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  1. #1
    I am Murloc! Selastan's Avatar
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    Well, this happened.



    Me 5 minutes ago: "Damn, only three arena wins. Maybe that pack will happen to have a good card in it.

    *double eredar legendary*

    0.0
    "i must post this somewhere"
    Last edited by Selastan; 2015-09-12 at 12:09 AM.

  2. #2
    Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
    A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.

    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
    Congratulations.
     

  3. #3
    I am Murloc! Selastan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
    A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.

    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
    Congratulations.
    Thanks, still learning how to Imgur.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Aaaand fixed =)

  4. #4

  5. #5
    Deleted
    That is really lucky 2 legend and an epic. Congrats

  6. #6
    Herald of the Titans Racthoh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon.
    lol, i call bullshit. define not uncommon? rofl

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Racthoh View Post
    lol, i call bullshit. define not uncommon? rofl
    1 in 400.
    Considering the 30 million players, not really that uncommon at all.
    5 legendary packs should be fairly uncommon ( 1 in 3.2 million).

  8. #8
    Herald of the Titans Racthoh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by haxartus View Post
    1 in 400.
    so, very rare? lol congrats to the OP man not common at all.

  9. #9
    Over 9000! Gimlix's Avatar
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    I hope you screamed like this guy did.
    https://youtu.be/z2cFsiPknec?t=2m44s
    Quote Originally Posted by Shekora View Post
    Goddamn it, Gimlix, why do you keep making these threads?
    Quote Originally Posted by Sam the Wiser View Post
    Goddamn it, Gimlix, why do you keep making these threads?

  10. #10
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
    A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.

    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
    Congratulations.
    How can i belittle what this guy just got. I know i'l spout some bullshit about how getting 2 legendaries and an epic isnt that uncommon.

    R
    O
    F
    L

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by haxartus View Post
    1 in 400.
    Considering the 30 million players, not really that uncommon at all.
    5 legendary packs should be fairly uncommon ( 1 in 3.2 million).
    You're passively aggressively lowering the epic-ness of this.

    Stop.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Nupomaniac View Post
    How can i belittle what this guy just got. I know i'l spout some bullshit about how getting 2 legendaries and an epic isnt that uncommon.

    R
    O
    F
    L
    Exactly -.-

    Turds.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon
    First Law of Internet Forums: the first post in any thread will pooh-pooh the thread and call into question its reason for existing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  13. #13
    Over 9000! Kithelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
    A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.

    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
    Congratulations.
    When I was playing HS I never saw double legendaries...never even saw many legendaries at all...sure as hell never got any useful legendaries.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Mormolyce View Post
    First Law of Internet Forums: the first post in any thread will pooh-pooh the thread and call into question its reason for existing.
    Well, but it really isn't uncommon.
    If one in 400 people won the lottery, the lottery would be like $500 dollars.

  15. #15
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by haxartus View Post
    1 in 400.
    Considering the 30 million players, not really that uncommon at all.
    5 legendary packs should be fairly uncommon ( 1 in 3.2 million).
    A legendary is about a 1% chance, so 2 legendaries is about 1 in 1000.

    Quote Originally Posted by somewhere
    If they're 1% on their own it's (0.01 x 0.01 x 0.99 x 0.99 x 0.99)*10
    The 10 is from 5C2
    or a 0.097% chance
    If you don't believe the 1% chance on a Legendary, scroll back on Hearthpwn news, they did a test a while back.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Shedi View Post
    A legendary is about a 1% chance, so 2 legendaries is about 1 in 1000.
    Learn 5th grade math, please.
    0.01 probability per card means 0.05 probability per packs on average, which means p=0.0025 to get 2 legendaries, which is 1 in 400 packs.
    As for your calculations, first of all, (1/100)*(1/100) is (1/10 000), not (1/1000).
    Second, multiplying the card probability itself doesn't even make sense because you draw 4 more cards, not 1. If we want to be super correct, then it's 5% for the first legendary and 4% for the second or 0.002 per pack, which is 1 in 500.
    Note that this doesn't guarantee you a 2 legendary pack in 500 packs, it's actually a 63% chance of that happening in 500 packs, just as you have a 63% chance of getting a single legendary in 20 packs.
    Even more correct would be to assume that the card probability is not exactly 1% but more like 1.1% or close to 1.2% because of the card upgrade mechanism (1/5 chance of a promotion to the next rarity tier for each card.
    Last edited by haxartus; 2015-09-13 at 09:51 AM.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by tetrisGOAT View Post
    Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
    A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.

    That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
    Congratulations.
    Really? Not uncommon? LOL. Is this your designated "be a jerk and look terrible while doing it" day of the month? "Not uncommon" means "common", and this draw sure as hell isn't that.

    OP, congrats on the pack. I'm a newer player and even I know that isn't "not uncommon"....

    Quote Originally Posted by haxartus View Post
    Learn 5th grade math, please.
    0.01 probability per card means 0.05 probability per packs on average, which means p=0.0025 to get 2 legendaries, blahblahblah.............................................................................. .......................................................................................... .......................................................................................... .......................................................................................... .......................................................................................... .......................
    I honestly don't think anyone cares that much. Nice job editing your post ~45 minutes afterwards, after you realized you were initially incorrect.
    Last edited by Lillax; 2015-09-14 at 02:26 AM.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Lillax View Post
    I honestly don't think anyone cares that much.
    So, nobody cares about the truth ? If you feel that something is not common, it should be considered not common regardless of the data ? So, basically, the truth is irrelevant ?

  19. #19
    ITT: people acting as if 1 in 400 isn't rare.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shedi View Post
    A legendary is about a 1% chance, so 2 legendaries is about 1 in 1000.



    If you don't believe the 1% chance on a Legendary, scroll back on Hearthpwn news, they did a test a while back.
    Meta-study

    The following numbers combine data from several other studies on this page. Since the numbers provided by each study are relatively similar, this is mostly for the convenience of a single overview of the statistics, as well as improved accuracy in the rarer cases. The original studies can be found in later sections.

    Currently included studies: Steve Marinconz (June 2014), E. R. Kjellgren (August 2014), Amaz (February 2015), HearthSim (August 2015). This produces a total sample size of 27,868 card packs, describing 139,340 cards in total.
    Common Rare Epic Legendary
    Percentage of total 71.65% 22.84% 4.42% 1.10%
    Count per 27,868 packs 99,836 31,821 6,152 1,531
    Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 72.64% 20.21% 5.37%
    http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statistics

    It is about 1% for a legendary. 5% chance per pack.

    Same page:

    There's a 0.4% probability of getting 2 legendaries in a single pack
    So 1 in 200-300 or so?

    *EDIT*

    I think I misread your post.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tojara View Post
    Look Batman really isn't an accurate source by any means
    Quote Originally Posted by Hooked View Post
    It is a fact, not just something I made up.

  20. #20
    The 0.4% number was gathered from a 1000 pack sample so it is statistically insignificant.
    Edit:
    The math of this study is complete bullshit.
    The chances of getting a pack with any 5 legendary cards is one in a million
    Since the probability from a single pack is 6.33%, they are doing 0.063^5 to get the 5 legendary probability of 1 in a million. But this is completely wrong, the 6.33% number comes from rolling the 1.3% probability per card 5 times, so the correct 5 legendary probability would be 0.013^5.

    Let's actually do some real calculations involving real math.
    http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...5%2C+p%3D0.013

    Using the 1.3% value, which is still wrong, we get the following:


    If we use the 27 000 pack data, which is 1.1%

    Another study with 11359 packs got 1.19% for the legendary probability, which gives us:

    The huge differences in results tells us that the sample size is too small.
    Last edited by haxartus; 2015-09-14 at 03:32 AM.

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