BREXIT - leave or remain?

[dribbles]

Just drove past petrol station 108 per litre on Tues today it's 111 per litre things sure arnt getting expensive I guess it is just my imagination

Yes wonderful isn't it. My BP shares have gone up 20% since the vote.

[Slant]

Ok I will try to explain as I would to a five year old.

May 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £37500

July 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £42500 (+£5000 currency tariff)

The UK purchaser was considering either car in May, now thinks in July the German one is too expensive so buys the other car. The Purchaser is very happy with his new non German car. The Germans have sold less cars. This is not good for german car makers. Old german is poorer as pension fund goes down. Old German has less Money. Old German goes to shops can't spend as much on bread. etc etc

I mean really you don't get this when even a five year old would?

Out of curiosity, what other car brand is he gonna get?

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Yes wonderful isn't it. My BP shares have gone up 20% since the vote.

Ah wonderful that you're personally profiting from it, fuck that other people suffer from it. Btw, we have a term in German for people like you, they're called asocial.

[dribbles]

Out of curiosity, what other car brand is he gonna get?

Shhhhhh ...... lol

[Tinch]

Just drove past petrol station 108 per litre on Tues today it's 111 per litre things sure arnt getting expensive I guess it is just my imagination

Anecdotal evidence is not a good way of measuring national fuel prices.

The Government actually reports on average fuel prices on a weekly basis: https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...kly-statistics

As you can see they have gone up less than half a penny since the week of the referendum.

[dribbles]

Ah wonderful that you're personally profiting from it, fuck that other people suffer from it. Btw, we have a term in German for people like you, they're called asocial.

Not just me, a majority of UK workers will hold BP shares via their pensions, so in spite of the remainiacs project fear stating as fact the average family will be £4300 worse off, actually they are likely to be £4300 better off. The same cannot be said for European workers whose stock markets are diving.

[Sama-81]

Ok I will try to explain as I would to a five year old.

May 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £37500

July 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £42500 (+£5000 currency tariff)

The UK purchaser was considering either car in May, now thinks in July the German one is too expensive so buys the other car. The Purchaser is very happy with his new non German car. The Germans have sold less cars. This is not good for german car makers. Old german is poorer as pension fund goes down. Old German has less Money. Old German goes to shops can't spend as much on bread. etc etc

I mean really you don't get this when even a five year old would?

Yeah, if we're talking about British imports, then you really need to look at imports in both directions, and not just imports but exports as well. Not just pick one single part of the equation, and magically come up with a conclusion derived from that singular part. Not to mention that a lot can be said in regards to other markets available for Germany to sell cars in, instead of Britain, and what markets Britain is going to start buying cars from, etc etc.

It's apt that you say that you'll make it simple enough for a five year old, because your analysis is on that level from the get go. Good luck coming to the conclusion that German pensioners are the real losers here, when taking the bigger picture into account.

[dribbles]

Yeah, if we're talking about British imports, then you really need to look at imports in both directions, and not just imports but exports as well. Not just pick one single part of the equation, and magically come up with a conclusion derived from that singular part. Not to mention that a lot can be said in regards to other markets available for Germany to sell cars in, instead of Britain, and what markets Britain is going to start buying cars from, etc etc.

It's apt that you say that you'll make it simple enough for a five year old, because your analysis is on that level from the get go. Good luck coming to the conclusion that German pensioners are the real losers here, when taking the bigger picture into account.

Yes let's look at how much more attractive British exports are since the vote. I wonder if European home grown economies are suffering now that there are so many cheap UK imports available, sure seems that way with their tanking EU stock markets. UK exporters are loving their new found competitiveness for sure.

[Sama-81]

Yes let's look at how much more attractive British exports are since the vote. I wonder if European home grown economies are suffering now that there are so many cheap UK imports available, sure seems that way with their tanking EU stock markets. UK exporters are loving their new found competitiveness for sure.

British exports aren't all that attractive to the EU, actually (and the EU aren't all that attractive to British exporters), otherwise they wouldn't have sunk with some 15% over the last decade and a half (while British imports from the EU, which will now get more expensive, has remained at the same level over the same time frame). If you think that we will see some major shift in those numbers due to the pound being where it's currently at, then I have some prime beachfront properties in the Swiss alps to sell to you. And then we're not even discussing what will happen when Britain actually invokes article 50, or how London will slowly lose it's attractiveness as a financial centre...I would worry, if I were a Brit. I really would. If you are dead set on believing BREXIT to be somehow good for Britain overall, however, well, I'm fine with waiting and letting events unfold themselves. After all, for us 'outsiders', who might be somewhat affected but certainly aren't within the line of fire, this whole thing might be worthy of a couch and some popcorn. Bad news and high ratings, and all that.

[Draco-Onis]

Yes let's look at how much more attractive British exports are since the vote. I wonder if European home grown economies are suffering now that there are so many cheap UK imports available, sure seems that way with their tanking EU stock markets. UK exporters are loving their new found competitiveness for sure.

I think your problem is you are seeing currency depreciation the same way for the UK as it would be for China, which is understandable but the UK is not China. As a matter of fact China is trying their hardest to be an economy like the UK, currency depreciation and the BOE going defcon 5 with monetary policy should be obvious clues.

The EU markets right now are more about central bank policies, possible failures of Italian banks and how the EU will respond to the UK long term, it has nothing to do with the UK's currency depreciation. Macro economics is much more complex than just one factor and your economy also has to deal with slowing down of investments, the real estate market depreciating on top of monetary policy. I suggest you look at the larger picture instead of one factor to determine whether or not the UK is better off.

[Noradin]

... so you don´t know what a tariff is and you think germans will pay the difference, when there actually is no difference because the 50.000€ car still costs 50.000€ and the only difference is britons have to pay more?

They do not have to pay more, they have less.
On paper it might look the same but in reality they simply have less to trade with.

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Ok I will try to explain as I would to a five year old.

May 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £37500

July 2016 Car Another £37500
Car German £42500 (+£5000 currency tariff)

The UK purchaser was considering either car in May, now thinks in July the German one is too expensive so buys the other car. The Purchaser is very happy with his new non German car. The Germans have sold less cars. This is not good for german car makers. Old german is poorer as pension fund goes down. Old German has less Money. Old German goes to shops can't spend as much on bread. etc etc

I mean really you don't get this when even a five year old would?

So that "Car Another" grows on a tree in your backyard?
Is that why it is not affected by your currency being worth less? Because all parts of it grow on trees around your home?

[AeneasBK]

Why are people engaging with someone so obviously here to spout bullshit and wind people up?

[dribbles]

Investing in oil... let me guess.. you also invest in Facebook and Google and Apple..

Yes of course, only a loser wouldn't. Not directly as I haven't filled in the tax form that the US/UK requires...but certainly via funds that concentrate on those stocks.

Let me guess you wouldn't/didn't invest? I am sorry you lost out, but in life there are winners and losers, look in the mirror which one are you. Brexit has been very profitable for some people and will continue to be.

[Cosmic Janitor]

Why are people engaging with someone so obviously here to spout bullshit and wind people up?

I blame the rules. We can't call people out on being trolls and move on. :/

[AeneasBK]

I blame the rules. We can't call people out on being trolls and move on. :/

Don't get me wrong ~I mean I kinda feel like a sanctimonious ex-smoker, as Im' far from a stranger to getting suckered in by bait. But still, when it's *this* blatent....

[Deleted]

Mwhahahaha Gove just got eliminated. Only got around half the votes of Ledsom and less than a quarter of what May got.

[Mayhem]

Why are people engaging with someone so obviously here to spout bullshit and wind people up?

I do it for the fun of what he can come up with next

[ranzino]

Mwhahahaha Gove just got eliminated. Only got around half the votes of Ledsom and less than a quarter of what May got.

Ok, it's down to May and Leadsom. Any clues how they would handle the Brexit case?

[Deleted]

Ok, it's down to May and Leadsom. Any clues how they would handle the Brexit case?

May will be a "soft brexit" but it will still happen, she far more likely to see us along the lines of EEA membership I think after some debating. Leadsom would be quite zealous about it all.

My feeling, based on knowing a bunch of Tories, of a variety of ages and backgrounds, is that most would favour May when they vote. I'd expect for May to win by 2/3 at least.

[ranzino]

May will be a "soft brexit" but it will still happen, she far more likely to see us along the lines of EEA membership I think after some debating. Leadsom would be quite zealous about it all.

My feeling, based on knowing a bunch of Tories, of a variety of ages and backgrounds, is that most would favour May when they vote. I'd expect for May to win by 2/3 at least.

Ok, the voting will happen when ?

[Deleted]

Ok, the voting will happen when ?

It's a postal ballot of all party members. They will probably announce when the count will be done tomorrow or Monday. I'd imagine it won't be as fast as most people could turn around their papers to allow for those who are on holiday/working abroad etc.