Warcraft will definitely be a success. My box office predictions.

[Deleted]

1. Warcraft is one of the biggest game franchises in the history of video games.
2. There's a fantasy drought on the big screen, and people LOVE fantasy.
3. Nerd-stuff is all the rage.
4. Believe it or not, but the mainstream audience loves CGI, big wars and fantastical environments.
5. Travis Fimmel (Anduin Lothar) can probably pull a decent audience.
6. Blockbuster season.
7. The trailer has 33m views, and I can't find a single film with more than 20m trailer views that made less than $400m. It sounds dumb but there definitely is a trailer-views-to-box-office-success-pattern post 2012. If not, find me enough evidence to refute this pattrn.


And the most important point.

8. John fucking Carter made $284,139,100 WITHOUT the help of China. John Carter, let that sink in. Warcraft is much bigger and will make between $350-500m in that very same audience excluding China. Now, it may not come as a surprise but Warcraft is HUGE in China and Daniel Wu (Gul'Dan) is even bigger. If Furious 7 made $400m in China alone, we can expect a Chinese box office figure of anywhere between $300-450m dollars, especially now that Wanda Group bought Legendary and are pushing Warcraft onto the Chinese market.

One example isn't enough, I guess. Prince of Persia, another video game adaptation, broke $300m without China's help, and yet again, Warcraft is bigger than either of those films.

See the numbers? The minimum we can expect is $600m and if the film turns out to be surprisingly good I'd say we're looking at $800m. A more realistic expectation is $700m dollars worldwide. My guess is it won't do well domestically but will prevail in the Chinese and European box office.

Now, feel free to refute my predictions, but you'll only prove my point if you spout shit like "It'll be the biggest flop of the year" without telling me exactly why.

I'm confident in these numbers.

[akris15]

It's getting good "buzz" but not at the levels of guardians of the Galaxy. Is it going to be number one at the box office? Probably for that weekend no doubt. Will it hang around it in the top 10? For a bit but will fall off because it's in blockbuster season? Will it suck? Who knows? Will it print money? Probably not at Jurassic park or marvel levels but it will make a ton of money. Personally my tin hat theory is that they will release legion the Tuesday after Warcraft opens (which based on beta testing it looks like it's on pace for a late May/early June release anyways).

[Deleted]

It doesn't need the same amount of buzz as GotG to break $700m seeing as how it's much bigger in China and will compensate through the Chinese box office market.

[Azerox]

That is some good news. I'll see my 1% arriving soon.

[kejer]

It doesn't need the same amount of buzz as GotG to break $700m seeing as how it's much bigger in China and will compensate through the Chinese box office market.

Hollywood studio only takes 1/4 of the box office share in China. Worldwide box office number is one thing, to be profitable (production cost + marketing cost) is another.

[Deleted]

So it may be, but I'm just predicting its box office numbers, whether or not their share is large enough in the Chinese market for it to be successful is irrelevant. Besides, with a budget as small as $100m, it would only need to bring in a measly $250m to be successful.

[unbound]

The OP isn't really being edgy here. Any movie with a decent budget and lots of action (no matter how schlocky) will make hundreds of millions.

Battleship (2012 - 34% rotten tomatoes) made $300 million worldwide.
Clash of the Titans (2010 - 28% rotten tomatoes) made nearly $500 million worldwide.

So as long as Warcraft has a lot of action (and of course it will) it will almost certainly make a minimum of $600 million worldwide with today's ticket prices.

No other reason matters. It will have nothing to do with the popularity of WoW. It will have nothing to do with a "fantasy drought". It will have nothing to do with "nerd-stuff being all the rage". It will have everything to do with lots of schlocky CGI action with a decently sized budget.

[kejer]

The OP isn't really being edgy here. Any movie with a decent budget and lots of action (no matter how schlocky) will make hundreds of millions.

Battleship (2012 - 34% rotten tomatoes) made $300 million worldwide.
Clash of the Titans (2010 - 28% rotten tomatoes) made nearly $500 million worldwide.

So as long as Warcraft has a lot of action (and of course it will) it will almost certainly make a minimum of $600 million worldwide with today's ticket prices.

No other reason matters. It will have nothing to do with the popularity of WoW. It will have nothing to do with a "fantasy drought". It will have nothing to do with "nerd-stuff being all the rage". It will have everything to do with lots of schlocky CGI action with a decently sized budget.

The real question should be whether the final number of warcraft will warrant a sequel thus lead to a franchise. That's legendary/Bliz's main concern.
Pacific rim fits you description perfectly. But since it bombed in US and even with much better BO in China, its sequel is very unlikely to happen. 400M worldwide total btw.

[akris15]

I thought pacific rim got a greenlight for a sequel?

[quras]

1. Warcraft is one of the biggest game franchises in the history of video games.

It's still also a video game to movie and that has historically been bad. Warcraft being popular to fans wont be enough.

2. There's a fantasy drought on the big screen, and people LOVE fantasy.

and people could just as easily be burned out on fantasy. We've been hit with it pretty good for the past number of years. Fantasy doesn't mean butts will be put in seats. Especially ones that have no interest in another game to movie attempt nor are clueless to warcraft.

3. Nerd-stuff is all the rage.

No not really. Even Universal Pictures is worried about this movie. Hell, even people at comic Con said, " However, a number of people express worry that the…let’s say, exceptionally nerdy…tone of the footage could be a challenge for a broad audience." Nerdy may not go over well.

4. Believe it or not, but the mainstream audience loves CGI, big wars and fantastical environments.

Good CGI needs to be there but that alone has never carried a movie to 700 million.

5. Travis Fimmel (Anduin Lothar) can probably pull a decent audience.

A forgettable actor whos best thing done was a TV show and he's good but that doesn't in any way translate into a decent pull for a movie.

6. Blockbuster season.

You do put weaker movies into stronger release slots in hopes to boost sales. It's a gamble that might pay off. Flip a coin.

7. The trailer has 33m views, and I can't find a single film with more than 20m trailer views that made less than $400m. It sounds dumb but there definitely is a trailer-views-to-box-office-success-pattern post 2012. If not, find me enough evidence to refute this pattrn.

Then you were not looking hard enough if you couldn't find a single film that meets that criteria. Trailer views don't always mean enough money to offset costs/marketing. Does it bode well, maybe but there are movies with big views that don't do great.

Sex Tape - 29.5 Million Views - $126,069,509
Dumb and Dumber To - 44 Million Views - $141,208,010
Dracula Untold - 30 Million Views - $216,821,942

This one really screws the numbers but is a success do to lower cost to make (40Mil + Marketing)
Fifty Shades of Grey - 93 Million Views - $570,978,470

Now, feel free to refute my predictions, but you'll only prove my point if you spout shit like "It'll be the biggest flop of the year" without telling me exactly why.

I'm confident in these numbers.

Don't worry I'll refute a bit of what you said. I expect it to make back it's production and marketing costs. It might pull in 400-500 million and thats with a bulk coming from China and a couple other international markets. Ultimately being considered to risky to do a part 2 and it's profit margin not high enough over it's costs to warrant a squeal. 700 million? I don't see it having that broad of an appeal.

[Archon14]

Battleship (2012 - 34% rotten tomatoes) made $300 million worldwide.
Clash of the Titans (2010 - 28% rotten tomatoes) made nearly $500 million worldwide.

Those numbers are really making me optimistic when it comes to the potential success of the movie.

[kejer]

I thought pacific rim got a greenlight for a sequel?

"Off the table" is the official quote from legendary.
Del toro insisted it's still happening on tweeter.
The only hope it has now is a Chinese company just bought legendary. Fingers crossed.

[akris15]

I am personally thinking in the 650mil range

[Snackpack]

It would have done exponentially better 6-8 years ago

[Pony Soldier]

Well it ain't going to be no Lord of the Rings kind of success but from what I seen so far it's looking pretty good. The thing is too majority of the people going to see this are the people who are familiar with the franchise. So because of that it might not make a whole lot of money. Maybe just enough to be somewhat of a success. That's my prediction.

[akris15]

"Off the table" is the official quote from legendary.
Del toro insisted it's still happening on tweeter.
The only hope it has now is a Chinese company just bought legendary. Fingers crossed.

Yeah if that's the case then it's going to be made eventually. That's one of those movies were I just turn my brain off and let the inner 10 year old in me be happy.

[McNeil]

Look at how much Transformers 4 earned. Can we really call that a good movie?

[Breccia]

(Google search)

Holy shit, this movie only cost $100M to make? It'll pass that no problem.

[Calfredd]

If Warcraft is a box office success, it'll be one of a few (if any) video game-based movies that actually didn't suck.

[melodramocracy]

It will definitely be a profitable venture. Whether others consider it a 'success' or not will be a different matter, and is less relevant anyhow.

I'm actually curious to see how it affects stock prices.