Wheeeeeeeelp, lesson learned.

[Deleted]

Am I the only one that doesn't see anything weird with the ~95% shipyard missions but I do see a relatively lower chance on the ~95% regular-table missions? The argument of "wishful thinking and confirmation bias" can't work on me because I don't see any issue on the shipyard. At least it can't work that easily.

[atredies]

I had my mythic hellfire cache fail 4 times in a row with over 90% (used orgre completion stones until I ran out of them) as usual after I did succeed i disenchanted the crappy early boss vers loot it dropped.

[IxilaFA]

Am I the only one that doesn't see anything weird with the ~95% shipyard missions but I do see a relatively lower chance on the ~95% regular-table missions? The argument of "wishful thinking and confirmation bias" can't work on me because I don't see any issue on the shipyard. At least it can't work that easily.

You can't make a claim like "confirmation bias doesn't work on me" because confirmation bias is a fundamental flaw in human processing. As an example, I'm absolutely convinced that on my way to work each day, that lights hate me. Seems like I'm always running into red lights. But I'm also well aware of confirmation bias. Though it just doesn't seem possible that I would be so unlucky as to always have red lights. The fundamental flaw here is that my brain is not physically remembering all the mundane green lights I just drove through. It's impossible to say "I have a good recollection of these occurences" because your brain simply doesn't process mundane occurences that fall within the norm.

The only way you can disprove confirmation bias in this situation and prove there is something wonky going on is to actually keep meticulous records of your mission results and the mission results of an adequate sample number of people. Do that and come away with less than 90% and you will convince me something isn't right here.

For what it's worth, I still think the theory that it considers each ship/follower as a separate success chance and since most ship missions only require two ships and most garrison missions use three followers, that could be the deviation you are seeing.

- - - Updated - - -

I feel that the % is fine for everything else other than gold (like rare mounts/pets, other resources, armor sets, etc) it's just with gold for me that if it has 80% or lower, it pretty much fails most of the time. Maybe I'm just the world's unluckiest person when it comes to gold missions. I don't think it's confirmation bias because it's not like I need the gold more than anything else, I have about a million gold and an extra 75 (or 4k) from a mission won't really do anything for me. It's just that I noticed it fails more than the others. I'd start writing it down and cataloging it, but I'm way too lazy and don't care enough about it to take initiative.

Confirmation bias isn't just for when you have a vested interest in the result, though that's often where it can manifest. To continue with my red light example, even though I'm never late for work and leave early enough that no amount of red lights can impact whether I get there on time or not, my brain still doesn't adequately process how many greens versus how many reds I am getting.

In your case, you started noticing a trend and now confirmation bias is actively kicking in. Everytime you fail a gold mission, it reaffirms your belief. Everytime you succeed a gold mission it doesn't process because, as you mentioned, you don't care about gold. One way I try to combat my own confirmation biases is to try and actively notice whenever something falls within the norm. For the next week, everytime you succeed a 90 or 80 percent gold mission, take notice and think about it for a moment. By the end of the week I promise you will recognize there is nothing "fishy" going on.

[Deleted]

For what it's worth, I still think the theory that it considers each ship/follower as a separate success chance and since most ship missions only require two ships and most garrison missions use three followers, that could be the deviation you are seeing.

That's a pretty good idea.

[Bathory]

Bummer, I know that feel. Lost Blingatrons vault, a potential 4k with a 98%. Furioussssssss


But! I've won so many more than I've lost.

[warlock_alt]

That's a pretty good idea.

No, that would be a very noticeable and testable difference. People are just bad at statistics and have very weak intuition on probabilistic events. Which is why you fall back to the math of it.

[IxilaFA]

No, that would be a very noticeable and testable difference. People are just bad at statistics and have very weak intuition on probabilistic events. Which is why you fall back to the math of it.

Nobody, so far as I know, has tested it. And for a long time that was the prevailing theory of how the missions worked. Unless someone actually did the math to see how it plays out, that very well could be how it still works out.

That says nothing about the percentage of succeeding 'rare' missions at a higher % than non-rare missions, however, so you're correct there.

[munkeyinorbit]

I have also noticed this, if i really want something from a mission like rare missions / gold.
They fail ALOT more then normal missions, pretty stupid rng.
So basicly if i want something now i never send below 100%.

I am taking all of your RNGness. I never fail on anything that I want. I go in with 70% and I win it. Everytime. I only fail on stuff that I am just clearing out of the quadrant that i didnt really care for anyway. But gold? Always win it.

[warlock_alt]

If that were the case, a 3 follower mission with a 70% success rate, would only have a 34% chance of succeeding. A very drastic and noticeable difference.

Why on earth would they calculate 2 different 'success rates', one to display on the mission send screen, and then a second, different calculation, for the result? Makes little to no sense from any perspective.

[Tock20]

I haven't failed a blingtron secret vault if above 75%, correlation does not equal causation

[endersblade]

I always love when I pass three missions on the list with under 40% chance to complete, and then fail one at 90+. I really hate RNGesus.

[Deleted]

No, that would be a very noticeable and testable difference.

You are probably out of context since I was not talking about that theory about extreme results about rare missions only. I was talking about small or medium-sized differences of the type: instead of 90% total -> 90% per follower (which lowers the total). That would be VERY hard to prove intuitively because it would be usually a difference between ~10% failure and ~25% failure so while it might create a "sense" of something being fishy to the player, it can not be blatantly proven with only a very small sample.

[Bodom]

With 36 active characters I do missions on daily I have never noticed anything strange with the percentages. Even though I haven't tracked them (like some people on these forums have, where they came to the conclusion that they were more or less correct) 90%+ missions do very rarely fail. A Blingtron mission at 4k with a 90% success chance is more gold on average than a 3k mission at 100%. Shit happens and people are quick to assume something fishy is up when they are the ones being unlucky.

[Deleted]

^If someone tracked them I'd like to see the study.

[Serissa]

the more likely it will fail when not 100%, which means a 90% one can be actually 70% eg.

Nope, math doesn't work this way.

[Hyve]

You're focused on the success chance, instead look at the fail chance.

Am I willing to send this mission off with a 9% chance to fail?

[Deleted]

Nope, math doesn't work this way.

Don't insult people if you don't understand the math yourself. If the counter chance is per individual follower or individual enemy in the mission, then on a labelled 90% chance on say 3 followers or enemies, it would not be 10% to fail, but 1 - 0.9^3 = 27% to fail. If someone shows a statistical study that shows this isn't true fine, otherwise and it could be right.

[Zelendria]

It's pretty simple really. Don't send out <100% chance on missions you actually care about the result of.
Complaining about RNG you specifically introduced into the mission is a bit .... well....

Someone did do a study on it. Not it won't appease everybody given that it would 5 bajillion missions, but even so the success chance was almost always very close to the stated success chance. Even the ones that were slightly out by a couple of percent can easily be attributed to RNG over a small number of missions. Around 200 missions at varying chances of success IIRC.
Can't find the thread, but it is in here somewhere.

My own anecdotal experience. I've done quite a few shipyard cache missions that has a cursed crew counter, so is impossible to 100% it, and have so far NEVER failed one.

[Serissa]

Don't insult people if you don't understand the math yourself. If the counter chance is per individual follower or individual enemy in the mission, then on a labelled 90% chance on say 3 followers or enemies, it would not be 10% to fail, but 1 - 0.9^3 = 27% to fail. If someone shows a statistical study that shows this isn't true fine, otherwise and it could be right.

But mission chance doesn't show individual chance per follower. It shows TOTAL chance for mission.

R=R1*R2*R3

If R=90% there's no f#cking way any of Rx can be 70%. Learn the math yourself.

[Fayolynn]

I have also noticed this, if i really want something from a mission like rare missions / gold.
They fail ALOT more then normal missions, pretty stupid rng.
So basicly if i want something now i never send below 100%.

Would it surprise you to know they fail at the same rate and you just don't pay attention when an unimportant mission fails?