Prediction: Will "Warcraft" reach top 200?

[Val the Moofia Boss]

I have hopes that it'll be a great film, but realistically I think it'll be around Pacific Rim levels of monetary success, so no.

[Shadowferal]

Apparently your "many" are those who don't watch TV and/or use YouTube with AdBlockers and that's not meant as a knock to you at all. I have no dog in the fight. Shit, just like every other movie I'll just download it.

Those that see the ads are indifferent, and that's if they care to remember them.
It's just something that they aren't into.

[Sam the Wiser]

I hope it bombs.

[Adamas102]

Lolwut? Niche? I would say more people have played a Warcraft game than people who actually read Guardian of the Galaxy comics or even most Marvel comics in general before the MCU came out.

Warcraft is huge in Media, it is nowhere near "niche"

Bigger than Guardians? Yeah, but that isn't saying much. Guardians did a good job of tethering itself to the rest of the MCU. It might not have done so well if they had decided to release it as the first movie of the MCU before Ironman. As for how many people read Marvel comic books? I don't know. I was never a comic book reader, but most of the big characters like Captain America, Thor, or Hulk were recognizable names long before the MCU.

You think people who never played a Warcraft game are going to recognize the names Guldan or Medivh or Anduin? While the games were all wildly popular amongst the people who played them, the appeal of the franchise is still pretty limited. If anything, the association with WoW (which is unavoidable since that has been the biggest and most recent installment in the franchise) is more likely to have the effect opposite to broadening the target audience for the movie.

Comparing it to the most obscure installment of the MCU doesn't make it any less niche. "Huge in the media"? Lolwut, indeed...

[A Dark Knight]

I'm not even going to go see the movie. That's how enthusiastic I'm about it. Everything about the movie reeks shit.

gotta save those 10 bucks for important stuff ama right?

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I hope it bombs.

there is no scenario that this movie doesnt make a x4 profit, mr.salt

[Deleted]

50% wants to see the movie but is afraid of being labeled a geek.
So no.

[OreoLover]

Afraid of geek labels? This after the huge successes for decades of Star Wars, Star Trek, Lord of the Rings, comic book movies? xD

The vote is a 40-41 tossup at this point, which I'm happy to see, as far as me not being sure despite my faith in it earning big money.

[Feredir]

Here is the long and short of it. Warcraft releases June 10, 2016, June 17th has Finding Dory hitting theaters, and June 24 has Independence Day.

Warcraft will lose numbers to the family friendly Dory, and even more to the over the top action of Independence Day.

My prediction is 18-23 millions tickets over a 4 week period, with a gross of approximately 170-185 million.

week 1- 105M
week 2- 45M
week 3- 15-20M
week 4- 15-20M

So...no, it will not make the Top 200.

edit: And I'm being very generous, Dory and ID however, will make the Top 200.

[Deleted]

No it wont. And comparing it with LOTR is just rediciulous.

[ItachiZaku]

Maybe only 200K of the current 2mil subs would see this, not many average movie goes cuz it looks like a shit version of the hobbit. I'd No where near 37 million.

[Kikazz]

Actually, according to Blizzard over 100 million accounts were created in the first 10 years

oh k let me rephrase.


at peak blizzard has 12.5m ACTIVE accounts.

[Laerrus]

Depends. Awesome cutting edge CG no longer brings in the sales it once did. This movie is going to need some positive advance reviews, good marketing and good word of mouth. Marketing shouldn't be a problem and David Bowie's kid is a good director, so I don't doubt that it will be a good movie, but how true is it going to be to the lore and is this going to be enjoyable for anyone not familiar with the Warcraft universe?

[Taro10]

I'm sure it'll do good. First of all, it has the potential to be the very first successful movie based off of a video game. We all know how bad past adaptations have been. We're talking about just WoW "fanboys", we clearly haven't talked about BLIZZARD fanboys. Do you know how large that number is? Even if people go to see how horrible it is... its still a ticket being sold. WoW has been played by over 100 million people. Those who quit have done so because they grew up and don't have the time for it anymore (yet they still love warcraft), some have left because of content fatigue, or just don't like the current expansion or whatever. Remember the CRAZY spike we got at beginning of WoD? Why? Because people were going back to see the old characters they loved. Imagine that but all the way back to Warcraft 1. This movie will sell the tickets. Question should be: Will it be good or not? Example: Batman vs Superman, movie was GARBAGE yet look how many tickets they sold.

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It could also pull fans of the actors in the movie. Vikings is a successful TV show and people love Ragnar. I'm sure some of that audience will love it. Ben Foster. Dominic Cooper... Believe it or not but actors themselves can bring a crowd. Good example would be movies played by Christian Bale, Russel Crowe, Tom Cruise or whatever, change the actor and it could be horrible.

[donjn]

Regarding predicting box office. On Rotten Tomatoes, look at the right side. "Want to See". It is at 96% which is good not great. Blockbusters are always at 99%:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/warcraft/

Has anyone ever used that "want to see" number and measured it against actual box office? Would be interesting.

[Taro10]

Well Alice is at 95% sure its just 1% but have you seen the MAJOR difference in Europe and how Warcraft has almost sold out in theaters? Compared to Alice? that 1% is crazy. It all depends on ratings too, Apocalypse is at 99% yet it has been destroyed by the critics.

[ravenmoon]

a large, large, large, chunk of WoW fanbase and playerbase is in china

i'm looking at that you know, Legendaries is owned by a chinese company now, so this movie would be pushed in China a lot.

I hear the USA do not have optimistic forecasts for this movie at all, which I think is a shame, they lost confidence in the project after the reviews. However in EUrope, the movie was released early and it seems to be a huge success, but then all the warcraft fans will go to see it, with their friends and loved ones, and will try to bring others along to boost their fave game movie.

AFterall, hugely successful film = lots more warcraft in the future, unless Armageddon comes, which will be ironic, since it's pretty much Armageddon type scenarios there.

It's looking optimistic for china, but if it tanks in the U.S, you're going to see development skewed towards pleasing the chinese market, rather than the U.S

Atm, even while many are now expecting it to disappoint in the U.S box office because of the reviews, it's not set in stone, there have been enough wildcard movies that became sensations not cos of reviews, because you watched it, thought it was awesome, told your grubby friends, and they went and watched it because of that and so on.

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I honestly don't give a shit if it does incredibly well or poor, I just want to enjoy a movie in the Warcraft universe, idgaf about anyone elses opinion.

you should, if it does well, you'll get more, if tanks, then you probably won't see any more.

[Teebone]

For all the 'success' it has... I'd like to point out (because I could use a laugh) Angry Birds is actually doing better.

[ravenmoon]

i've been to the cinema about 3 times this year in the UK, maybe 4, including last week, still not seen 1 warcraft movie trailer.

My local cinema has it sharing screenings with a kids movie, 2 slots each - which I've never seen them do, and they pre-released early, ours coming up on May 30th, , something they only do when they think a movie is going to tank. Saying that, they are releasing it on a bank holiday monday, that's also quite odd, but it's a good day to release a film cos everyone's on holiday and a lot of people go to see the movies unless it's sunny in which case they go to the beach.

So if it rains in the UK on Monday, Warcraft may be a surprise strong opener, but forecasts for Monday are sunny. not boding well - basically the odds are stacked against it. funnily enough it's a movie about a group whom the odds are also stacked against, but will warcraft get its fairy tale ending? The story has not been kind with fairy tale endings, they don't bring much hope.

Plot wise, disaster happens at the end, we survive, but everything is a waste - that is actually depressing even though we win. And warcraft story does that over and over again, in WC2, and WC3, in fact, only TBC had a bright ending. Warcraft doesn't give fairytale endings, so why should it get one in the box office?

I'm looking at Legion closely now, and wondering, it's so so dark, very dark, and despite all its cool features etc - it's actually quite a depressing story, if it ends in more darkness ... let's just say, we need bright endings too, and they are a much bigger high especially after long periods of darkness

[Puupi]

For all the 'success' it has... I'd like to point out (because I could use a laugh) Angry Birds is actually doing better.

Children's movies are the most profitable movies anyway. So that is hardly surprising.

[Shadowferal]

you should, if it does well, you'll get more, if tanks, then you probably won't see any more.

Well...I've yet to see the movie...but if the storyline was written by the same geniuses that wrote WoD...then all I can say is that it's time for Blizzard Entertainment to go file Chapter 11 (or is it 13?) They will have become the 2nd company I've personally seen go from one bad decision to worse. (Fucking up WoW fanbase should deserve some penalty)

But...I will try to be as objective as possible when viewing the movie...*spits*