Intelligence chief: Iraq and Syria may not survive as states

[Sunseeker]

When one out of two is controlled by a psychopathic mass murdering crime family with nuclear weapons? Not terrible?

The other is a very successful, very modern, democratic nation with a strong economy and one of best pacific allies. So yes, that's a 50% success rate.

[Zarc]

Idd, btw splitting iraq in 3 country is a bad idea.l. Just look on how north and south Korea turned out.

Actually it is a good idea. Just look at how Czechoslovakia turned out. Just look at how Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland.... turned out after breaking away from the Soviet Union. You can't compare apples and oranges.

Also, the Kurds wants their own state. They have since World War I. Denying them that was a historic mistake and who are we to deny them, especially considering they are already de facto independent (the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq that is).

Seems a bit intellectually dishonest to insist on borders that the European colonial powers made up 100 years ago to remain intact at all cost.

[Independent voter]

Also, the Kurds wants their own state. They have since World War I. Denying them that was a historic mistake and who are we to deny them, especially considering they are already de facto independent (the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq that is).

Seems a bit intellectually dishonest to insist on borders that the European colonial powers made up 100 years ago to remain intact at all cost.

The colonial powers were afraid of a Kurdish state so they divided up the Kurds with borders to make them easier to control.

[Merkava]

Because you replied to me? We're only talking about 2 quotes back, can't be that hard to track.

Let's recap;

I expressed incredulity that Saudi Arabia would want to absorb a terrorist harboring state into their country, nor would they want to remove a buffer between them and Iran.

Your response was say that you don't care what Saudi Arabia wants.

Well, then. It appears all that's left to do is to send a letter to the Saudi's telling them to annex western Iraq and do it nicely because Smrund from MMO Champion doesn't wanna hear any complaining.

Yea, I should have assumed that you were expecting me to factor that into my reasoning.

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The other is a very successful, very modern, democratic nation with a strong economy and one of best pacific allies. So yes, that's a 50% success rate.

No, that's terrible. It's a 50% success rate, it's still not even close to a D-.

[Independent voter]

If the Saudis took Eastern Syria and Western Iraq, basically all the Sunnis, would it be so bad? I understand ISIS is there now, but say ISIS is destroyed over the next decade.

[Damajin]

Maybe, but not likely. Syria's civil war was only worsened by the war in Iraq, not started by it.

Syria's civil war is sponsored by the West, so it's all a moot point. Just another part of the destabilization game played by Washington and its coalition partners for fun and profit.

[Deleted]

Actually it is a good idea. Just look at how Czechoslovakia turned out. Just look at how Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland.... turned out after breaking away from the Soviet Union. You can't compare apples and oranges.

Also, the Kurds wants their own state. They have since World War I. Denying them that was a historic mistake and who are we to deny them, especially considering they are already de facto independent (the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq that is).

Seems a bit intellectually dishonest to insist on borders that the European colonial powers made up 100 years ago to remain intact at all cost.

Can't really compare the baltics with the Middle East. Sectarian wars are a thing and it has been shown that when there's a political void to fill in that area, sectarianism pops up In fashion.

Overall it could even be a good idea, but definitely not now.
Now we've got the Saudis that are completely out of control, Iran protecting their own interests, total void in a large area and rampaging civil war.
This isn't the most fertile ground for playing "paint" with the are once again.

Let's stabilise the area again by calming the Gulf states down, by working with local powers to end the civil war in Syria and Iraq and rebuild those countries.
Once we're past the stage of "total chaos" we can start talking about splitting whatever.
Now it would only be messy and bloody.

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There is more to just being "Sunni and Shiite".
Saudi Arabia must be contained, not helped expanding.

[Deleted]

I think that was clear for some time now.

There are so many tribes living there that don't mix well.

[Sky High]

It's not the government fault that some city's fell to isis. In Mosul many of people sided with isis since many of them were with saddam side when he was in power. Also iraqi army freed many sunnis city's but are they thankful? Nope they still side with isis.

it is thier fault when they did fuck all to try and keep the sunni tribes happy. the shia government isn't innocent in letting this mess happen.

Not to mention iran helped iraq more than saudi or any sunni country did and iran didn't give weapon to isis. ^^

exaclty why I said the current iraqi government is basically a puppet of iran.

[ABEEnr2]

Can't really compare the baltics with the Middle East. Sectarian wars are a thing and it has been shown that when there's a political void to fill in that area, sectarianism pops up In fashion.

Overall it could even be a good idea, but definitely not now.
Now we've got the Saudis that are completely out of control, Iran protecting their own interests, total void in a large area and rampaging civil war.
This isn't the most fertile ground for playing "paint" with the are once again.

Let's stabilise the area again by calming the Gulf states down, by working with local powers to end the civil war in Syria and Iraq and rebuild those countries.
Once we're past the stage of "total chaos" we can start talking about splitting whatever.
Now it would only be messy and bloody.

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There is more to just being "Sunni and Shiite".
Saudi Arabia must be contained, not helped expanding.

They have oil which means nobody can say anything. I mean just look at their human right and how girl's are treated.

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Actually it is a good idea. Just look at how Czechoslovakia turned out. Just look at how Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland.... turned out after breaking away from the Soviet Union. You can't compare apples and oranges.

Also, the Kurds wants their own state. They have since World War I. Denying them that was a historic mistake and who are we to deny them, especially considering they are already de facto independent (the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq that is).

Seems a bit intellectually dishonest to insist on borders that the European colonial powers made up 100 years ago to remain intact at all cost.

The turk won't allow it. They would do what ever it takes to not allow kurd to have a country. I think russia too didn't allow it don't remember where I read it.

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I frankly don't care what the Saudis want. They are a terrorist harboring state and are backing much of the unrest in Iraq, Yemen and Syria right now.

There is no "best option" here. There's just a lot of bad options:
A: Let them fight it out, risk allowing a violent, aggressive group with designs on more conquest controlling a real nation.
B: Split them up which essentially translates to "make them all sit in a corner till they can get along".
C: Smoosh them together until they get over it.
D: Let them pull a Crimea and merge with the neighboring nation of their choice.
E: Is anyone going to do anything about Turkey slaughtering Kurds again? Anyone?
F: Have we forgotten about the rebellion/coup/civil war going on in Yemen? Yemen anyone?

We can't do anything about Yemen not eve the UN. Most country's attacking them have alot of oil. So people will just turn a blind eye.

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it is thier fault when they did fuck all to try and keep the sunni tribes happy. the shia government isn't innocent in letting this mess happen.

exaclty why I said the current iraqi government is basically a puppet of iran.

I would rather side with Iran rather than Saudis. Even the sunni in Iraq hates the Saudis.

[Schmilblick]

As planned.

[ABEEnr2]

But aren't borders a social construct or what ever the general consensus in the immigration thread was? :>

Lets just remove all of their borders and have them live in one big country.

I don't think Saudis would like it. Since many in Syria is shia and that would mean there would be alot more shia than sunni.

[Independent voter]

I don't think Saudis would like it. Since many in Syria is shia and that would mean there would be alot more shia than sunni.

I thought Syria was like 80-90% Sunni? Assad, the president of Syria, his people are Shiite but there aren't many of them.

[Deleted]

It's likely going to change - this isn't necessarily a bad thing though. New nations come and go all the time.

[Grimbold21]

Turkey would have a field day with the Kurds...

[Teaon]

I thought Syria was like 80-90% Sunni? Assad, the president of Syria, his people are Shiite but there aren't many of them.

indeed Syria is like 80% sunni, Assad is alawite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alawites , which is a sect of shia, but shia's have history of declaring alawites "infidels"

[Vizardlorde]

Wouldnt mind if kurds formed kurdistan from the ruins of iraq.

[Deleted]

All their habitants are fleeing to the west. Hard to remain a state then.

[Kuntantee]

This is pretty much Israel and USA's foreign political paradigm in fruition. It has been stated, I think in early 80s, that in order for Israel to "survive", Middle Eastern countries need to be dissolved based on religious sects and ethnicities. A quick look at how things played out (first Iraq, then Syria), how USA, Israel and their European partners acted is pretty much a proof.

The sad thing is it's going to lead to more wars.

As for, new Kurdish militant/terrorist movements, their ideologies resemble Stalinist/Maoist type of authoritarian, so-called "socialist" regimes. Once they finally grab the Syrian or perhaps Turkish land and establish recognized, "legitimate" countries, it will be much more clear.

I highly suggest Western readers to take a closer look to what is happening and actual details of the whole issue rather than following mainstream media. Read scholarly works/critiques.

[looorg]

There are a lot of failed states thru out the middle east and Africa that are still around and behind held, helped or propped up. One might slice and dice the land all one wants but it doesn't magically turn them around. If the Kurds officially get their own land the Turks will probably go apeshit, i'd expect war soon after -- they might have their own little slice of Iraq as it is but that isn't the end of their dreams of a kurdish homeland. That stretches across a few other nations they want a bite out of them.