The Syria War Will Not Be a Quagmire -- Because Putin and Assad Are Winning

[Kellhound]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/wo...?smid=re-share

His plan is to stop the American backed terrorists, flood europe with refugees and empower the Kurds. All of this will hurt Europe, USA and Turkey and likely cause major rifts and infighting.


The Turks and French are already openly accusing Obama of being useless.

His plan is to secure the Russian base, no more no less.

[Cybran]

His plan is to secure the Russian base, no more no less.

http://anfenglish.com/news/rojava-ku...pens-in-moscow

Putin personally invited the Kurds from Rojava to open a consulate in Moscow. He will supply them with money and weapons to kill Turks. Assad and the Kurds don't like eachother. Assad has killed thousands of them in the last 10 years, but Putin has his own plans for them.

The objective in Syria moved past "just a base". Now it's a tool to presure Turkey and Europe. Every brown migrant will make the anti-EU parties stronger and they all look up to Putin.

He has this by the balls.

[Daten-shi]

http://anfenglish.com/news/rojava-ku...pens-in-moscow

Putin personally invited the Kurds from Rojava to open a consulate in Moscow. He will supply them with money and weapons to kill Turks. Assad and the Kurds don't like eachother. Assad has killed thousands of them in the last 10 years, but Putin has his own plans for them.

The objective in Syria moved past "just a base". Now it's a tool to presure Turkey and Europe. Every brown migrant will make the anti-EU parties stronger and they all look up to Putin.

He has this by the balls.

Yes, I guess Erdogan shouldn't have shot down that Russian bomber. Putin may be didn't take revenge immediately which would be a silly act but is making long-term plans to teach Erdogan a lesson. Looks like Putin is doing it the American way.

[Crispin]

http://anfenglish.com/news/rojava-ku...pens-in-moscow

Putin personally invited the Kurds from Rojava to open a consulate in Moscow. He will supply them with money and weapons to kill Turks. Assad and the Kurds don't like eachother. Assad has killed thousands of them in the last 10 years, but Putin has his own plans for them.

The objective in Syria moved past "just a base". Now it's a tool to presure Turkey and Europe. Every brown migrant will make the anti-EU parties stronger and they all look up to Putin.

He has this by the balls.

Except Putin doesnt seem to be a mastermind tbh, he took Russia from a glimpse of a bright future back to going down the drain.

Altho I'm sure you like to belive so, Putin cannot mind control or master events happening, there are several examples of this, besides we also had Iraq "by the balls", it's far from over.

[Deleted]

Yes, I guess Erdogan shouldn't have shot down that Russian bomber. Putin may be didn't take revenge immediately which would be a silly act but is making long-term plans to teach Erdogan a lesson. Looks like Putin is doing it the American way.

He will just arm the fuck out of the kurds. How to piss Turkey off 101.

[Deleted]

That's several square kilometers.

very important square kilometers.
Most of Syria is A, Desert, B, In the hands of ISIS.
if Assad retakes Aleppo the Rebels are pretty much done.

[Deleted]

very important square kilometers.
Most of Syria is A, Desert, B, In the hands of ISIS.
if Assad retakes Aleppo the Rebels are pretty much done.

Very much depends on Putin's scope, which we don't know. Some say he just wants to secure Assad's "principality" - that is the coast + Damascus and areas neighbouring Lebanon, while others say he has greater plans.

For all we know, he might lead the Syrians to Aleppo and call it a day, which is far from rebels being done. Further commitment will be costly for Russia in many ways, though it may seem like an OK investment.

I think he wouldn't risk a premature exit, and will stay for at least several more years, but will not make many more advances beyond Aleppo, as it would be very hard to do so anyway, considering the current pace.

As some here pointed out, he wants to exert refugee leverage upon Europe, which will arguably be strongest in a further-prolonged conflict.

[Deleted]

His plan is to secure the Russian base, no more no less.

No that is his goal.
His plan to achieve said goal, is to put sufficiently enough hardware into play that the palatable western rebels are dead, dying, or fleeing.
negotiating with the Kurds is quite acceptable, screwing the EU over with refugees a nice bonus, and driving a wedge into Nato and turkey an added bonus (that the US manages to do all on its own mind you, he is at best just playing into that divide)

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Very much depends on Putin's scope, which we don't know. Some say he just wants to secure Assad's "principality" - that is the coast + Damascus and areas neighbouring Lebanon, while others say he has greater plans.

For all we know, he might lead the Syrians to Aleppo and call it a day, which is far from rebels being done. Further commitment will be costly for Russia in many ways, though it may seem like an OK investment.
I think he wouldn't risk a premature exit, and will stay for at least several more years, but will not make many more advances beyond Aleppo.

As some here pointed out, he wants to exert refugee leverage upon Europe, which will arguably be strongest in a further-prolonged conflict.

Look at a map, if Assad holds Alepo he cuts of the border access with Turkey, all he has to do then is make nice with the Kurds, and then, Who cares? the only remaining players will be unpalatable terrorists.

[Cybran]

Except Putin doesnt seem to be a mastermind tbh

Says who? The american State Department? They predicted that Syria would be a quagmire, yet in 4 months the Russian bombs and Iranian forces have turned the thing around.


You should start thinking for yourself instead parroting Obama and Kerry's bullshit.

[Ausr]

Says who? The american State Department? They predicted that Syria would be a quagmire, yet in 4 months the Russian bombs and Iranian forces have turned the thing around.


You should start thinking for yourself instead parroting Obama and Kerry's bullshit.

It's still a mess, don't try to play it as it's magically settled. Course, you could take your own advice and not listen to anime for world views. /shrug

[Crispin]

Says who? The american State Department? They predicted that Syria would be a quagmire, yet in 4 months the Russian bombs and Iranian forces have turned the thing around.


You should start thinking for yourself instead parroting Obama and Kerry's bullshit.

Not parroting anything just stating the obvious tbh, Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine and Syria have done what good for Russia other than boosting some outdated "wrrah we're MEN!" emotion? The guy thinks we're still in the 60's.

You do however remind me of this guy



Who was equally a complete fool.

[Skulltaker]

It's still a mess, don't try to play it as it's magically settled. Course, you could take your own advice and not listen to anime for world views. /shrug

You shouldn't go demeaning others points if you cannot disprove them anymore. /shrug

[Crispin]

You shouldn't go demeaning others points if you cannot disprove them anymore. /shrug

I'm sure this qualifies as "still a mess"

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/...y_1854652.html

[Ausr]

You shouldn't go demeaning others points if you cannot disprove them anymore. /shrug

Oh right, I'll look up at the pristine living conditions, the non-warfare farmlands with bountiful harvests and all the refugees that fled from the shittiness of it coming back to work and make their homeland better now that Russia/Syria has made it better.

Also, the whole 'base his world view on anime' is an actual true statement. Ask Gabriel. He has it screenshotted and bookmarked for laughs.

[Deleted]

No that is his goal.
His plan to achieve said goal, is to put sufficiently enough hardware into play that the palatable western rebels are dead, dying, or fleeing.
negotiating with the Kurds is quite acceptable, screwing the EU over with refugees a nice bonus, and driving a wedge into Nato and turkey an added bonus (that the US manages to do all on its own mind you, he is at best just playing into that divide)

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Look at a map, if Assad holds Alepo he cuts of the border access with Turkey, all he has to do then is make nice with the Kurds, and then, Who cares? the only remaining players will be unpalatable terrorists.

If you are arguing that once Alepo is conquered Putin can call off his jets, I don't see it this way. Putin very much cares what happens after Aleppo falls and he makes nice with the Kurds, because the second Russian aviation is not in Syria, Turkey is very likely to move in, same for anyone fighting Assad who is now holed up.

Judging by the pace of conquest in Syria, and the peace process in Vienna, and more recently - Geneva, the war is unlikely to be over soon. And I don't think Putin wants the war to drag on. As history tells, any expedition is taxing both on finances and public opinion.

Hypothetically, even if the expecition had cost nothing and all parties agree to peace, and authority under Assad is restored, all that Putin would've achieved is drive up animosity between the EU/US and Turkey, at the cost of significantly driving up animosity everywhere (except Tehran) towards Moscow. (And do note that the whole refugee crisis is solvable with enough commitment from Europe, at no cost to relations with Turkey - hence, it is likely to happen; and by the way - I don't think anyone in the EU/US is afraid of giving Erdogan the finger - the man has very few friends, and will eventually play ball)

Basically, the way I see it is that Putin had no other choise but to commit to a losing side. Either Assad falls, or the Kremlin commits significant resources to little gain (keeping Tartuz? sticking it to the West?). Very much like the Eastern Ukraine situation - he has to commit enough resources for his proxies not to fall or risk political embarassment (which he has never experienced; and which is the essence of any "strongman" scenario).

[Skulltaker]

I'm sure this qualifies as "still a mess"

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/...y_1854652.html

IT wasn't the still a mess part I was commenting on, of course it's still a mess.

(...)
Also, the whole 'base his world view on anime' is an actual true statement. Ask Gabriel. He has it screenshotted and bookmarked for laughs.

Really? Sorry, with the general tone in these forums it just sounded like someone who ran out of arguments. In this case I apologize.

[Cybran]

Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine and Syria have done what good for Russia other than boosting some outdated "wrrah we're MEN!" emotion?

They have shown the emerging economies and parts of Europe that the White house doesn't have free reign on world affairs. After the disaster that was Iraq and Afghanistan people were losing hope.

Now they know where to turn when the Americans start a regime change.

it just sounded like someone who ran out of arguments

He has never had a formulated argument in his life. He is just baiting around and trying to get people infracted.

[Ausr]

They have shown the emerging economies and parts of Europe that the White house doesn't have free reign on world affairs. After the disaster that was Iraq and Afghanistan people were losing hope.

Now they know where to turn when the Americans start a regime change.



He has never had a formulated argument in his life. He is just baiting around and trying to get people infracted.

No, you just tend to get mad when I can easily debunk your laughable arguments with 1 or 2 sentences.

Really? Sorry, with the general tone in these forums it just sounded like someone who ran out of arguments. In this case I apologize.

No worries. You tend to know the type of people and their world views after a while and can easily call them out on being hypocrites and such. Don't even ask me about baseball bats and certain members of a religion. He'll go nuts.

[Crispin]

They have shown the emerging economies and parts of Europe that the White house doesn't have free reign on world affairs. After the disaster that was Iraq and Afghanistan people were losing hope.

Now they know where to turn when the Americans start a regime change.



He has never had a formulated argument in his life. He is just baiting around and trying to get people infracted.

Ah yes the oppressed people of the West, I feel so sorry for us, Donbass is such a great example for peace and prosperity. /facepalm

One thing is seeing the good and bad in both the West and rest of the world, but its ignorants like you who see's the world in black and white, that is the basis for a good laugh, oh Putin our good saviour lol.

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Really? Sorry, with the general tone in these forums it just sounded like someone who ran out of arguments. In this case I apologize.

There are a handful of posters who seem to live in an alternate reality, where North Korea is good, everything the west does it evil and everything everyone else does is good, the gulag system wasnt that bad and yadda yadda.

[zmp]

You do however remind me of this guy

George "War of Terror" Bush <3 The American hero