Can Dark Conduits target same player twice?

[Deleted]

On Mythic Archimonde can 2 of the 3 conduits target the same player or it will always select a different player for each of the 3?

[Dracodraco]

All 3 can target the same person. Don't stand still.

[Xanthan]

All 3 can target the same person. Don't stand still.

No, they can't; that'd be insane. As long as there's other valid targets, they won't target the same person twice.

[Deleted]

No, they can't; that'd be insane. As long as there's other valid targets, they won't target the same person twice.

I have had all three spawn on me, Draco is right.

[Eon Drache]

No, they can't; that'd be insane. As long as there's other valid targets, they won't target the same person twice.

The only rule that really seems to be in effect for conduits is they won't target melee or tanks. Otherwise it seems pretty random as we've had the same person targeted more than once in a row.

[Wilderness]

I have had all three spawn on me, Draco is right.

If you don't move at all from the first one then future ones will not spawn on you. If you move a little bit then you become a valid target again.

[Bjorsen]

The only rule that really seems to be in effect for conduits is they won't target melee or tanks. Otherwise it seems pretty random as we've had the same person targeted more than once in a row.

They target melee, ret Paladin reporting in.

[Nuckels]

They target melee, ret Paladin reporting in.

They only target melee out of range of the boss so.

[Deleted]

I died once because i had Shadow debuff from deathcaller 25% increased shadow and took 2 conduits hits on the first ones, taking 600k dmg .

Still i wasn't the target of the first a played just walking by and i got hit . Well seems no one knows for sure so better always move out of it .

[Ampere]

If you don't move at all from the first one then future ones will not spawn on you. If you move a little bit then you become a valid target again.

I don't think this is right. The whole danger of conduits is having two spawn on top of each other, so if they couldn't spawn if you didn't move wouldn't the strategy be to stand still in open space when the mechanic starts?

Pretty sure the only rule is tanks and melee won't get them.

[Dracodraco]

No, they can't; that'd be insane. As long as there's other valid targets, they won't target the same person twice.

Explain to me how it's insane. If it wasn't the case there'd literally not be any meaning to the mechanic. It'd just be "spread out and stand still".

[Kakera]

If you don't move at all from the first one then future ones will not spawn on you. If you move a little bit then you become a valid target again.

Can confirm 100% that this is not how it works. It can and will target any ranged player regardless of whether or not that player moves from the initial Conduit. It has happened to me.

[Aethilus]

Yes, they can and will target the same player twice. Got our 4th M Arch yesterday, only had about 10 wipes to conduits during all progression but experienced near deaths from double targeting on the same player many times.

[Wilderness]

I don't think this is right. The whole danger of conduits is having two spawn on top of each other, so if they couldn't spawn if you didn't move wouldn't the strategy be to stand still in open space when the mechanic starts?

Pretty sure the only rule is tanks and melee won't get them.

I don't know, that's the exact strategy we used for our progression and to my knowledge we never had one spawn on one person twice.

[LilSaihah]

I'm not sure, I don't play ranged. I'm fairly sure they don't target the same person twice in a row in a single volley, though.

Explain to me how it's insane. If it wasn't the case there'd literally not be any meaning to the mechanic. It'd just be "spread out and stand still".

You'd still have to move for other mechanics, you'd have to move off your starting conduit by the next conduit. The room still fills with conduits and there's still the hypothetical wipe situation where the room is completely filled with conduits.

[CausalXXLinkXx]

No, they can't; that'd be insane. As long as there's other valid targets, they won't target the same person twice.

They absolutely can. It's really bad rng if it happens but it can happen.

[Deleted]

They absolutely can. It's really bad rng if it happens but it can happen.

Assuming 2 tanks, 4 melee, and 0 Mistweavers, it's roughly a 0.005 probability - a probability so low that a simple "spread out and stand still" strat should only cause an explosion once every 200 pair-spawns of a Dark Conduit, or once every 33 P3 pulls assuming a guild currently progressing on the fight averages two Dark Conduit casts before wiping.

Statistics, of course, is a fickle mistress, and it's still advisable to perform the minimal, trivial amount of movement required to ensure that it never happens when this is entirely within your own control.

[KaPe]

E: My math fails. Still, isn't it (assuming 14 targets):

~0.005 someone gets Conduit #1 and #2.
~0.005 someone gets Conduit #2 and #3.
And you can still wipe to #1 and #3, which is another 0.005.

At that point, it's not 1 in 200, but almost triple that, which is actually quite risky.

E2: Wait, that's per player. Doh...

[Dracodraco]

You'd still have to move for other mechanics, you'd have to move off your starting conduit by the next conduit. The room still fills with conduits and there's still the hypothetical wipe situation where the room is completely filled with conduits.

The entire mechanic could be very easily countered with the kormrok "Go to your arrows-position" addon though. The only time where that is reasonably hard is the second volley as it's during an engulfing, but even then you can fill the entire back of the room with the addon on the first volley, and the front (requiring minimal movement, and ceartainly much less than we do now to spread out) for the second.

It's fairly simple though;
Conduits target ranged.
It'll target any ranged. It doesn't give a fuck if you just had one target you.

E: My math fails. Still, isn't it (assuming 14 targets):

~0.005 someone gets Conduit #1 and #2.
~0.005 someone gets Conduit #2 and #3.
And you can still wipe to #1 and #3, which is another 0.005.

At that point, it's not 1 in 200, but almost triple that, which is actually quite risky.

As for the math, PraisetheSun hits it spot on; there's a 14*14 = 196 to 1 chance that two conduits will target the same player twice in a spawn cycle. With two conduit spawns, that means six pairs of 2x conduits - 1+2, 1+3, and 2+3. That means that 196/6 = 32.7 pulls for it to happen. Nothing wrong with it from what I can tell. He already accounted for the things you pointed out.

This means that a "stand your ground"-based strategy would probably work nowadays; Assuming you're only getting one wave of 4x infernals in the last phase (that you should have the ring up for no less) as most guilds are, the amount of P3 pulls you'll get before killing the boss will probably not be over 30. It's dumb to do it because it can so easily be avoided, but if your raiders are retarded with their movement, it might very well be a viable option.
I've not been above doing shit like that myself - the weakaura we had assigning marks etc to out P3 marked debuffs didn't account for multiple marks in one group, which ment when all 4x targets happened to be from the same group, someone would inevitably die off because one group suddenly only had 2x soakers. The probability of that happening was so low, though, that we never bothered to come up with a strategy to prevent it, and just kept on hammering the boss. Brain is too tired to work out the odds right now (been pulling an all nighter), but logic tells me that it's probably not much worse better than just standing still for the conduits tbh.

[Overdispersion]

The math is 1/14, not (1/14)^2. Probability of one conduit is always 100%, now you're asking for the probability of conduit happening on the same player which is 1/14.