TWO and a half years ago, Wendy Davis (pictured above) stood in pink running shoes for 11 hours on the floor of the Texas Senate to speak against a bill that would shutter most abortion clinics in her state. “The alleged reason for the bill is to enhance patient safety,” Ms Davis said early in her presentation, but it “treat[s] women as though they are not capable of making their own medical decisions.” The bill violates “women’s constitutional rights to control their bodies,” she argued.
On November 13th, the Supreme Court announced that it will decide whether House Bill 2—which withstood Ms Davis’s extraordinary filibuster and passed the Senate 17 days later—is indeed unconstitutional. Whole Woman’s Health v Cole, the justices’ first foray into the blazingly divisive issue since 2007, is the most consequential abortion case to arrive on their docket since 1992.
Texas contends that HB 2 “raise[s] the standard of care for all abortion patients” and “will improve the health and safety of women”. But the petitioner, a self-described “privately-owned feminist organisation, committed to providing holistic care for women”, says these are sham justifications. The legislature’s real aim, the clinic says, is to make it more difficult for Texas women to gain access to abortion. Up to three-quarters of the abortion clinics in Texas would be forced to close, the petitioner says, under the law’s requirements that clinics must have surgical facilities and that doctors performing abortions must have admitting privileges at a hospital not more than 30 miles away. The law will, Whole Woman’s Health says, “drastically reduce the number and geographic distribution of abortion facilities in Texas”.
In June, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the provisions in question, ruling that it is not the job of the judiciary to second-guess the legislature’s determination that a law promotes the public health. “[M]edical uncertainty underlying a statute is for resolution by legislatures, not the courts”, the appeals court concluded. And the Fifth Circuit ruled that whittling the number of abortion clinics in Texas from 42 to fewer than 10 does not pose an “undue burden” on the right to abortion. If El Paso loses its two abortion clinics, for example, women can always drive a mere 12 miles over the border to a clinic in Santa Teresa, New Mexico. Many already do, the court wrote.
The Supreme Court will ask whether the Fifth Circuit was correct to defer to the judgment of the Texas legislature and will review the meaning and application of the “undue burden” analysis coming from the most important post-Roe v Wade case the justices have issued: Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v Casey. Casey, decided in 1992, laid down a moderate principle defining when an abortion restriction is constitutionally permissible. It is no undue burden, the Court concluded, for states to require women to give “informed consent” before having an abortion. It is also fine for minors to be required to get parental consent. But it is unconstitutional to force women to notify their spouses before ending their pregnancies. Such a requirement, the Court ruled, goes too far: “We must not blind ourselves to the fact that the significant number of women who fear for their safety and the safety of their children are likely to be deterred from procuring an abortion”, the opinion reads. “It does not merely make abortions a little more difficult or expensive to obtain; for many women, it will impose a substantial obstacle”.
When the justices consider Whole Women’s Health, they will first ask whether the Court is the proper tribunal for a fine-grained factual analysis of the impact of HB 2 on Texans. (The district court undertook this analysis; the Fifth Circuit demurred.) If they see it as their role to dive into the weeds, the challenge becomes conceptual. Where is the line between making abortions “a little more difficult or expensive to obtain” (perfectly constitutional) and imposing a “substantial obstacle” (patently unconstitutional) on women who want them?
The Court’s answer will resonate well beyond the borders of the Lone Star state. For decades, states have been chipping away at the right to abortion first recognised 42 years ago in Roe v Wade. In the past four years alone, 231 new regulations have been enacted, including restrictions on abortions performed after a certain point in the pregnancy, waiting periods, ultrasound laws and limits on minors’ access to abortion. If Whole Woman’s Health comes out for the petitioners, the Court will affirm the continued relevance of the “undue burden” standard as a limit on how far states can go to reduce abortions. But if the Court finds no constitutional problem with the Texas law, Roe v Wade will be profoundly curtailed and the tide of abortion restrictions in America will likely continue to flow. Either way, the constitutional and political stakes are huge: the justices’ decision will arrive on the eve of the final trimester of the presidential campaign. The ruling will amplify concerns about the justices Barack Obama’s successor will appoint to a bench that, a year from now, will be occupied by three octogenarians.