Me 5 minutes ago: "Damn, only three arena wins. Maybe that pack will happen to have a good card in it.
*double eredar legendary*
0.0
"i must post this somewhere"
Me 5 minutes ago: "Damn, only three arena wins. Maybe that pack will happen to have a good card in it.
*double eredar legendary*
0.0
"i must post this somewhere"
Last edited by Selastan; 2015-09-12 at 12:09 AM.
Please use a smaller thumbnail, like http://i.imgur.com/Dq4yEHFl.png and then hyperlink the larger image instead.
A forum is not meant to be a side-scrolling adventure game.
That said, double legendary packs aren't too uncommon, but I don't think I've seen a double Eredari pack before.
Congratulations.
That is really lucky 2 legend and an epic. Congrats
I hope you screamed like this guy did.
https://youtu.be/z2cFsiPknec?t=2m44s
Learn 5th grade math, please.
0.01 probability per card means 0.05 probability per packs on average, which means p=0.0025 to get 2 legendaries, which is 1 in 400 packs.
As for your calculations, first of all, (1/100)*(1/100) is (1/10 000), not (1/1000).
Second, multiplying the card probability itself doesn't even make sense because you draw 4 more cards, not 1. If we want to be super correct, then it's 5% for the first legendary and 4% for the second or 0.002 per pack, which is 1 in 500.
Note that this doesn't guarantee you a 2 legendary pack in 500 packs, it's actually a 63% chance of that happening in 500 packs, just as you have a 63% chance of getting a single legendary in 20 packs.
Even more correct would be to assume that the card probability is not exactly 1% but more like 1.1% or close to 1.2% because of the card upgrade mechanism (1/5 chance of a promotion to the next rarity tier for each card.
Last edited by haxartus; 2015-09-13 at 09:51 AM.
Really? Not uncommon? LOL. Is this your designated "be a jerk and look terrible while doing it" day of the month? "Not uncommon" means "common", and this draw sure as hell isn't that.
OP, congrats on the pack. I'm a newer player and even I know that isn't "not uncommon"....
I honestly don't think anyone cares that much. Nice job editing your post ~45 minutes afterwards, after you realized you were initially incorrect.
Last edited by Lillax; 2015-09-14 at 02:26 AM.
ITT: people acting as if 1 in 400 isn't rare.
http://hearthstone.gamepedia.com/Card_pack_statisticsMeta-study
The following numbers combine data from several other studies on this page. Since the numbers provided by each study are relatively similar, this is mostly for the convenience of a single overview of the statistics, as well as improved accuracy in the rarer cases. The original studies can be found in later sections.
Currently included studies: Steve Marinconz (June 2014), E. R. Kjellgren (August 2014), Amaz (February 2015), HearthSim (August 2015). This produces a total sample size of 27,868 card packs, describing 139,340 cards in total.
Common Rare Epic Legendary
Percentage of total 71.65% 22.84% 4.42% 1.10%
Count per 27,868 packs 99,836 31,821 6,152 1,531
Probability of at least 1 per pack 99.81% 72.64% 20.21% 5.37%
It is about 1% for a legendary. 5% chance per pack.
Same page:
So 1 in 200-300 or so?There's a 0.4% probability of getting 2 legendaries in a single pack
*EDIT*
I think I misread your post.
The 0.4% number was gathered from a 1000 pack sample so it is statistically insignificant.
Edit:
The math of this study is complete bullshit.
Since the probability from a single pack is 6.33%, they are doing 0.063^5 to get the 5 legendary probability of 1 in a million. But this is completely wrong, the 6.33% number comes from rolling the 1.3% probability per card 5 times, so the correct 5 legendary probability would be 0.013^5.The chances of getting a pack with any 5 legendary cards is one in a million
Let's actually do some real calculations involving real math.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i...5%2C+p%3D0.013
Using the 1.3% value, which is still wrong, we get the following:
If we use the 27 000 pack data, which is 1.1%
Another study with 11359 packs got 1.19% for the legendary probability, which gives us:
The huge differences in results tells us that the sample size is too small.
Last edited by haxartus; 2015-09-14 at 03:32 AM.