Best year? 2010 - 2015

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

From 2010 - 2015? Imo, 2011. Hbu? 2011 was an important and fun year to me when I look back upon it. I'll never forget it.

[GennGreymane]

2012 had one hell of a party

[Raetary]

2014 and 2010

[enragedgorilla]

2012 , was a very good year for me .

[Deleted]

2015 was hands down the best of those years for me. Without a doubt.

[May90]

2014. Moving to the US - best event to happen in my life so far!

[Gheld]

2012. That's when the world ended.

[Independent voter]

2016 is shaping up nicely.

[Hawthorne Wipes]

Both 2011 and 13 were so damn good.

[Molis]

I couldn't find 1987 in the poll so went with 2011, my 3rd ad final child was born.

[Grummgug]

2010:

On the economic front, the US Federal Reserve was well into QE1 (or the Japan Experiment) of buying bonds to prop up the stock market and economy as we entered 2010. The original Obama plan in this regard was to implement "trickle down economics" by purchasing mortgage bonds, which is stimulus that should in theory trickle down to the rest of the economy and get it moving again. Things had been going well so they halted new bond purchases as summer approached in 2010, but the market did not take the news well and started to tank. So those purchases began again. On top of that, in November 2010, the Federal Reserve started purchasing treasury bonds to try to keep the economy from collapsing. This was called "QE2".

2011:

On June 29, 2011, the Fed intended to begin handing off the reins of the economy to the private sector by ending QE2. This was a total failure. The stock market went into another death spiral immediately. The Fed was forced to change course and announced Operation Twist on September 22, 2011, where the Fed sold long term treasuries and bot short term treasuries in an effort to hold interest rates down. We trudged along.

QE2 ends 6/29/11: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ma...75T0KW20110630
Operation Twist announce 9/22/11: http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/21/news...eration_twist/

2012:

With the economy still extremely sluggish, Operation Twist was deemed insufficient. QE3 was announced on September 13, 2012, where once again the Fed would be buying close to $100 billion of mortgage bonds per month to stop a collapse. At the same time, the Fed pledged to keep interest rates at ZERO until at least 2015. Massive stimulus needed because the economy was doing nothing. With all of this stimulus now rolling, the economy began to move a little bit and stocks rose.

QE3 begins 9/13/12: http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/13/news...l-reserve-qe3/

2013:

Not much policy changed in 2013. Obama did nothing on his end to help fix the economy, leaving it to the Federal Reserve to continue setting policy. The Fed toyed with tapering the bond purchases but QE3 continued for the entire year. The economy sputtered along and the stock market rose.

2014:

On October 29th, 2014, all of the Fed bond buying programs ended. QE3 was shuttered. Once again, an attempt was made to hand off the economy to the private sector. Stock markets went into a deep decline as the date approached, but rebounded afterwards.

10/29/14: Fed ends QE3 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed...omy-2014-10-29

2015: With the conclusion of QE3, the economy continued to sputter along and the stock market entered a trading range marked by sharp corrections. The lack of QE exposed US markets to foreign events, and the collapse of the Chinese stock markets in August 2015 drove US stocks down with it and broke the uptrend in US markets. There was also fear of a US interest rate hike, the first in 10 years, which help drop US stocks. The rate hike came on December 156, 2015, with promises of more.

China economic fears rattle US economy August 2015: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34003197
Fed raises interest rates 12/16/15: http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news...est-rate-hike/

2016:

The year got off to a horrible start as China continued to collapse, dragging everything else down with it. US stocks suffered their second nasty correction in 6 months in January and February 2016. US markets have barely recovered since, and struggle to stay above where they were when QE3 ended in fall 2015. The long term moving average of US markets is nosing down and worse times may be immediately ahead. the credit spreads imply a 30% chance of recession in 2016.

A good chart for the road is below which shows merger & acquisition volume in the US (M&A). This is important to economists because a great sign that a recession is coming is when companies get VERY aggressive with mergers. Mergers can often go bad. A sharp increase in mergers leads to a sharp increase in defaults in the coming months, which then puts pressure on banks and usually kicks off a recession.



2015 saw a massive increase in merger and acquisition spending, which tells us companies are likely getting too bold and loose with their money again. This will lead to fresh imbalances in the economy which will have to be wrung out in the next recession.

A good editorial on late-stage credit cycle mergers, credit risks, and interest rates for 2016 is here (the author actually offers a rosy outlook, suggesting one more leg up for the economy before the next recession): http://www.ftseglobalmarkets.com/blo...-coalmine.html


########################


tl:dr

what was the best year? 2013, but they were all bad and frought with deep problems that have not been addressed.

Worst year was 2011, where we saw total policy failure. They tried to end QE, the economy started to collapse and so they went back to it and couldn't figure out how to fix anything.

[Celista]

Uhh. Is "none of the above" an option?

[breadisfunny]

poor grummgug. all he seems to care about is his money.

[belfpala]

Why isn't 1996 an option? First time I got laid, first time I went to a concert, first time I had a job, first time I could drive a car, first time I smoked pot... Good year!

[Grummgug]

poor grummgug. all he seems to care about is his money.

I know, I know, the OT forum is absolutely FILLED with talk about money. If only we could take a break from the endless threads about it to discuss other stuff! Just once in a while would be nice. A little balance instead of this being the investment forum. Breadisfunny, you hit the nail on the head!

[Amirila]

2015 was hands down the best of those years for me. Without a doubt.

Agreed!

[breadisfunny]

I know, I know, the OT forum is absolutely FILLED with talk about money. If only we could take a break from the endless threads about it to discuss other stuff! Just once in a while would be nice. A little balance instead of this being the investment forum. Breadisfunny, you hit the nail on the head!

grummgug is that all you focus on is money? have you ever wondered how your life would be with not having to worry about such things?

[Deleted]

Agreed!

:]

But to be more specific: Had some nice personal things happening, met some really great people here - and met my girlfriend.
All things that I can't exactly say about other years, which were mostly pretty bad.

[Azadina]

Of those options, 2015 it is. I met my partner then This year is shaping to be sooo many times better tho!

[Icoblablubb]

even tho its not on the list i vote for 2016 when Nostalrius got shut down and licking all them butthurt salty tears