Mafia #70: D&D

[Deleted]

It could also be unique to dupti's death announcing people visiting him that night.

I don't see any other choice than lynching Arialla. If he's town then we know there is someone who can create illusions, if scum we just killed scum who got caught.

But Catta! Ariallas train is clearly a deflection from Largehorn!

Sorry I'm just getting a jump on tomorrow's posts

[Kryllian]

I've entertained the illusion and mind control properties of Arialla but I keep coming back to the more likely scenario of it being a self defense in case of death mechanism on Dupti's part or another persons watching/alarm system. I'm sticking with Arialla for my vote unless something more damning comes up.

Can someone explain the Large train. There are several of us who aren't getting any response more than "the BF lynch was a deflection"...In my vote on BF it was an inactive (most likely scum sliding by) lynch. What has Large done that was so damning. Granted I skimmed over the first two days with all the infighting but that wasn't involving large.

[Razamith]

So i'm thinking on the scenarios where arialla is scum and someone's ability exposed him.
1) Dupit's abiltiy exposes his killer (always or in certain circumstances) -- i have to question this one as A) i struggle to find an ability a thief has that would fit B) As i've pointed out but hasn't been brought up like at all RP text implies dupti was double-tapped or more; if so why wouldn't it expose all killers (barring ninja modifier i presume).
2) Dupti's killer exposed by a town-aligned ability cast on dupti -- i can see this as he was a prominent figure all three last days, last one specifically. I still have to account for the second point above of why weren't all killers exposed.
3) Dupti's killer exposed by a town-aligned ability cast on arialla -- I'd need to accept why arialla would be chosen to track/expose/whatever with the ability; he's not exactly high profile nor lurking this game.
The opposite side of the coin is a prominent framer/illusion/doppelganger/mind control/etc. I also have to justify why scum would target arialla as a frame target.

I'm finding myself inching toward arialla defense group, a position i'm not totally thrilled about since he may still be best lynch for info (if scum have equally or more powerful abilities than town i sure as hell hope the ratio is better than 1/3:2/3 with their ability to coordinate things -.- ). Also with graeham's 100% certain declaration he's making it a "me or him" situation, which you should never do as town unless you're actually 100% positive -- so its another reason to land on one of those two. Largehorn alternative option is a complete believably / evaluation of content lynch -- i'm drawing parallels with jynx lynch in that its a powerful role to lose if town but quality of content makes it a tempting vote (IMO getting better but not necessarily good yet).

Reluctantly I'd be most for an arialla lynch today, with getting tempted to take a chance on largehorn too. Ideally I'd rather some of the lower content (not necessarily count) posters start getting pushed more, like how kryll was pushed yesterday and has increased activity since [this is not a statement one way or another on his alignment]. Valyrian is getting away with a lot of leeway (especially considering D1/D2 reasonings) and i'm barely the only person mentioning him. I find the handful of people naming Uggor as town-leaning interesting seeing as I find a hard time finding good content from him and especially considering D1 he technically started listo train (plus 2 votes on unknown alignment), and not a SINGLE vote since until D4 today with graeahm. Robo has played the quietest game i can think of; he has either a solid town vote or perfect bus vote on jynx, and a few good insights in the rare posts i see, so i'm vacillating here. Also others named in my analysis posts people seem to be TL;DR-ing (something scum probably happy to accommodate since Jynx was mentioned in my first one before the first vote on him).

We're two mislynches in, and danner always says town gets its two (or three?) mislynches then its game. I'm less worried from a couple one-night kills and power-heavy can change dynamics a lot, but really want to see some more non-green flips.

[Kryllian]

You're not the only one with an eye on Val. If the RP hadn't shown the kill last night I was prepared to push on him. His Joke voting on Ret for multiple days combined with lack of actual input has had him on my radar.

[Graeham]

As an aside, only one scum player has been killed so far. In recent games town have shown that they're prone to the rather unfortunate trend of being easily led away from the most obvious lynch even when someone is painted in an unflattering light by multiple TPR's. Remember when Strikered cast major doubt on Dupti, flipped a TPR and it took three game days to get Dupti lynched despite that? I really hope the same scenario isn't playing out here.

Furthermore the players with a vote on me will almost certainly shift their votes over to Largehorn towards the end of the day. Of that I have no doubt - they'll likely deem my train as having 'too much resistance' and then claim that they're willing to vote on Largehorn over Arialla. Scum are in a very comfortable position at the moment. They've only lost one member of their team - and we have no idea what the other kills are from. A serial killer? A vigilante? A JOAT?

In short, we need information and lynching Arialla gives us that information. I'd rather be lynched over Largehorn, though, if need be. I know Arialla is scum so I'll happily sacrifice myself if the players not voting on him aren't willing to get their act together.

[KurenaiXIII]

Or you know I didn't think of those options...

D) Seems unlikely from my D&D (limited mind!) knowledge but E) is a definite policy possibility

Mind Control -is- a thing in D&D. In 5th edition (what I think mods are using) it's called Dominate Person, and is a fairly high-level spell.

Also, why C) not an option? Do you regularly expect who did kills to be announced to the thread? I mean, if anything, that seems to be the *most* likely option, certainly more likely than a framer. Whenever I've done a kill in past games, third party, scum, or vig, I never expected to be exposed doing it unless someone watched my target/tracked me/etc., so how can you say that Arialla not knowing his kill would be announced to the thread is not likely?

Unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean here.
@Razamith You're right, Valyrian has definitely not been on my mind much. And we should rectify that soon.

[Razamith]

I'd be on ari currently (as of last post, see evaluation) if it wouldn't push him to L-1 with almost a quarter of the day left. I'd rather hear any final discussions (to my analysis or current situations in general or new thoughts) if offered.

[Senna1251]

I am working on a major thoughts post on everyone alive right now, because I finally have my computer back and can take notes again. It's going to take a little bit though.

[Kryllian]

Ok, something has been bugging me about Arialla's claim and I've gone through the posts and it's flagging for me.

Supposedly he has a leadership ability that gives a double vote the next day if he leads a lynch. If that were me I'd be voting early to try and secure that bonus for town for the next day. Not only has Arialla not led the vote on any lynch I'm not seeing much for any voting at all...

[Arialla]

Again, won't be home for 5 hours, give me that much, can't really quote shit on the phone

[Largehorn]

what did you do last night?

Well last night I protected one person and myself. I would rather not share who that was yet since I informed I can’t protect the same targets on multiple nights… at least not with my self protect augment. So if I use my power to fullest it apparently does have a limitation.

I will share if pressed and if it’s required because I can always sacrifice myself to defend them again.

I saw the mention so I started here, I want to catch up with the rest of the thread now.

[Xanjori]

Yeah Largehorns claim is full of shit.

He visited Dupti last night, I tracked him.

[Largehorn]

Yeah Largehorns claim is full of shit.

He visited Dupti last night, I tracked him.

Oh yeah? Well if I kill anyone it's announced to the thread. I didn't kill a soul I visited Uggor last night.

- - - Updated - - -

Thanks for outing yourself though Xan.

We now know who to lynch tomorrow.

[Xanjori]

Lol, if you expect anyone to believe that bullshit I've got a bridge to sell you.

It's such a retarded claim I don't evne know where to begin. "If I kill anyone it's announced to the thread." Really? Lol.

[Largehorn]

Lol, if you expect anyone to believe that bullshit I've got a bridge to sell you.

It's such a retarded claim I don't evne know where to begin. "If I kill anyone it's announced to the thread." Really? Lol.

It's true though... As for the "big bad" barbarian and it takes a shit ton of rage. Believe what you want, I'm not lying.

[Senna1251]

Still working on big analysis, but now this shitstorm came up, feel like I should address:

@Xanjori Why did you wait until now in the last 4th of the day to disclose this information? People have been asking all day why Large was such an obvious lynch including myself. You had multiple opportunities to disclose something.

[Xanjori]

Because I wanted Large to come forth and admit, unfortunately he took this long to answer.

Besides the more people that implicate themselves in the lie the more information town have.

[Senna1251]

Because I wanted Large to come forth and admit, unfortunately he took this long to answer.

Besides the more people that implicate themselves in the lie the more information town have.

Ok, though you could have asked sooner. Though you say that waiting this long helps give information for town. All right then, how about a little transparency from you? What people have "implicated themselves" in this apparent lie? What have you gained out of waiting this long to ask Large? Also, if Large did visit Dupti, what do you make of only Arialla being ratted out?

I'm being hard on you because as town, we now know that either you or Large told a big fat lie, but we have no way of knowing who is lying. We have to make a decision, because given the timing, we probably have scum somewhere between you, Arialla, and Largehorn, but if we make a mistake it could be a giant blow to town. This could sway a lot of people because normally when there is two conflicting claims, you lynch one of the two. I'm afraid that since you divulged this information at this point in the day it could lead to a no-lynch.

In closing, why should I believe you? Why should Large be voted over Arialla?

[Deleted]

Welp this is interesting

*grabs popcorn*

[Xanjori]

Ok, though you could have asked sooner. Though you say that waiting this long helps give information for town. All right then, how about a little transparency from you? What people have "implicated themselves" in this apparent lie? What have you gained out of waiting this long to ask Large? Also, if Large did visit Dupti, what do you make of only Arialla being ratted out?

I'm being hard on you because as town, we now know that either you or Large told a big fat lie, but we have no way of knowing who is lying. We have to make a decision, because given the timing, we probably have scum somewhere between you, Arialla, and Largehorn, but if we make a mistake it could be a giant blow to town. This could sway a lot of people because normally when there is two conflicting claims, you lynch one of the two. I'm afraid that since you divulged this information at this point in the day it could lead to a no-lynch.

In closing, why should I believe you? Why should Large be voted over Arialla?

The first question, I don't know what to say. Who do YOU think has implicated themselves? I've revealed information that Large lied, who do YOU think defended him and could be a team-mate? Because I'm not here to teach you the game, if you think people have made slips, that's on YOU to work out. If you want me to do all the work for you all I can assume is because you have no actual interest in scum-hunting (and we both know why that'd be the reason.)

I tried to ask Large early, in fact I asked the question itself some 19 hours ago. The fact it took over 16 hours for him to reply is hardly my fault.

The Arialla thing is why I didn't come straight out, I wanted to give Large a chance, but when he is claiming Bodyguard and I track him to someone that died, it's clear he lied. I voted on Large straight away because I wanted to see what reactions it'd cause, other people agreed with me. The Arialla thing complicates everything, because it seems damning, I don't know really what to make it of because imo RP shouldn't dictate the game which is also why I missed it initially.

Also I tracked Dupti to Jynx, so there is your evidence that I'm not lying about my role.

We can surely go ahead and lynch Arialla today, because that seems the way everything is going, but if he comes back town then Larges coffin should be here tomorrow.