Well, it's happening, Trump is starting to lose bad in the polls..

[Orbitus]

Yea no. For all his rhetoric and idle talk does anybody actually think he would dk anything so remotely stupid? You people really bought that crap?

Sorry but if you don't think he would do that, then why does he sue anyone and everyone that pisses him off? If he has the whole arsenal at his disposal what makes you think he wouldn't use it?

[Ghostpanther]

Problem with this way of thinking is you end up with the 2012 election, in which a lot of people on the right thought Romney was going to win in a landslide because all of their own polls had him winning by large margins.

I am not saying polls are always accurate, and especially during this election with the candidates we have, but taking them in aggregate, and looking at past polls for accuracy, etc... you can get a good idea.

As we all know fivethirtyeight got the data right for 2012, using custom algorithms, etc...

I still think they can be useful and can show a general direction in a campaign, but can still be inaccurate. It was not just the Michigan primary where they got it wrong, some of Trump's wins were much larger then the polling showed. Such as SC and Indiana would be only a couple. As we near Nov, those polls will carry more weight I think when it comes to the actual election results. Even then, there is no guarantee they will be correct.

[Stonecloak]

They both look crappy. Hilary looks like the less stupid of the two though, but her flip flopping scares me.

[Dextroden]

Right, same thing happened with Clinton and Bernie. All I am suggesting (to both sides, really) is that polls are usually accurate, but sometimes they can get it way off... having someone that is crunching the numbers unbiasedly, with mathematically based weights, etc will usually get pretty accurate results, but it all depends on the people that get polled and how honest they are and the polling methodologies.

You mean *GASP* the polls claiming Bernie is a superior candidate are potentially a bunch of self affirming wank? (Made even funnier that he couldn't beat Hillary.)

Next you'll tell me the people guaranteeing a Trump victory if Hillary gets the nomination is potentially a large glob of hogwash.

[Wulfey]

Right, same thing happened with Clinton and Bernie. All I am suggesting (to both sides, really) is that polls are usually accurate, but sometimes they can get it way off... having someone that is crunching the numbers unbiasedly, with mathematically based weights, etc will usually get pretty accurate results, but it all depends on the people that get polled and how honest they are and the polling methodologies.

Yeah, but everyone in my TruckNutz club is voting Trump, so the polls must be lies.

[Dextroden]

I am insinuating that, yes... this election year has been pretty surprising for a few people, including the people that do polling... some of the polls have been way, way off.

The the only thing that surprised me this time are Trump being the sole survivor of the primary and just how fucking stupid some voters are. Everything else, including Bernie being a flop, has been par for the course.

Only surprise left is who will win because Trump is a variable. Up one minute and down the next.

[Deleted]

Hillary is marginally saner, so I will be voting for her regardless if the polls show her winning by 80%.

I'm surprised you'd vote for Hillary when you know what she is. Do you really think you can control her?

At least many Republicans who hate Trump agree that she needs to be stopped.

[Ghostpanther]

I am of the Bill Maher mindset on this. Neither party should be saying this sort of stuff. Go out and vote. If you think your candidate is a shoe in, and spread the message, some people become complacent and don't vote. And democrats have been pretty bad at doing this historically. But this goes for republicans as well... if you really think Trump is the guy that should be representing America, and the Free World, go out and vote for him and don't be complacent in thinking he is a shoe in. Ditto for people voting for Hillary.

I do not like Trump, and I do not like Hillary, but I think on the whole, Hillary is marginally saner, so I will be voting for her regardless if the polls show her winning by 80%.

Well, since you are in CA, do not think it matters. She will carry that state.

[Cthulhu 2020]

So you admit polls can be wrong. Good to know.

This is exactly why a multitude of polls are used, instead of just looking to predict the outcome of an election on a single poll. When there's 10+ polls all showing Clinton with a very healthy lead, it becomes far more solid ground than if it had just been a single poll.

Also, there's the margin of error too, which is generally about 5% off. So if the actual results are 5% off or less (say for instance the poll showed Hillary with a 4% lead then she lost by 1%) then it was within the margin of error and the poll wasn't "wrong" since it was within the understood margin of error.

[Kyriani]

Polls are meaningless. Everyone knows that it'll either be a close election that comes down to turn out or Donald Trump will be elected in a landslide. People who expect a Crooked Hillary landslide don't realize how much we despise her. Even if I didn't support Donald Trump I'd never vote for someone that if I was at one of her events I'd get up and walk out plugging my ears as soon as she started speaking

Republicans thought Romney would win in a "landslide" too... but apparently he just got buried by one.

[Bodakane]

I'm surprised you'd vote for Hillary when you know what she is. Do you really think you can control her?

At least many Republicans who hate Trump agree that she needs to be stopped.

Wait....what?

Is your stance that Hillary is a liar and an uncontrollable wildcard....so vote for TrumP?!?!??!?!?!

[Glorious Leader]

Sorry but if you don't think he would do that, then why does he sue anyone and everyone that pisses him off? If he has the whole arsenal at his disposal what makes you think he wouldn't use it?

Because he's not suicidal nor is he an evil genius. He sues everyone because it's easy to do and he can get away with it. To compare nuclear annihilation with a law suit is not balanced to say the least. Even if by some measure he really was that dumb I sincerely hope the men in woman in the US military would refuse such an order.

At best any threats of using nukes from trump is chicken talk from a chicken hawk. Don't buy the hype. Don't buy the fear mongering.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Because he's not suicidal nor is he an evil genius. He sues everyone because it's easy to do and he can get away with it. To compare nuclear annihilation with a law suit is not balanced to say the least. Even if by some measure he really was that dumb I sincerely hope the men in woman in the US military would refuse such an order.

I wouldn't put any sort of fuckery past Trump, but I trust our system of checks and balances to stop him - which is why I laugh at anyone who thinks he can keep any of his promises, like his wall or stopping the travel of Muslims. But let's be honest, Hillary is the status quo, which isn't great, but is not terrible in the least. Trump is a failure of a businessman, has narcissistic personality disorder paired with dementia, and as our primary diplomat would be awful for our foreign relations. Most foreigners hate him already, and he isn't even in the white house.

Someone almost always inevitably asks what it matters what other people think of our leader... and it takes an incredibly shallow thinking person to not consider what a complete and utter asshole, who gets his panties in a twist over the slightest insult, might do as our primary diplomat and face of our foreign relations.

[Glorious Leader]

I wouldn't put any sort of fuckery past Trump, but I trust our system of checks and balances to stop him - which is why I laugh at anyone who thinks he can keep any of his promises, like his wall or stopping the travel of Muslims. But let's be honest, Hillary is the status quo, which isn't great, but is not terrible in the least. Trump is a failure of a businessman, has narcissistic personality disorder paired with dementia, and as our primary diplomat would be awful for our foreign relations. Most foreigners hate him already, and he isn't even in the white house.

Yea I agree Hillary is awful as well but Trump isn't actually for Nuclear annihilation. I think we take the outrageous shit he says at face value but I don't think he's earned that privelege. Put it this way, I think theirs equally or even a better chance of someone like Hillary taking us to war then their is with Trump. That's not to say Trump won't but his fear mongering isn't backed up by anything. Hillary is a fucking ruthless blood hungry war driven bitch.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Yea I agree Hillary is awful as well but Trump isn't actually for Nuclear annihilation. I think we take the outrageous shit he says at face value but I don't think he's earned that privelege. Put it this way, I think theirs equally or even a better chance of someone like Hillary taking us to war then their is with Trump. That's not to say Trump won't but his fear mongering isn't backed up by anything. Hillary is a fucking ruthless blood hungry war driven bitch.

Trump has already declared that he wants to put 25k boots on the ground in the middle east, which is an enormous military movement. She's a warmonger because she voted for a war that pretty much every single other Senator voted for? Ok, what else? Every time people tell me why they think she's a warmonger, it's a very small list of incredibly weak evidence like that. There's been no evidence of recent aggressive international intent.

You know Trump's personality (or do you?). He's easily insulted and flies off the handle at the slightest insult. He himself is an asshole who provokes and taunts people. Hillary is trying to diffuse people's fears of Muslims while Trump is throwing TNT onto the fire of Muslim hate.

You think Trump would take us through peace, but Hillary is the war mongering bitch?

Pass that crack pipe, cause that must be some gooooooooooood stuff.

[Mormolyce]

Seriously... I'm still stuck on this one: Trump is a germaphobe and hates having to shake people's hands. Has anyone explained to him that the primary job of the US President is shaking people's hands?

Because he's not suicidal nor is he an evil genius. He sues everyone because it's easy to do and he can get away with it. To compare nuclear annihilation with a law suit is not balanced to say the least. Even if by some measure he really was that dumb I sincerely hope the men in woman in the US military would refuse such an order.

At best any threats of using nukes from trump is chicken talk from a chicken hawk. Don't buy the hype. Don't buy the fear mongering.

For that matter, he threatens to sue far more than he ever actually sues.

- - - Updated - - -

Trump has already declared that he wants to put 25k boots on the ground in the middle east, which is an enormous military movement. She's a warmonger because she voted for a war that pretty much every single other Senator voted for? Ok, what else? Every time people tell me why they think she's a warmonger, it's a very small list of incredibly weak evidence like that. There's been no evidence of recent aggressive international intent.

I mean if she's such a warmonger then surely the Republican base should be happy to vote for her?

- - - Updated - - -

Yea no. For all his rhetoric and idle talk does anybody actually think he would dk anything so remotely stupid? You people really bought that crap?

I think you'd have to be pretty gullible to believe a word Trump has said in this campaign.

Or ever, really. How much more obvious can he make it?

[Pangean]

Hmm. It appears the "Delegates should vote their conscience" part of the Anti-Trump group, that Trump says doesn't exist but Jeb Bush is its leader has a new member. Scott Walker.

Scott Walker: GOP Delegates Should 'Vote The Way They See Fit

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is following House Speaker Paul Ryan's (R-WI) lead in urging delegates to the Republican National Convention to vote their conscience on Donald Trump, according to The Capital Times.

Walker, who was critical of the presumptive nominee during the GOP primary, told reporters that he agreed with fellow Wisconsinite Ryan's advice that delegates should follow their gut.

"I think historically, and not just this year, delegates are able, are and should be able to vote the way they see fit," Walker said, according to the paper.

Walker said he would follow the rules of the Wisconsin GOP and cast his vote for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who won the Wisconsin primary and whom Walker endorsed before the senator dropped out.

The governor told reporters he's not totally sold on Trump yet because of his comments about U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel, but would "leave it up" to GOP leaders to decide how the convention will go.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewir...ote-conscience

[wowaccounttom]

enough boring discussions

[Atleastalittle]

I wonder what effect Trump losing or winning the election will have on the republican party.

[Height]

Can we just vote already? It's going to take forever until he inevitably loses in November.