Q4 sub #s will be HUGE!!

[hiramloram]

Why are we having this thread?

For the same reason we had threads entitled, "Is Mythic Raiding Now Casual-Accessible?", "I Miss The Adventure", and "WoW Doesn't Appeal to Casuals".

[Packing an i5]

the holiday season during November and December is a big game release window all blizzard has going for them is building up next year next expansion hype and the fact that more people will be forced to spend more time indoors so maybe that indoor fun time will be spent playing wow.

End of the day they are just biting the bullet all losses until legion releases are considered inevitable they have also said numerous times that they do not care about subscription numbers.

They have a loyal following that won't quit for years to come that keeps coming back or never left in the first place and as long as these people are kept happy farming the same raid tier for a year blizz is happy too knowing them and a million or so more people will buy the new expansion for 49.99 even if they only play for 3 months.

[ihyln]

"We lost 5 million subcribers but all those losses were in the east"

lmao. blame asia every time.

[schwarzkopf]

WoW has been on a steady decline of 1m subs per year since 2010, so this quarter anything above a 250k loss could be tied to WoD.

The expected 250k loss would be just the continuing leakage of subs.

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"We lost 5 million subcribers but all those losses were in the east"

They have only lost 1 million a year. You can't count increased subs as lost subs - that's sort of silly.

[Stonecloak]

WoW has been on a steady decline of 1m subs per year since 2010, so this quarter anything above a 250k loss could be tied to WoD.

The expected 250k loss would be just the continuing leakage of subs.

- - - Updated - - -



They have only lost 1 million a year. You can't count increased subs as lost subs - that's sort of silly.

Are you seriously trying to say that new players who subbed to the game don't count as subs?

[schwarzkopf]

Are you seriously trying to say that new players who subbed to the game don't count as subs?

No, that's not what I'm saying - which is why I didn't say it.

I'm saying that if I have $20, then you give me $50, then take $60 away ... I've lost $10 ... not $60.

Pretty picture to help:

[Stonecloak]

No, that's not what I'm saying - which is why I didn't say it.

I'm saying that if I have $20, then you give me $50, then take $60 away ... I've lost $10 ... not $60.

No, you gained 50, then lost 60. Your proposing these transactions happened all in the same moment.

[Maconi]

Most of the HB users who were banned went to other games during their ban (FFXIV, GW2, etc.). The majority of them can be seen saying they have no plan to return (IE they were only playing out of habit/addiction and Blizzard's forced "cold turkey" opened their eyes). Now whether that's true or not I guess we'll see when Q4 rolls around.

[Stonecloak]

No, that's not what I'm saying - which is why I didn't say it.

I'm saying that if I have $20, then you give me $50, then take $60 away ... I've lost $10 ... not $60.

Pretty picture to help:

That chart is doing the same thing too. You could possibly make that argument if the transactions took place simultaneously, but they gained subs, for a while just like the chart shows, then they lost them. Those subs all counted. To say otherwise is wrong.

[Alvito]

The Honorbuddy banned people will either sit things out for awhile out of spite/anger over their ban or they have already rerolled and have a sub being counted now that will stop so it is a wash. While 6.23 will probably go live in the next 2 months we don't know for sure that it will. I do expect them to push it out prior to just hit Q4 and Q1 just like they did with flight being added to WoD hitting Q3 and Q4.

[mvaliz]

No, that's not what I'm saying - which is why I didn't say it.

I'm saying that if I have $20, then you give me $50, then take $60 away ... I've lost $10 ... not $60.

Pretty picture to help:

It always amazes me the level of stupid that happens when people post these charts and then draw a massive line THROUGH the entire upswing ark of WoD - completely ignoring anything that happened in its life-cycle as if it was somehow unpreventable.

This chart is utter crap also as it cuts off Vanilla> most of wrath. If people made a chart back then using the same stupid logic of "trending/extrapolating", then their predictions of post-Wrath would've been in the 25+ million range by now!

Or... as was put best by this wonderful comic:

[Alvito]

WoW has been on a steady decline of 1m subs per year since 2010, so this quarter anything above a 250k loss could be tied to WoD.

The expected 250k loss would be just the continuing leakage of subs.

- - - Updated - - -



They have only lost 1 million a year. You can't count increased subs as lost subs - that's sort of silly.

You kinda have to. There are plenty of reasons to look at the gross and net losses and not just one or the other. Especially when you factor in the new subs may or may not have been the ones that stayed of left. It isn't like a million unique accounts were created or rejoined for WoD then those same accounts left. Sadly that is information we will never have and in almost all cases don't really need.

[Auxora]

That chart is doing the same thing too. You could possibly make that argument if the transactions took place simultaneously, but they gained subs, for a while just like the chart shows, then they lost them. Those subs all counted. To say otherwise is wrong.

Agree and the chart doesn't lie. Anyone who's taken even a Statistics 101 course could estimate pretty accurately the Q3 numbers. There definitely isn't any magic that's going to change it. People said the same that 6.1 would, or 6.2 would, or that Tanaan would, or that flying would somehow make numbers rocket up, and they clearly didn't. In fact there hasn't been a sub increase in the history of wow >5% outside of an expansion release quarter or the quarter preceding an expansion release.

Just about guaranteed the number will be right around 5M +/- 10%. Easy to project that from the graph. And it's a graph of data over 20 quarters, so not at all a small sample size. You can very confidently do trending with that data, especially with it being very consistent.

[Stonecloak]

Agree and the chart doesn't lie. Anyone who's taken even a Statistics 101 course could estimate pretty accurately the Q3 numbers. There definitely isn't any magic that's going to change it. People said the same that 6.1 would, or 6.2 would, or that Tanaan would, or that flying would somehow make numbers rocket up, and they clearly didn't. In fact there hasn't been a sub increase in the history of wow >5% outside of an expansion release quarter or the quarter preceding an expansion release.

Just about guaranteed the number will be right around 5M +/- 10%. Easy to project that from the graph. And it's a graph of data over 20 quarters, so not at all a small sample size. You can very confidently do trending with that data, especially with it being very consistent.

Yep, and since nobody knows when Legion is set to release. Those numbers will most likely continue dropping, especially with no new content.

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You kinda have to. There are plenty of reasons to look at the gross and net losses and not just one or the other. Especially when you factor in the new subs may or may not have been the ones that stayed of left. It isn't like a million unique accounts were created or rejoined for WoD then those same accounts left. Sadly that is information we will never have and in almost all cases don't really need.

The way I've seen things is that a lot of older players quit, and a lot of the newer ones stick around. They haven't really burned out yet at all.

[ihyln]

WoW has been on a steady decline of 1m subs per year since 2010, so this quarter anything above a 250k loss could be tied to WoD.

The expected 250k loss would be just the continuing leakage of subs.

- - - Updated - - -



They have only lost 1 million a year. You can't count increased subs as lost subs - that's sort of silly.

the 5million number I picked was arbitrary however the point I was making is that they always blame their losses on the East.

[High Marshal Sigismund]

For the same reason we had threads entitled, "Is Mythic Raiding Now Casual-Accessible?", "I Miss The Adventure", and "WoW Doesn't Appeal to Casuals".

I'm guessing this was some miserable attempt at insulting me, seems like it failed real bad though.

[robomatticus]

Since Q3 is gone and there will be another drop...
Maybe a 500k?

When 6.2.3 releases, Pre Orders from Legion and the
HUGE 6Month Ban from HB...
It will look like the game isn't bleeding subs.

Wonder if this will be a catalyst to get the game back on track?

The HB banwave was perma, not 6 months.

[Murderdoll]

Are you seriously trying to say that new players who subbed to the game don't count as subs?

They only count when it's painting a good picture.

Sub gain = fantastic work team.

Sub loss = cyclical and Asia.

Don't get involved with him by the way. You'll want to smash your head on the desk.

[Jinxz]

The HB banwave was perma, not 6 months.

No, it was ONLY 6 months.

[Deja Thoris]

No, that's not what I'm saying - which is why I didn't say it.

I'm saying that if I have $20, then you give me $50, then take $60 away ... I've lost $10 ... not $60.

Pretty picture to help:

People like you are the reason Casino's do so well.