The Syria War Will Not Be a Quagmire -- Because Putin and Assad Are Winning

[caervek]

Assad was bombing his own ppl with airplains

Isn't it common to drop bombs from "airplains"? What should he use? Zeppelins?...battleships tied to helium balloons? :P

[Skroe]

Really? Time magazine has a different opinion.

Actually it has the exact same opinion. Read my post again. "Some senior leadership of ISIS? Sure maybe. We're talking a few dozen guys out of an Iraqi Army that was hundreds of thousands strong." That is exactly what I said, and also what the article says.

Leadership. Okay. But also lots that wasn't in the Iraqi army.

Nobody is saying that disbanding the army wasn't a mistake. It certainly one. But a direct line from disbanding to ISIS leadership is simply not what happened.

And why you should stop meddling is because it will bite you in the ass. Big time.

No. It won't. Not enough to make us stop.

"blowback" is non-intellectual nonsense that people of certain political persuations to to use as a bludgeon to get their way over controversial foreign policy. Let's take the great "blowback" of them all as that belief's proponents would have it. 9/11. So we had 9/11. As a consequence of what? A bloody and successful Asymetric war in Afghanistan in the 1980s that inflicted a stinging wound on the USSR at a critical time. And you know what? The USSR fell.

This is the US will always meddle because the payoff, if our plans work, is almost always big, and consequences, are almost always manageable.

"Keeping to ourselves". Ha! What are we? Luxembourg?

[Skulltaker]

Isn't it common to drop bombs from "airplains"? What should he use? Zeppelins?...battleships tied to helium balloons? :P

Maybe he implied that they used planes for bombs.

[Skroe]

In contrast to the USA, we actually believe in humans rights and personal freedom. But the real problem aren't the immigrants, it's our governments that are sucking up to USA and Germany and letting them get away with the shit they're doing.

So you have beliefs, but don't want to deal with the consequences of practicing those beliefs. Gotcha

Also what "shit" are we doing?

It'd be all fine if those hundreds of thousands would all go to UK, Sweden or Germany and stay there. We couldn't care less. But the problem is that as soon as Germany gets over their retarded historic guilt, they're going to let all of them be stuck on our side of the border. The numbers look a lot different if you have one million immigrants stuck in a country of two (or eight) million people.

The put them on trucks and drop them across the next country's border. Or take them to the Turkish / Syrian border and drop them off.

Ever since the US "got tough" with Latin American illegal immigration a few years back, it's basically zero'd because those who would attempt now have learned that (1) they probably won't succeed and (2) they'll end back up where they started anyway.

If your country of two or eight million, I don't know, sent them home yourselves, you'd eventually establish a reputation as a refugee no-mans-land.

That means sacrificing a self-image, but hey, those things are mostly worthless anyway.

[Deleted]

Yeah, they were. Aerial strikes, weapons, training and intelligence provided, UN resolutions and all that jazz.

'You're not involved unless you drop a nuke, eh?'

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Wikileaks says about as far back as 2006.

USA is also the blame for your big ass pimple on your ass.
In your case everything is the blame of the USA so i would say have a happy life hating the US.

[Skulltaker]

Actually it has the exact same opinion. Read my post again. "Some senior leadership of ISIS? Sure maybe. We're talking a few dozen guys out of an Iraqi Army that was hundreds of thousands strong." That is exactly what I said, and also what the article says.

Leadership. Okay. But also lots that wasn't in the Iraqi army.

Nobody is saying that disbanding the army wasn't a mistake. It certainly one. But a direct line from disbanding to ISIS leadership is simply not what happened.

How is 25 of 40 top leaders not a direct line? How is disbanding a welltrained and equipped army, which led to a, as the article calls it, vacuum not directly strenghtening ISIS? The old Iraqui army could (of course not saying it would have) opposed ISIS and fought them way mroe effective then the quickly established followup army that, as you correctly said, got it's ass handed to them?

Last paragraph is as straight forward as you can get on that topic.

Over the past year, ISIS has seized hundreds of U.S.-built Iraqi military vehicles given to Baghdad by the U.S. government. But history shows that the U.S., beyond providing ISIS with war machines, also made a fateful decision that gave ISIS some of its best commanders and fighters.

USA is also the blame for your big ass pimple on your ass.
In your case everything is the blame of the USA so i would say have a happy life hating the US.

Calling you a troll would be an insult to trolls. God damn, I know you try hard to make a point, but for your own sake, you should pull out of this.

, it's our governments that are sucking up to USA and Germany and letting them get away with the shit they're doing.

Wow, don't put us in the same basket. We'll be rid of Merkel soon enough.

[caervek]

When did the US get involved?

You're serious? O.o

Okay I'll bite, when the rebels kicked off in Syria they would have been crushed fairly easily by the army however they were supplied by the US and friends and also given political support in the media, this meant Assad was unable to fight them properly because if he used the same tactics as Gaddafi he would suffer the same fate. The west even tried to do this anyway, pushing for a "no fly zone" like they established in Libya (which essentially involved them acting as the rebels air force and winning the war by themselves while the rebels drove on behind planting flags, they even got Gaddafi himself with an airstrike).

Luckily the British public were still disgusted by what Team America did to Libya and so after it was made clear to our politicians that nobody who voted for this was ever getting re-elected the use of air power against Assad was strongly voted down in parliament. With the UK out Obama then had to reconsider his own plans.

Sadly the damage had been done, forced to fight the "rebels" with his hands tied Assad was unable to defeat them before ISIS arrived on the scene, and to make matters worse the west then used that as an excuse to start bombing (only ISIS), which then prompted Russia to start bombing (all terrorists) and that pretty much brings us to today.

[Skulltaker]

Sadly the damage had been done, forced to fight the "rebels" with his hands tied Assad was unable to defeat them before ISIS arrived on the scene, and to make matters worse the west then used that as an excuse to start bombing (only ISIS), which then prompted Russia to start bombing (all terrorists) and that pretty much brings us to today.

And Russia is even doing a better job.

[Deleted]

And Russia is even doing a better job.

If Russia says, all refugees are welcome to come to Russia then i would agree.
But till this point i only see airstrikes.

Assange is being imprisoned without charges

You do know that there is a charge against him for rape right?
And he is not imprisoned its his free will to keep hiding to avoid the legial system we all have to follow in the west.

[Deleted]

lol pretty much all they've done is cut all of the supply lines so Turkey can stop funding/supplying them. That's really the best way to stop the war. Now just wait for their funds to dry up.

Why the fuck are NATO putting up with all of Turkeys crap here and pretending it's not happening? We're still making out Russia is the bad guy when it's common knowledge to everyone that Turkey is directly funding ISIS. Even their attempts to "help" in Syria are just VERY thinly veiled excuses to kill more Kurds.

Those big military corporations have to make money somehow. If there are no wars, make one up.

[Skroe]

How is 25 of 40 top leaders not a direct line? How is disbanding a welltrained and equipped army, which led to a, as the article calls it, vacuum not directly strenghtening ISIS? The old Iraqui army could (of course not saying it would have) opposed ISIS and fought them way mroe effective then the quickly established followup army that, as you correctly said, got it's ass handed to them?

This paragraph is dubious for a lot of reasons.

First, the "well trained and equipped army" was nothing of the sort. The well euipped and trained componeents of Saddam's armed forces were the Iraqi Republican Guard (75,000 troops) and Special Republican Guard (12,000 troops), the Saddam Regime Loyalsts drawn mostly from Sunni territory and Tikrit, were not considered part of the "Iraqi Army". As a consequence of the Invasion of Iraq they were militarily defeated and largely destroyed. They made up the bulk of the 11,000 Iraqi dead during the invasion. Their continued existence would have been unacceptable. It would be comparable to the Allies allowing the Waffen SS to carry on after the Surrender of Germany so long as they did peacekeeping. They were not disbanded. They were mostly destroyed.

The Iraqi Army proper was a much larger force, numbering 375,000 and drew recruits from all segements of, Sunni, Shiite and Kurd's still under Saddam's control. They were poorly trained, poorly equipped and mostly a conscript force. Compared to the Iraqi Republican Guard and the Special Republican Guard, they functioned largely as auxillaries, having neither the training nor experience of the Saddam-loyalist forces. During the Invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US Military specifically engaged from the air (and the ground) the Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard, and specifically avoided wherever possible engaging the Iraqi Army, which would was even less of a match for the US Army than the IRG and SRG, with the the annhilation of it being almost pointless. They were simply not the military power of Saddam's regime, the IRG and SRG were.

This is where the bullshit of the "direct line" comes into play. The Iraqi Army had Shiites. It had Sunnis. It had Kurds. But it as a national service force, that was not battle hardened, and it's dissolution was of conscripts of the same type that would re-enter the Iraqi Armed Forces when they were later reconstituted.

The "leaders of ISIS" from the Iraqi army, in terms of specific individuals, Iraqis who served in the Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard, not the Iraqi Army proper. These organizations were never going to be preserved and were not disbanded by the order that disbanded the Iraqi Army, as a consequence of being de facto disbanded when Saddam's regime was over thrown.

But then again, the key distinction between the Iraqi Republican Guard and the Iraqi Army is too much for some folks. Because all iraqi troops in 2003 with guns were the same, amirite? Never mind the fact that most countries in the muslim world have this exact same arrangement - a massive "Army" drawn from all sections of society, and a smaller elite "Guard" that is the real military power and only drawn from the regime's tribal strongholds.

Over the past year, ISIS has seized hundreds of U.S.-built Iraqi military vehicles given to Baghdad by the U.S. government. But history shows that the U.S., beyond providing ISIS with war machines, also made a fateful decision that gave ISIS some of its best commanders and fighters.

Which according to reports, they don't use, because of lack of training, lack of maintenance and lack of gas.

US armor for example, run on JP-8, jet fuel, because US armor utilizes gas turbine engines and not diesel internal combustion engines. Where are they going to get JP-8?

This (also complexity, training, etc) is one reason why ISIS is more often seen with diesel-guzzling Russian/Soviet T-72s from Iraq and Syrian stocks.

ISIS siezing Humvees and MRAPs, both of which they are rarely seen driving (Humvee's get 4 miles per gallon off-road and 8 on the highway) in favor of pick-up trucks.

[Deleted]

After that he'd be handed over to the USA for a dose of 'legal justice', like Manning, or killed.

That is speculation.
Sweden is the one that will make that call at that point not the US.

[Kuntantee]

The Kurds, though Sunni, have proven to be able to live with the Shia peacefully.

Live with Shia peacefully? You don't know the kind oppression the Kurds were subjected to in Syria by Baas Regime. It was way worse than Turkey. They were not even citizens. Yes, they were not even given Syrian citizenship.

[Skroe]

1) We don't have the manpower and $ to deal with it. I think nuking USA would be a fine, if unrealistic, way of dealing with it. With a lot of 'collateral' damage.

Okay, so you're nuts too. Got it.

12) The shit you're doing is implying the wars USA create throughout the world.

You know whats funny about this? The leading argument about ISIS/Iraq/Syria is that it is a consequence of the US leaving its big footprint in the middle east too early, creating a power vacuum.

No US, and you'd be under Putin's thrall before you know it. Because big country's prey on small countries. And when Vladmir Putin, like every Russian leader before him, sees your little European country, whatever it is. he doesn't see the people. he doesn't see the history. He sees a potential expansion of Russia's front yard.

3) We're in the EU and we're in good standings with most of our neighbours. We actually consider them allies, unlike the USA, so we can't just dump shit on them. Well, Croatia did in fact do that to Slovenia, but fuck them, we're not going to fall that low.

That's really funny considering how the US bends over backwards for the defense of Europe, and has the 50s.

Also there's nowhere to send them to. Greece? What good would that do? Turkey? Don't make me laugh, our 'crucial regional NATO ally' is pissing all over the EU.

Your crucial NATO ally is doing what it absolutely should be doing, which is using leverage it has to strengthen it's negotiating position. You folks just don't like playing hardball.

Your mistake is to intemperate allies as rolling over. It's not. It's common interests. That doesn't replace nation-minded hard-nosed bargaining. Especially as, as Europeans love to remind themselves and everybody else, Federal Europe isn't a thing yet.

That other thread about Erdogan's blackmail is ridiculous. It's a fucking joke people are surprised that Turkey, which has wanted in the EU for years, with US support mind you, would actually dare use it's new found leverage.

I love Europe and I love Europeans. But seriously, some times you people need to start living in the world we actually exist in, rather than the one you want to live in. And you can start by throwing those Syrian refugees in trucks and dumping them across the border. Somewhere. Or put them on boats and send them back.

Or keep them. Because 740 million person Europe isn't upset by a few hundred thousand refugees.

Or wall in Europe.

[Kuntantee]

Oh no, that work out for the EU - but Russia and Assad - They wouldn't care about that.

Precisely why Sunnis should be able to return to Syria and this should be supported by Turkey and EU.

[Shibito]

Yea gassing his own people doesnt matter people seem desperate to kiss up to Russia and the putin microphone SHalcker

[Deleted]

Nice internet fiction.
The Iraqi Army was dissolved in 2003.
AL Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS's predecessor, was virtually destroyed by 2010.

ISIS as we know it is brand new. It's not staffed by 55 year old ex-Iraqi soldiers. It's made up of people in their twenties and early thirties who were between 7 and 17 years of age when the Iraqi army was disbanded.

This one is not true - you can trace strategy and tactics right back to the Old Iraqi army.
some leadership remains, and more importantly, Who taught all of those young boys shit?

Some senior leadership of ISIS? Sure maybe. We're talking a few dozen guys out of an Iraqi Army that was hundreds of thousands strong.
ISIS is 30,000 strong.

yeah, with a solid officer core -

The vast majority of the disbanded Iraqi Army moved on with their lives a decade ago. And you know what they are today? Middle Aged Men. Not brutal millennial fighters.

No, they are in the Sunni tribal militias.
But more importantly, You had a functioning army there - it was perfectly fine just the way it was.

[Skroe]

Precisely why Sunnis should be able to return to Syria and this should be supported by Turkey and EU.

No. Turkey in the EU should put them on trucks, dump them across the border and abandon them to their fates.

Put aside Russian meddling, Iranian meddling and US meddling in Syria, and it's pretty clear that Syrians, the people that actually lived there, managed to destroy their country mostly on all their own. The many pictures posted of burned out cities. By-in-large, that wasn't the US, which is operating far from those scenes. It's not Russia (until recently), who just got there a few months ago.

It was the Syrians. They made their bed. They deserve to lay in it. Even during the Iraq War, Iraqis didn't do to their country remotely what the Syrians have managed to do to theirs. Who knows what rebuilding Syria will cost. It'll certainly dwarf Iraq War costs in monetary value and manpower commitment though.

If the UN wants to peace-keep that with troops from India or something, they can have a blast... and will probably have many blasts, if you catch my drift.

Europe and Turkey should use that money to build a tall wall and build coastal patrols to keep the problem out of European lands. And it should use whatever else to focus on its bread and butter security concern: continental defense from Russia.

[arandomuser]

Seems like both the left and right agree both bernie and cruz are against regime change, but the establishment, marco rubio and hillary clinton keep saying get assad out, even though just like saddam assad is a stabilizer. The establishment see the world as a chess game based around natural resources and geopolitical power.

[Deleted]

European union has a population of 742.5 million.

Tell me again a few hundred thousand refuges is the end times.

Well A, they are not being dispersed across the Union, B, Every one of those people are automatically entitled to the full support of the state, C, and they are virtually entirely unemployable.
Its like all of the Hispanics didn't work, but instead were fed and clothed, housed and nurtured.
and its millions, not hundreds of thousands.

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Nobody is saying that disbanding the army wasn't a mistake. It certainly one. But a direct line from disbanding to ISIS leadership is simply not what happened.

No it was the Sunni insurgency, then ISIS.