Speculation: Post Release Legion Sub #s

[Axcel]

Let's talk about what you all believe and or disbelieve of the new expansion release, how you feel it will impact sub numbers, and if you believe it will be able to take us off this fast train speeding in a downward spiral to our inevitable end. From what I've seen, and I've watched the stream twice over, the expansion seems to have everything of what everyone wants (Fanservice), from Demon Hunters to Naga to Titans, it's packed with everything that we grew on from Burning Crusade to Wrath of the Lich King.

Nevertheless, we should always take everything with a grain of salt, or we'll overhype ourselves and run ourselves out the door.


Do you think that this expansion will release enough content / have the ability to stabilize sub numbers?

Do you think it will fail, and it will be the last expansion before F2P?

[Golden Yak]

That is a pretty logo.

[Mightyrahiem]

an expansion such like this, which will be jam packed with tons of content ...

I didn't actually see tons of content.
I saw a few more talent trees... one of them is on a sword.
A few zones that actually do look really nice, but so few of them?

[Axcel]

That is a pretty logo.

Ikr? I had to take it and edit it from the main site to actually have a "fit" for this page :>

[PolarityER]

It will probably stabilize sub numbers if it has as much content as it implies. Also, I'm not counting people who resub and quit. I expect after a quarter the numbers will fall to whatever they are right before the expansion.

If literally any of this gets cut, or the story isn't engaging or something.. I expect sub numbers to continue dropping.

[The Stormbringer]

My guess? Eight to nine million at launch. Nine if they really hype up the advertising again, eight if they don't. That'll peter out to 7-6 within a few months.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

That is a pretty logo.

It hurts my eyes, honestly.

As for subs, small bump that proceeds to freefall until F2P WoW.

[MoanaLisa]

No idea about subscriptions. Think they'll sell a ton of expansion downloads and boxes though if they can deliver what was shown today.

[Deleted]

I could see them hitting 10 mil again.

How long they'll keep em is another story.

[Master Guns]

My guess? Eight to nine million at launch. Nine if they really hype up the advertising again, eight if they don't. That'll peter out to 7-6 within a few months.

My thoughts.

[mentalass]

10, 9, 8 million are you guys mad? Lots of people that hated WoD have clearly stated they will be very cautious about this expansion. Subs will defiantly rise again, but no more than a million, and then will fall again with subs dropping to around 3 million withing a year. Take of the rose tinted glasses and see what is going on!

[Tiberria]

It's going to partially depend on how far sub numbers drop off during the remainder of WOD. Realistically, I can't see Legion being out before about April 2016 at the earliest. It took a full year from announcement to release for WOD, and WOD actually had a playable zone and dungeon available at Blizzcon when it was announced. Legion if anything seems to be further behind at the time of announcement than WOD was.

However, they did commit to beta before the end of this year, so a December beta with 4-7 months of alpha/beta duration like previous expansions had would suggest a release between April and July. Even if you assume April, we still have to get through Q3 and Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016. At the rate of subscriber decline we have seen over the last six months, it would be surprising if they don't drop below 4 million by the time Legion is released.

I would predict something like the following. The rate of subscriber decline should level off this quarter, since the start of the quarter was the 6.2 content release and some hype from the expansion announcement. However, with no new content until next spring-summer, the rate of decline will pick up again.

Q2 2015 - 5.6m
Q3 2015 - 5.1m
Q4 2015 - 4.4m
Q1 2016 - 3.5m

If we look at the WoD sub bounce, they started at 7.4m and jumped to 10m - a 2.6m jump. If my estimates are right and Legion has a similar jump, it would go up to 6.1m. However, I think there's a lot of reason to believe it won't jump as much as in WoD. WoD heavily targeted previous subscribers to get a huge bump. However, the poor overall reception of WoD probably turned off a lot of those players, and people will be less likely to jump back in again.

I would predict a more modest bump, and predict the sub count will be 5.1m the first quarter of Legion.