Fivethirtyeight.com predicts 80% chance for Clinton victory

[Gaexion Ramza Beoulve]

Trump is bad, I mean really bad.

But Hillary is evil.

So your choice is Bad vs Evil.

CLARIFICATION: Hillary is the kind of person who would let a man die for nothing. Trump would kill a man (or hire someone to do so) if it would make him a dollar richer. In an odd way it is a classic american struggle. The grim reality real americans face, Not the fancy schmancy liberal/conservative narrative funneled into us by our corporate overlords, a true gut wrenching third-eye-opening lesser of two evils moral dilema.

[BuckSparkles]

Trump is bad, I mean really bad.

But Hillary is evil.

So your choice is Bad vs Evil.

It's night and day between Trump and Clinton. Trump is rough around the edges, but Clinton is straight up scary, like, legit.

People who refuse to see Clinton for what she is are in denial.

[Edge-]

It's night and day between Trump and Clinton. Trump is rough around the edges, but Clinton is straight up scary, like, legit.

People who refuse to see Clinton for what she is are in denial.

There's rough around the edges, then there's repeatedly vocally supporting torture (which is illegal) and advocating for the military to commit war crimes.

I think Trump is well past "rough around the edges" and onto straight crazypants, legitimately dangerous territory.

[Lenonis]

When you move away from the national polls and start looking at the state polls along with demographic polling and then finalize that with a dollop of the blue wall in the electoral map you have a situation where it's basically a no brainer to give Clinton winning odds in the race.

Unless Trump can win back something other than straight white relatively uneducated males...he will lose.
He's losing educated white men.
He's losing women.
He's losing gays.
He's losing blacks.
He's losing latinos.
He's losing asians.

It's not rocket science to look at that landscape and realize that doesn't bode well.

[Matchles]

Important thing to note here, Dukakis only started to lose his lead after the DNC. Something we still have to wait a month for...

Dukakis also had a competent opponent and a terribly run campaign. Everyone remembers the tank photo but I'd say it was his terrible death penalty answer in the debate that really did him in.

[mvaliz]

I love how white supremacist supporter Lockedout ignores every other poll in existence and posts the only one that matches his hopes... Much like how White Supremasists he sympsthizes with do.

[Lenonis]

Trump takes the lead.

Rasmussen reports is notoriously unreliable. Their polling methods are truly awful.

[Matchles]

Hillary Clinton is unqualified to be president.

So are you saying she isn't a natural born American citizen, isn't at least 35 years old or hasn't been a resident of the U.S. for the last 14 years?

[Rhinopotamus]

As I said in another thread

This is what I seen here over the past mo

Trump and Hillary tied on the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Trump is beating Hillary in the polls, Well its to Early polls don't matter

Hillary is beating Trump in the polls, OMFG POLLS MATTER THESE POLLS ARE SO FUCKING RIGHT AND COULD NEVER BE WRONG HILLARY HAS THIS WON FOR THE NEXT 8 YRS, POLLS DO MATTER NOW !!!!!!1111111ONE!!!!!!!

This. This for days

- - - Updated - - -

So are you saying she isn't a natural born American citizen, isn't at least 35 years old or hasn't been a resident of the U.S. for the last 14 years?

I don't think they allow the mentally retarded to run for President do they?

Wait my hangover from the last 8 years is wearing off... they do.. they did... yep. I wanna be somewhere that isn't here if she wins. Having the ability to help 39 Americans 90 minutes into a 13 hour scenario and making the conscious decision to not send even a plane 20 minutes across the Med.... is well... just incompetent on both of them.

[Baconeggcheese]

Hillary could shoot and kill on stage, not only would she not go to jail her fans would defend her saying this is why we need gun control and she was a victim of the NRA

I wonder if a comment like this stems from trump making a similar brag about himself and his supporters.

[Ripster42]

I wonder if a comment like this stems from trump making a similar brag about himself and his supporters.

I already linked the video of him saying it, lol.

[Rhinopotamus]

When you move away from the national polls and start looking at the state polls along with demographic polling and then finalize that with a dollop of the blue wall in the electoral map you have a situation where it's basically a no brainer to give Clinton winning odds in the race.

Unless Trump can win back something other than straight white relatively uneducated males...he will lose.
He's losing educated white men.
He's losing women.
He's losing gays.
He's losing blacks.
He's losing latinos.
He's losing asians.

It's not rocket science to look at that landscape and realize that doesn't bode well.

Actually half those you named is proven wrong. He is actually dominating three of them... but hey believe what you want.

[Edge-]

Actually half those you named is proven wrong. He is actually dominating three of them... but hey believe what you want.

Which 3? Last I checked, all current data from both primary voting and polling shows that he's losing with all those categories except for maybe educated white men. That one I'm not too sure on.

[BuckSparkles]

There's rough around the edges, then there's repeatedly vocally supporting torture (which is illegal) and advocating for the military to commit war crimes.

I think Trump is well past "rough around the edges" and onto straight crazypants, legitimately dangerous territory.

Torture against people like ISIS does not phase me, they deserve it and worse.
War Crimes I predict he will back off on. I do think penalizing the families of terrorists in some shape is a good idea though. These assholes are all ready to jump on board on the mass shooting / blowing themselves up. How will they react when they know there will be backlash against their families? Might be a bit more reluctant to do what they do.

So basically you are afraid because he might want to treat our enemies worse. Not sure if there is more to discuss with you on the subject.

[zenkai]

I wonder if a comment like this stems from trump making a similar brag about himself and his supporters.

Nope, I don't support trump and I haven't seen one rally.

[Tijuana]

Now, to answer your probable first question: fivethiryeight.com is an organization that takes national polls and compiles all data to make very VERY accurate predictions. They correctly predicted not only who won in 2012, but who would win each of the individual 50 state as well with 100% accuracy.

They stated the only time somebody ever blew this sort of lead was Mike Dukakas. Not to say its impossible to happen, but is unlikely at this point.

Nate Silver is the same guy that wrongly predicted everything regarding Trump, right? I'm not sure his methods have any credibility at all, given that fact.

How is it VERY VERY accurate to say Trump had no chance or was finished about 9 different times so far?

Also, the election hasn't even really started. Claiming there is any validity to polls when the actual voters have yet to make up their minds, is a little silly.

Sure, maybe Hillary wins big. But, there are a multitude of events that will occur between now and then that will truly shape this election that hasn't even started yet.

[Baconeggcheese]

Nope, I don't support trump and I haven't seen one rally.

Don't need to for it to stem from it :P

[Garnier Fructis]

Torture against people like ISIS does not phase me, they deserve it and worse.
War Crimes I predict he will back off on. I do think penalizing the families of terrorists in some shape is a good idea though. These assholes are all ready to jump on board on the mass shooting / blowing themselves up. How will they react when they know there will be backlash against their families? Might be a bit more reluctant to do what they do.

So basically you are afraid because he might want to treat our enemies worse. Not sure if there is more to discuss with you on the subject.

You all think this is a good idea only because you don't expect any of your family to turn terrorist. It's real fucking easy to say 'oh, we should punish these innocents because they're related to a terrorist' when you don't expect that to ever happen to you. Anyone who supports this and still considers themselves moral on any level should feel bad.

[Lenonis]

Which 3? Last I checked, all current data from both primary voting and polling shows that he's losing with all those categories except for maybe educated white men. That one I'm not too sure on.

Educated white men is very very close -- the last I heard Clinton has a small lead.

[Edge-]

Torture against people like ISIS does not phase me, they deserve it and worse.

Except the intelligence community and government agencies have repeatedly stated that it doesn't work and is a waste of time.

Not to mention that it's illegal, both in the US and UN. That's entirely ignoring the morality of the matter.

War Crimes I predict he will back off on.

The fact that he even think's it's something that's acceptable to advocate to begin with speaks volumes about his knowledge of international law, his moral compass (or complete lack thereof), and US military policy.

I do think penalizing the families of terrorists in some shape is a good idea though.

So their son runs away and joins an extremist group, they try to get him back because they don't want him harming others, and he blows himself up in an attack and in addition to the loss of their son you want to punish them? It's fucked up when families advocated/support members who join terrorist organizations, but that's for local law enforcement to handle, not the military. The military handles threats, not legal matters within other countries.

These assholes are all ready to jump on board on the mass shooting / blowing themselves up. How will they react when they know there will be backlash against their families? Might be a bit more reluctant to do what they do.

The exact same, if not worse. It will just give them another reason to hate the "Western devil".

So basically you are afraid because he might want to treat our enemies worse. Not sure if there is more to discuss with you on the subject.

No, I'm afraid he'll blatantly break international law, try to force the military to commit war crimes that they will not obey, and that he's unstable enough to try other shit too.

Holy shit, how do you not see how dangerous and scary these kinds of comments are?

Educated white men is very very close -- the last I heard Clinton has a small lead.

Yeah, IIRC it's gone back and forth a bit and I'm not sure where it stands now. The rest of those categories have been pretty solidly behind Clinton throughout.