What Do You Think of The Iran Deal and Where It Will Lead?

[GennGreymane]

As the title suggests what do you think the future of the Iran deal will be?

I will not post any articles as I do not wish to bias any opinions as this is opinion based only.


I personally think Saudi Arabia is the country that will suffer most. They have already begun borrowing in an economy that is resource focused which is not a good sign. Iran's deal likely has oil deals which will hurt Saudi Arabia further.

India has already begun some large investments into Iran for Aluminum

Israel likely will only saber rattle and will try to garner votes for a short time. It is unlikely that an attack would happen as Pakistan also has nukes and supports certain groups, but has not given any to the ones working in Gaza

Iran's government may shift, the higher ups kept power in being anti-west and this deal could change those views

[Bosen]

I think it's an imperfect first real step in peaceful interactions.

We all need resources. That's common ground for every nation and more important than old grudges.

[LegitOne]

ROFL peaceful interactions
All they gonna do is try making working nukes and drop it on nearest country.
Byebye Israel.

[GennGreymane]

Ah forgot another point, I expect Saudi Arabia to start buying more equipment and potentially designing their own nukes

[Daelak]

ROFL peaceful interactions
All they gonna do is try making working nukes and drop it on nearest country.
Byebye Israel.

Did someone say Pakistan?

[Naxere]

I think when you try and make deals with people like this, you'll often end up with the short end of the bargain.

[Deleted]

I think nothing off it since these politics mean nothing with the real agendas going on in the background that we know nothing off.

How people can be interested in shit they have no control over or that are often BS anyway is beyond me.

[GennGreymane]

I think nothing off it since these politics mean nothing with the real agendas going on in the background that we know nothing off.

How people can be interested in shit they have no control over or that are often BS anyway is beyond me.

Why be interested in anything then? We have very little control over our own lives if you think about it.

[Meestercat]

If it means less of the Western World bowing and scraping to the Saudis I'm all for it.

[Independent voter]

Now we see if the Revolutionary Guard are in charge of Iran and their Mullahs, or the Iranian civilian government are in charge. History has shown that the Revolutionary Guard don't give a fuch what the civilian government says. It's like having two governments in one country.

[GennGreymane]

If it means less of the Western World bowing and scraping to the Saudis I'm all for it.

Its already started before the deal with the U.S stepping up production causing the huge drop

[ringpriest]

I see two reasonable likely outcomes (say, I think there's a 90%+ chance that it will be one of these two, with, sadly, roughly equal chances for either):

Peace - the deal holds. There's plenty of bickering; and some American factions (and Israeli ones, and the Saudi dictatorship, while its still around) keep making allegations, threats, and fearmongering, while the Iranians prop up Assad, Hezbollah, Shia Iraq, and squabble with the Saudis. There's more domestic dissent in Iran, possibly including reform on one on end or hardline Tianamen-style crackdowns on the other. But by and large everything holds together, Iran gets integrated into the global economy and is a financial battleground between blocs. Approximately twenty years down the road, it's an open secret that Iran is, like Japan, a turnkey nuclear power, and some of the crazier rhetoric had died down. By then, Iran itself is connected to the global economy at least as much as China is now, and no one really cares all that much. Iran might even eventually go the India-Pakistan route if nuclear tensions in the region escalate, but I hope that doesn't happen.

War - the US (as it all too often does) declines to keep its side of the agreement in good faith, regardless of the actions of the Iranians. Relations with Europe, China, and Russia all fray more along their separate tracks. Rhetortic from the pro-war wing of the US establishment heats up, lots of allegations are thrown around along with a great deal of domestic propaganda, some cause or provocation is found, and the US launches "limited" strikes while ISIS, the Saudi ruling clan, and the Israeli hardliners cheer - everyone else grumbles and denounces US actions, but no one does anything (although the Russians and Chinese quietly provide technical assistance to the Iranians on the air defense front). Terror attacks against US targets (mainly abroad) surge. The whole thing fails to work the way US planners claimed it would - the new Cold War get chillier, there's a global recession, wide-spread low-intensity warfare, a more Orwellian security-state in the US, a couple slow and drawn-out megadeaths, mostly (but not entirely) of civilians in the Middle East and other parts of the developing world. Iran's government gets more hardline, but there's little domestic dissent (except that fomented by the US.) Less than a decade down the line, the Iranians test a nuclear device underground in the Dasht-e Kavir desert. Another decade of diplomatic song and dance finds the Iranians with a status somewhere between North Korea and Pakistan.

[GennGreymane]

Now we see if the Revolutionary Guard are in charge of Iran and their Mullahs, or the Iranian civilian government are in charge. History has shown that the Revolutionary Guard don't give a fuch what the civilian government says. It's like having two governments in one country.

I can see a conflict or a potential disbandment within a decade, depends on how well the deal goes

[NYC17]

I think it will lead to Republicans whining about how Obama isn't a leader and how they'd be so much more leaderly leaders who'd lead us to the promise land.

And also bombings.

[Paranoid Android]

I think when you try and make deals with people like this, you'll often end up with the short end of the bargain.

Yes. On one side you have population of Iran, which for most part is considered very moderate. On the other hand you have the Iranian government, based on religious fundamentalism and war speak. Sound familiar?

[Daelak]

I think when you try and make deals with people like this, you'll often end up with the short end of the bargain.

What's the short end? Another Pakistan?

[Nachturnal]

Nothing will change.

[Meestercat]

The deal should've gone along with a NATO membership and the construction of NATO bases within Iran, but I'm not sure who would want to have that blood on their hands either...

*Putin's keyboard spattered with coffee*

[GennGreymane]

*Putin's keyboard spattered with coffee*

Did Russia work on the deal at all? If so, thats likely why

[Meestercat]

Did Russia work on the deal at all? If so, thats likely why

Ah, I don't know... It was more my imagining of the reaction to NATO bases in Iran.