127759/felblight

[Unholyground]

http://www.wowhead.com/item=127759/felblight

So they are finally forcing people to go out and farm again for money? what is this auschwitz? But I jest!

I read Felblood is a thing too and they will be derived from fel beasts similar to savage blood?

[Kantoro]

I have failed 98+% more than 5 times.

Here is a bit of advice concerning Garrison missions. You will fail missions. Just accept it, ignore the frustration and requeue more missions. You get sooooo many chances at missions, just keep sending the guys out, it all equals out. The more missions you send out, the more salvage crates you get, the more easy gold you make.

[medievalman1]

So they are finally forcing people to go out and farm again for money? what is this auschwitz? But I jest!

I read Felblood is a thing too and they will be derived from fel beasts similar to savage blood?

From the quoted wowhead link itself:

"Hotfixes
May 6, 2015 - 6.2 PTR Patch Notes: Updated May 6th
Players fishing from Felmouth Frenzy Schools also have a chance to fish up (Item #127759).
(Item #127759), a new herb has been discovered in Tanaan Jungle.
Withered Herbs harvested in Tanaan Jungle have a chance to drop any Draenor herb, including (Item #127759).
Players have a chance to find (Item #127759) while mining from nodes in Tanaan Jungle.
Players have a chance to find (Item #127759) while skinning creatures in Tanaan Jungle."

[Memnok]

When is 98% chance to succeed not really a 98% chance to succeed - when gear is involved. I have no real evidence to support this except for my personal experience. I seems to have really good luck with 85% + missions that don't involve gear rewards. When gear becomes involved its 50/50 at best, and seems to get worse with the higher item level the piece of gear is. I was 3 out of 5 on my blackrock normal missions with the 2 successful ones being 100%. I am 1 of 3 now with herioc missions. My two fails being at 98% which is the best i can get at the moment. My successful one was 95%. I just blame the inn though focusing on too many treasure hunters and not a complete compliment of abilities.