BREXIT - leave or remain?

[ranzino]

True, but the question is that once it gives it resignation-notice - can that be stopped later, or is the only possibility to rejoin?
It seems practically certain that the UK will send in that resignation-notice - so you might as well consider it done.

I did not see that article 50 included some way to stop the leaving - just delay it.

Delay only within the 2 years limit, otherwise you need a vote by all other members in favor of a longer process. not a majority vote, mind you: a yes from all and every member of EU.
So once the Art. 50 letter is in the mail to Brussels, you are out. The trip to the door is maybe short or long, but not the door's existence.

[Forogil]

Not sure, its not a very long document, guess we will find out :P

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the...rticle-50.html

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
--
Nothing about stopping the process. Neither that it can be done, nor that it is impossible.

[Consternation]

Apparently the British plan is to negotiate trade deals with US/China/Canada/Commonwealth before invoking article 50. Interesting how the EU would deal with that

[Deleted]

not sure what the problem here is other then an EU directive preventing false advertising?

Guess what, over here people have learned to read what is on the product sheet and it wasn't an issue before absurd directives like this were put into place.

They didn't even market it as butter but because the name CONTAINED the word for it, they had to rename the entire product lineup. The exact reasoning was "It might be confused with one".

[Valkaneer]

Stop talking when you have no idea what you are talking about, the UK isn't part of the Euro so they don't pay to Greece.

You don't think a weak Euro doesn't effect the UK? Your wrong. That is only true since 2015, not before. The UK has spent money to bail out Greece before.

https://group.atradius.com/publicati...rket-2015.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-hit-euro.html

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/423...Greek-bail-out

[GennGreymane]

Whooooppppssssssss

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-on-migration

Campaigners to get Britain out of the European Union won their shock victory by building an alliance of older and less-educated voters angry about the way globalization has changed their lives. Now they’re telling people they won’t get what they want.

Vote Leave explicitly targeted people concerned about immigration, warning them that millions of Turks were on their way to Britain. The morning after they won Boris Johnson, their leading spokesman and the favorite to succeed David Cameron as prime minister, began backing away from that message.

“I want to speak directly to the millions of people who did not vote for this outcome, especially young people, who may feel that this decision in some way involves pulling up a drawbridge,” he said. “I think the very opposite is true. We can control our own borders in a way that is not discriminatory but fair and balanced, and take the wind out of the sails of the extremists and those who would play politics with immigration.”

Johnson’s discomfort with the campaign tactics that delivered him victory reflect a deep division within the backers of Brexit. Many at the top want a liberal, free market, low-regulation country modeled on London, the city Johnson led for eight years. Johnson proposed an amnesty for illegal immigrants, and said anyone with a job should be able to come to the country. But the people whose votes they relied on want dramatically reduced immigration and more regulation, even if it means being poorer.
‘Crucial Split’

“It’s a crucial split within the Leave group,” said Gerry Stoker, professor of political science at Southampton University. “It was absolutely clear that a lot of their supporters weren’t just voting for ending new immigration, but for sending back existing immigrants.”
The spokesman for anti-migrant angst isn’t Johnson, but Nigel Farage, whose U.K. Independence Party helped force the referendum in the first place. Farage has long wanted to get out of the EU, but only began to succeed once he linked it in people’s minds to immigration. His argument was that “I’d rather we weren’t slightly richer and I’d rather we had communities that felt more united.”

In the early days of the referendum campaign, Vote Leave rejected an approach focused on immigration, partly because few of their principal spokesmen supported it. But in the final month, it reversed that stance. Farage, frozen out of the official campaign, went further, publishing a poster showing refugees entering the EU that Leave supporter Michael Gove said made him “shudder”.
Taking Sides

With the battle won, those around Farage are determined that the focus on immigration shouldn’t be abandoned. “Entirely reasonable to believe that the Conservative Party learned nothing from this vote,” wrote Arron Banks, Farage’s principal donor, on Twitter when he read Johnson’s pro-immigration comments.

If Johnson hopes to lead the country, he will need to decide whose side he’s on. He’s already tasting the problems of taking sides. A popular former London Mayor, he had the jarring experience of winning the country but not his own city, which voted strongly for “Remain.” The day of his triumph, he left his house to be greeted with an angry crowd and shouts of “scum.”

Quoting Greek
Meanwhile polling by former Conservative lawmaker Michael Ashcroft found a clear correlation between age and likelihood to vote for a Brexit. Some 60 percent of the over-65s and 57 percent of those aged 55 to 64 voted to leave the bloc, compared with just 27

percent of those aged 18 to 24. A study by YouGov found that those with university degrees voted strongly for “Remain,” while those who left school at 16 voted strongly for “Leave.”

ohnson, a wealthy man who went to Eton, one of the world’s most prestigious schools, and is given to quoting Latin and Greek, is on the other side of the argument from the young and the educated. If he wants to win them back, and follow his own instincts, it will be at the cost of disappointing the people whose support helped him win this week.

And if he does succeed in replacing Cameron as prime minister, any meaningful trade deal negotiated with the EU will likely require some concessions on the free movement of people. The Swiss government spent the last two years seeking a way to introduce restrictions for newcomers without having to annul a bilateral deal with the EU that would cost Swiss output an estimated 32 billion francs ($33 billion) a year.

“Delivering the full package of what many people think they voted for is highly unlikely,” said Peter Paul Catterall, reader in history, sociology and criminology at the University of Westminster. “The process will be messy. Because of the inevitable mismatch between the expectations that have been raised and any likely results, it could also get ugly.”

[Doylez]

There you don't go. They are speculating before the referendum as can be seen from the texts - but possibly late with publishing.

nope, it's from today

...that passport could be withdrawn according to a veiled threat from ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau today...
...Villeroy de Galhau said Saturday...

[Valkaneer]

Greece is neither export/import based. They are a small economy. The EU would not crash from a Greek market collapse. Your arguments would be better off never mentioning Greece specifically.

Look, I get that there's a lot of shitty things about the EU. It's very difficult to look at the entire situation and to say whether Leave is as bad as it really sounds. Short-term (5 years) it will obviously suck, but long term, no one really knows for sure. It's obviously good for the UK to go the route of decentralization, but they will be losing immensely on a global scale and the EU will continue to protect their interests. The USA is already pivoting away from Europe to China.

Personally, I feel their survival requires a united Europe. And yes, the southern states need massive labor reform.

Greece collapsing causes a chain reaction, if Greece fails, then Spain will probably fail because it can't take the hit. Then if Spain fails, etc etc etc. You act as if one country does not affect the rest. Every time it weakens the whole, and the weakest is affected the most. Just like when the US devalues their currency it caused mass food shortages in the Middle east, which caused the Arab spring and the over throw / failure of at least 3-4 countries.

In truth the US currency devaluation very well may of caused the spiral down fall in the EU.

[Deleted]

Let's not forget;

Germany Warns Of Brexit Domino Effect

Germany is warning of a Brexit domino effect as far-right leaders in France and the Netherlands demand their own EU referendums.

Germany fears France, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and Hungary may follow the UK and leave the EU, a government paper says.

The finance ministry strategy paper expresses concern that the UK's historic vote may trigger a Brexit domino effect across Europe, according to the German newspaper Die Welt.

It recommends that the EU enters into negotiations aimed at making the UK an "associated partner country" for the remaining 27 nations.

As it stands, the UK's exit may cause Germany's contribution to the EU's budget to rise by 3bn euros (£2.44bn) a year, the paper adds

Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1717150/ge...-domino-effect

Personally I feel we should fuck off from EU as fast as we can and gain control of our own sovereignty as soon as possible. You can keep your refugee shit, German bank bailouts and other garbage that we've had to endure over the last few years.

[Deleted]

Greece is neither export/import based. They are a small economy. The EU would not crash from a Greek market collapse. Your arguments would be better off never mentioning Greece specifically.

Look, I get that there's a lot of shitty things about the EU. It's very difficult to look at the entire situation and to say whether Leave is as bad as it really sounds. Short-term (5 years) it will obviously suck, but long term, no one really knows for sure. It's obviously good for the UK to go the route of decentralization, but they will be losing immensely on a global scale and the EU will continue to protect their interests. The USA is already pivoting away from Europe to China.

Personally, I feel their survival requires a united Europe. And yes, the southern states need massive labor reform.

Thats the problem. Only an united Europe can be strong in the world. Brexit weakens European influence for sure and who knows what might follow. A EU breakdown would be worst case even for the UK. Best case would be a strong EU that afford a strong connection to Britain. But a weak EU (and Brexit really weakens the EU) cant afford anything like this.

Neither people want to hear it: a weak EU has to punish the UK because if the Brexit would be a success, it would be the end of the EU.

There are already two directions:
one asking to punish UK hard, the other one says that the markets alone will punish UK very hard on its own so EU should help.

In the end: the weaker EU is, the worse for the UK. Whatever might be left. I am pretty sure scotland will leave. And dont underetimate the crazy idea of London leaving the UK. London will be hit very very hard by Brexit. In 10 or 20 years there might be a lot of hatred about Brexit in London. And this could lead to the unthinkable.

[Noradin]

I might be wrong. What are they talking about here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11976114

I'm not going search all that for some anonymous poster who might have created the rumour that Norway was is the EU.
It wasn't. Not Ever. I cannot have left since it was never a member in the first place.

- - - Updated - - -

Of course there will be concessions, that is how negotiations work, concessions =/= punishment

A deal that is acceptable to both the UK and EU is what both sides will strive for, which was my argument. The idea that the EU will punish the UK for leaving was childish nonsense, yet numerous people have repeated that claim as if it was fact.

Anything generous will not be acceptable to the general public in many countries.

[Kalis]

Anything generous will not be acceptable to the general public in many countries.

Those people will not get a say and most people thinking that way are probably below the age of majority anyway, so who gives a shit what a bunch of angry kids think?

[Consternation]

Whooooppppssssssss

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-on-migration

The vote was to take back control of immigration. Its up to us to elect a government which will do it.

[Deleted]

Let's not forget;


Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1717150/ge...-domino-effect

Personally I feel we should fuck off from EU as fast as we can and gain control of our own sovereignty as soon as possible. You can keep your refugee shit, German bank bailouts and other garbage that we've had to endure over the last few years.

Germany isnt UKs problem. Germany has strong interest in a free market with the UK to sell their exports. Of course there will always be an angry german politician. But surely not Merkel and the german government. They always considered the UK as a strong ally against socialists.

There are other governments that cant afford this to happen. It is crazy to believe that germany will be fighting this. Id say the real problem will be France and some eastern countries might have stronger interests to see UK fail.

[Deleted]

I am reading this threat since they announce the ''winners'', from what I am reading, the same users ''debate'' the same crap over and over again, which is boring to read, as i seen the obvious results of Uk leaving, can someone give me a link how UE is doing after the results, can't be only Uk going down

[Deleted]

Neither people want to hear it: a weak EU has to punish the UK because if the Brexit would be a success, it would be the end of the EU.

There are already two directions:
one asking to punish UK hard, the other one says that the markets alone will punish UK very hard on its own so EU should help.

In the end: the weaker EU is, the worse for the UK. Whatever might be left.

In part all this is partially self balancing. It is not as if the UK leaving the EU creates two totally separate financial universes. Each country will have both private and institutional investments in the businesses of others. I'm not talking about mom&pop portfolios with shares in some small bank. I'm talking about fucktonnes of investment. Each "side" effectively has a suicide pill against the other that nobody wants to use but making one side gasp for air might mean bad things for all concerned.

[ranzino]

hmm, defenders of democracy will howl and scream, but is there an option to ignore the referendum result on purpose ? Can anybody order the MP's and Lords to give consent to Artikel 50 ?

[Independent voter]

I'm not going search all that for some anonymous poster who might have created the rumour that Norway was is the EU.
It wasn't. Not Ever. I cannot have left since it was never a member in the first place.

- - - Updated - - -


Anything generous will not be acceptable to the general public in many countries.

Angry much? I meant "I might be wrong."

You know, like I typed?

[Kalador]

Let's not forget;


Source: http://news.sky.com/story/1717150/ge...-domino-effect

Personally I feel we should fuck off from EU as fast as we can and gain control of our own sovereignty as soon as possible. You can keep your refugee shit, German bank bailouts and other garbage that we've had to endure over the last few years.

If the domino effect happen... you're as screwed as everybody else in EU, in or out of it the shit storm is gona be major and global, in a globalise world 28 country together trading as a block are far far far more powerful than 28 country trying to do the same thing their on way, if they split the world just lose the biggest united maket in the world. If the shit collapse witch is what you seem to wish for, think twice cause it's not just bank and elite who are gona get hit, saving, pension fund, house market, if you have any money saved you better hope that no other country leaves EU, and that it doesn't crack, cause your gona lose big, normal family are gona lose big, middle class is gona lose big.

[Noradin]

Those people will not get a say and most people thinking that way are probably below the age of majority anyway, so who gives a shit what a bunch of angry kids think?

They will, in the next democratic election, and the ones who negotiated the deals know that and since they are dependent on those elections they will heed it one way or the other.