BMAH Ridiculousness......

[judgementofantonidas]

Yes, as raiju said, sorry about late answer but didn't check the thread for a while, but I hope you understand that someone who kills a boss 1.000 times (so very hardcore) to get the mount will not limit himself to 1 character, if not 50 like raiju said, at least 20 is reasonable, they don't have to be 100, nor 90, nor 80, 75 is enough for that mount.

With 20 you bring it down to a realistic 1 year, with 50 you bring it down to 5 months or so.

your logic is off. blizzard rng is such that you could farm a boss with 100 characters and stand no higher chance than with one.

[Esploratore]

your logic is off. blizzard rng is such that you could farm a boss with 100 characters and stand no higher chance than with one.

What? Look at the case I farm 25 hcs of cata, the following: ds, fl, bwd, bot, for gold, on 14 chars or so each week, and look at the case I got, in a total of about 600 fl runs: 17 flametalons of alysrazors, 17 pureblood firehawks, then in about 1.150 ds runs of which 800+ hc I got 9 experiments 12-b, 15 blazing drakes, 11 lifebinder's handmaidens and these are only the ones I got, because a couple of times they dropped when I was 2-manning with a friend, so obviously let them get it since I already had it, so 13 lifebinder's.

And don't tell me I'm lucky, what I'm saying is simply: if you do such a large amount of kills, you WILL get it (yes, there's a 0,001% chance or don't know exactly and I don't even want to calculate it chance that you will NOT get a mount in so many kills, but I'm being realistic here, you can also win the lottery in 1 try or be struck by lightning if you want to go look at the 0,0001).

So yes, 100 or 1 chars farming a week make A TON of difference!

When in my previous post I talked about kara mount taking a year with 20 chars or 5 months with 50, it was the time to get mount if you're super unlucky and takes you 1.000 runs, I challenge you to find a player who didn't get the mount in 1.000 runs, let's take my personal case now: it took me 50 runs, so that's 2,5 weeks with 20 chars, almost 1 year with 1 char and 1 week with 50 chars.

[judgementofantonidas]

What? Look at the case I farm 25 hcs of cata, the following: ds, fl, bwd, bot, for gold, on 14 chars or so each week, and look at the case I got, in a total of about 600 fl runs: 17 flametalons of alysrazors, 17 pureblood firehawks, then in about 1.150 ds runs of which 800+ hc I got 9 experiments 12-b, 15 blazing drakes, 11 lifebinder's handmaidens and these are only the ones I got, because a couple of times they dropped when I was 2-manning with a friend, so obviously let them get it since I already had it, so 13 lifebinder's.

And don't tell me I'm lucky, what I'm saying is simply: if you do such a large amount of kills, you WILL get it (yes, there's a 0,001% chance or don't know exactly and I don't even want to calculate it chance that you will NOT get a mount in so many kills, but I'm being realistic here, you can also win the lottery in 1 try or be struck by lightning if you want to go look at the 0,0001).

So yes, 100 or 1 chars farming a week make A TON of difference!

When in my previous post I talked about kara mount taking a year with 20 chars or 5 months with 50, it was the time to get mount if you're super unlucky and takes you 1.000 runs, I challenge you to find a player who didn't get the mount in 1.000 runs, let's take my personal case now: it took me 50 runs, so that's 2,5 weeks with 20 chars, almost 1 year with 1 char and 1 week with 50 chars.

this is just a measure of your luck. I am still farming karazhan for the mount with 15 toons. I have played since vanilla. no mount. same with invincible.

[rda]

this is just a measure of your luck. I am still farming karazhan for the mount with 15 toons. I have played since vanilla. no mount. same with invincible.

ROFL

No, not going to say anything, not even the word "math", it's pointless. It's just a measure of luck, totally.

[Fabinas]

this is just a measure of your luck. I am still farming karazhan for the mount with 15 toons. I have played since vanilla. no mount. same with invincible.

Lol comparing your comment with your signature....

[thebdc]

Kills		Probability to have gotten mount
1		1.0000000000%
2		1.9900000000%
3		2.9701000000%
4		3.9403990000%
5		4.9009950100%
6		5.8519850599%
7		6.7934652093%
8		7.7255305572%
9		8.6482752516%
10		9.5617924991%
20		18.2093062403%
30		26.0299626612%
40		33.1028241430%
50		39.4993932862%
60		45.2843357609%
70		50.5161340400%
80		55.2476786236%
90		59.5268027322%
100		63.3967658727%
200		86.6020325142%
300		95.0959105929%
400		98.2049446725%
500		99.3429516958%
600		99.7594990709%
700		99.9119688818%
800		99.9677777637%
900		99.9882056194%
1000		99.9956828753%

[rda]

^^ Nah.

Kills		Probability to have gotten mount
1		it's luck
2		it's luck
3		it's luck
...
300		it's luck

And since the probability value in each row is the same...

(c) judgementofantonidas and other great thinkers

[Alienshroom]

I just saw somebody goldcap a Drake of the North Wind....

[Deleted]

I just saw somebody goldcap a Drake of the North Wind....

Why not? Farming dungeons is nothing exactly something I would call fun. If I would be collecting mounts I would buy it as well instead of farming that

[judgementofantonidas]

Kills		Probability to have gotten mount
1		1.0000000000%
2		1.9900000000%
3		2.9701000000%
4		3.9403990000%
5		4.9009950100%
6		5.8519850599%
7		6.7934652093%
8		7.7255305572%
9		8.6482752516%
10		9.5617924991%
20		18.2093062403%
30		26.0299626612%
40		33.1028241430%
50		39.4993932862%
60		45.2843357609%
70		50.5161340400%
80		55.2476786236%
90		59.5268027322%
100		63.3967658727%
200		86.6020325142%
300		95.0959105929%
400		98.2049446725%
500		99.3429516958%
600		99.7594990709%
700		99.9119688818%
800		99.9677777637%
900		99.9882056194%
1000		99.9956828753%

that is not how blizzard probability works.

every time you go in is a fresh .oo1 chance.

[Deleted]

No, but someone killing a boss for two years has a bigger chance to have seen it than someone doing it for two weeks.

thats not how math + droprates work. the one doing it 2 weeks could have seen it drop twice while the dude doing it for one year never saw it drop.

PS: can we now get back to topic? tia

[SoLoR1]

People are such a morons when it comes to math...

[Deleted]

What was discussed is the probability of the mount dropping after 300 runs, not after 1 run.

Given, as example value: Probability on mount dropping on each boss kill: Mount (M) = 1% = 0.01.

Thus probability of mount *not* dropping on any single kill, NoMount (NM) = 1.00 - P = 0.99.

Probability of mount *not* dropping after two kills is NM * NM = 0.99 * 0.99 = 0.9801 = 98.01%.

Probability of mount *not* dropping after X kills is NM^X, so probability of *not* seeing the mount drop after 300 kills is 0.99^300 = 0.0490 = 4.90%.

Thus, probability of seeing the mount dropping at least once in 300 kills is 1 - 0.0490 = 0.9510 = 95.1%.

If 20 players each kill the boss 300 times, then statistically one of them still won't have the mount.

[judgementofantonidas]

Correct me if I´m wrong but that table does not contradict that statement you just made. It doesn´t mean that you have to kill the boss 1000 times in order to get the drop. See how at the 1000th kill the % isnt 100. What that table means is that by the time you have rolled your 0.001 chance dice 1000 times the likelyhood of getting the drop is 99.9956...%.

Probability can be a bit tricky to understand. I know I get confused often.

seems all the people claiming that you get anywhere near a 99+ % chance just because you do it 1000 times need to take some of the statistic classes I did for my management degree. in real life yes. the more times you do something with a set chance of succeeded the more likely you are to succeed. not the way blizzard does it though. using blizzard math trial one you have .01 chance. trial 1000 you have .01 chance. there is nothing cumulative about it. you are improving your chances just because you are doing in multiple times. but at no time will you come near to 99% or the ability to forcast within months when a rare item will drop.

[Deleted]

Why not? Farming dungeons is nothing exactly something I would call fun. If I would be collecting mounts I would buy it as well instead of farming that

Looting a mount from a boss is so much better than looting it from the mailbox.

[Deleted]

seems all the people claiming that you get anywhere near a 99+ % chance just because you do it 1000 times need to take some of the statistic classes I did for my management degree. in real life yes. the more times you do something with a set chance of succeeded the more likely you are to succeed. not the way blizzard does it though. using blizzard math trial one you have .01 chance. trial 1000 you have .01 chance. there is nothing cumulative about it. you are improving your chances just because you are doing in multiple times. but at no time will you come near to 99% or the ability to forcast within months when a rare item will drop.

Did you pay for that statistics class? Ask for a refund.

[Halicia]

Did you pay for that statistics class? Ask for a refund.

they generally teach the fallacy of monte carlo odds in stats classes.

it doesn't matter how many times you've failed in the past, it doesn't affect the next time.

[Koochulu]

That doesn't really make sense from a probability point of view. With 300 kills and a 1% drop chance, the probability you would have gotten the mount by then is slightly over 95%. So the probabilty that it will drop soon is pretty damn high.
I'd say either farm until it drops or bid on it the first chance you get (and farm until you get that chance, of course).

That's not how statistics work. Every time you go, it's always a 1% chance. Always. There's no bad luck, or good luck. Your odds don't go up every time you go.

[Deleted]

they generally teach the fallacy of monte carlo odds in stats classes.

it doesn't matter how many times you've failed in the past, it doesn't affect the next time.

That is true but that is not what I quoted. Yes the probability on attempt #1 and attempt #1001 is the same. The probability of attempt #1-1000 cumulative is different and that should be familiar to someone with a degree level education which includes statistic classes.

[Deleted]

Looting a mount from a boss is so much better than looting it from the mailbox.

That is an opinion. Maybe you like farming mounts from dungeons, I don't mind some, but Stonecore or Vortex Pinnacle are not something I enjoy. In fact I dislike doing those a lot. So if it is worth 1milion gold to me, that is more than fine to buy it from the bmah. Just because you think it is not worth the gold does not make it so for very one else too.