Mafia #72: Heads of State. Game Thread

[Reticence]

Arialla might have blocked something N1. Hitting a traitor might explain another if the kill is the recruitment method, though I'm not sure mafia would target Blood Fox with a kill. There are three single-kill nights, though, right? SK vest is probably more likely than two traitors, but I wouldn't rule anything out.

Either way, we might be overthinking this. If someone else comes forward and claims one of last night's kills, we can probably be confident that one of them is the SK. If they don't, we can probably assume Virothe is town and the SK is hiding.

I'm coming back round to Crissi as a possibility, but I'm still not sure about anything.

We have Crissi's country, but not her role, right? Same for you, Xan?

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Why are you certain it means mafia killed danner and sk killed graeham instead of mafia killing graeham and sk killing danner?

Basing per comments from Reticence as well; strategic wise it would make sense for an SK to off Danner, and if Mafia was still flailing around looking for the SK that would explain killing Graeham.

Mrh, not quite what I said. I'm still having difficulty believing that scum would target Graeham instead of leaving him for lynchbait.

[shirokitsune]

Nevermind I guess if we use the nightly RP... that would explain basing it as mafia killing danner.

[Crissi]

Because Danner was certainly being active and town helpful. Graeham did try and push some, but seemed more often a bit confused, so I would think mafia would take out the more valuable target at that point. Already stated why a SK may have targeted Graeham.

As for my role, just a VT.

Also, migraine so I'm going to be sleeping half the time. I'll check every few hours.

[shirokitsune]

If I were going to base it off of a per-country listing

It would be uk/usa/turkey as allied/town.
Mexico and The Gambia as unknowns.

Which would mean suspicions on Crissi and Xanjori would be appropriate.

Looking at the wiki's (which aren't as helpful as all that)
Relations between The Gambia and the USA look to be strained, and recently The Gambia had repaired relations with China.
Relations between Mexico and the USA... well the wiki wasn't as helpful as all that, but I couldn't find anything suggesting great relations beyond NAFTA.

[Crissi]

The only real issues are with Donald Trump really( and any Republucans demonizing their citizens) Us and Mexico frequently work together on border security and drug trafficking monitoring. Also, Texas and Mexico get along great ( I know, I live in Texas), with Texas border towns being happy with Mexican visitor business.

Also I-35 always has tricks coming from Mecico -_- so much traffic!

[shirokitsune]

Also The Gambia withdrew from the Commonwealth of Nations stating "...it will never be a member of any neo-colonial institution and will never be a party to any institution that represents an extension of colonialism". Which would definitely seem to be unhappy relations with the UK.

The only mention of Turkey in it is a mention of pre '94 assistance in training and tech from US, UK, China, Nigeria and Turkey, but suggests that was ended after the '94 coup. Turkey, Pakistan and others have been listed as renewing assistance to The Gambian army...

[Reticence]

My read on both Shiro and Crissi is that if they are scum, they are mafia / traitors.

Looking back, I'm not sure why I thought this.

I think Shiro is actually unlikely to be a mafioso. Listo's flip had me doubting him again, but I forgot to factor Kryllian into that read, particularly with regards to D2. For the most part, Kryllian only voted on other mafiosi when they were about to be lynched. Shiro would be the outlier in this regard. I also feel that some of Shiro's posts, theories and questions would not have happened if he were on a team. The early breadcrumbing was a little weird; I generally find it more acceptable to breadcrumb characters than roles, but I'm unsure as to whether or not I should chalk this up to being new or laying groundwork for a claim. I also feel that he's diving a bit too far into the country claims for a game that appears to be mostly random, but I don't know whether to hold this against him or not.

As far as Crissi goes, she is my top pick if there is another mafioso due to my earlier case, and the evidence supplied by Danner and Listo. I don't really agree that she can't be the SK per Xanjori's rationale, either. That seems overly obvious.

Virothe struck me as scum early game when he replied to scrutiny with what I felt was unreasonable aggression. Having played scum with Virothe from time to time, I know that this is often his go-to strategy for getting someone off his tail. I also feel that the kills hit a point where they switched from low-activity players to trusted, vocal players, and while we can't be sure what each players was killed by, I could see Virothe following this general kill strategy. He, of course, has defended these points already, but I'm just trying to put all of my thoughts down at this point. Unfortunately, my read on Virothe really comes down to whether or not another killer comes forward to contest his claim as a town-aligned killer. If nobody does, I will assume that Virothe is town.

I've been conflicted about Xanjori all game. Every time my opinion shifts too far in one direction I find myself reading a post that pulls me back in the other. This makes sense for an SK, but it's not very concrete. Sometimes I got the feeling that he wasn't really paying attention to the game, and that he didn't care all that much about who we lynched. On the other hand, I vaguely recall a TPR vibe at some point. The Gambia is an interesting country claim, but it could very well mean nothing like the majority of the rest of the countries.

In summary, I can unfortunately make a case for any one of you being the SK, just as I'm sure that you can do the same for me. The only thing I can really argue is that I probably would have been less vocal and aggressive had I been the SK, to avoid getting picked off by the mafia. But WIFOM is WIFOM, so.

@Virothe:

What's your read on Shiro at this time?

[Xanjori]

People are trying far too hard to meta-game based on country. It's like Listos flip didn't teach people anything at all.

Also the only thing going for me RP-wise is that Blood Fox wanted to take over the whole of Africa, meaning I can't be on his team RP wise.

[Virothe]

Looking at the wiki's (which aren't as helpful as all that)

Ya basically what I've been doing is looking at the list of UN nations, Looking in to the nations recent history/politics then I look at the leader. If there isn't anything major on the wiki page I do a quick google search for something like "John Key corruption" "John Key scandal" and then I read a couple things and if they seem more like propaganda or seem kinda stupid like

OMG HE KNEW THAT THEY WERE REPLACING THE OLD LIMO'S WITH NEW ONES DURING A TIME OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN!

Then I pass over it with minor notes because unless there is a lot more to the story than he lied, or just didn't remember something so damn stupid I just don't think it would play a large roll.

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@Virothe:

What's your read on Shiro at this time?

I find him a bit scummy, He's constantly trying to fluff himself up as town but then does something that kinda throws that all off for me. I keep trying to equate it to him being a newer player but I'm not sure how long an excuse like that should remain a valid reason for not questioning him any further.

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Also the only thing going for me RP-wise is that Blood Fox wanted to take over the whole of Africa, meaning I can't be on his team RP wise.

Well he was a traitor so you if you are scum he wasn't necessarily on your side until you recruited him anyway. If scum was even able to recruit because the entire situation would be baring whether or not Mafia knew they had traitors. I've been in a few games where they never did, the mistborn game comes to mind.

[Xanjori]

I cant help but feel off about Shiro, opening the day with a vote when he believed that there was 1 SK and 1 Mafia left, that'd mean if those two voted (and he was town) they could force a mislynch. His play therefore was completely wrong for a town (he still hasn't unvoted.)

On top of that he is trying to use the RP as a basis for lynching. That's not playing, that's trying to find any excuse to get a lynch through on anyone.

[Virothe]

I cant help but feel off about Shiro, opening the day with a vote when he believed that there was 1 SK and 1 Mafia left, that'd mean if those two voted (and he was town) they could force a mislynch. His play therefore was completely wrong for a town (he still hasn't unvoted.)

On top of that he is trying to use the RP as a basis for lynching. That's not playing, that's trying to find any excuse to get a lynch through on anyone.

Ya more or less what I meant by I'm not sure when to stop excusing newness to the game as an excuse to not question him. He's clearly not playing a good game, but does that mean he's scum or does that mean he doesn't understand? But then people pointed out the fact that a mislynch might be a solid possibility with the low numbers needed and he still really hasn't changed what he's doing.

So I have this internal conflict on how I want to read his current style of play.

[Reticence]

While you both are here... @Virothe, can you give me your read on Xanjori?

@Xanjori, would you mind sharing your role, or did I miss that somewhere?

[Xanjori]

I claimed VT, President of Gambia.

[Reticence]

Ah. I had The Gambia, but I didn't remember the VT part. Very well, then.

[Virothe]

While you both are here... @Virothe, can you give me your read on Xanjori?

@Xanjori, would you mind sharing your role, or did I miss that somewhere?

I read Xanj much the same as I do you, I want to have faith that he is town. He's done a couple of things in my mind that I don't generally see him do in scum positions. But he's done some things that don't sit quite right with me either so I've been keeping a pretty weary eye on him.

You on the other hand, you're just to damn clean. I feel like somewhere along the way you should have taken a dent and I just don't see where that would have been. To see someone get this far in the game and play pretty much perfect town just makes me a slightly nervous because I have no reason to not trust you, but at the same time I struggle with the paranoia of you slitting my throat when I ask for a shave. Basically I envision you as Sweeney Todd right now.

[Reticence]

Hah. I can't say I've ever been depicted quite like that before. And, honestly, I'm a bit surprised that I'm alive, too. I fully expect that to change tonight if we fuck this up, though.

Looking back, it appears that Shiro and Crissi both distrust Xanjori the most.

You appear to distrust Shiro and Xan to various degrees. Did you throw out an opinion on Crissi that I missed? Which of the three do you distrust the most?

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Also, some would argue that my "dent" was going after Listo like I did and being completely wrong.

[Virothe]

Hah. I can't say I've ever been depicted quite like that before. And, honestly, I'm a bit surprised that I'm alive, too. I fully expect that to change tonight if we fuck this up, though.

Looking back, it appears that Shiro and Crissi both distrust Xanjori the most.

You appear to distrust Shiro and Xan to various degrees. Did you throw out an opinion on Crissi that I missed? Which of the three do you distrust the most?

Well if I take out the context of them being new players and look at them purely for their performance so far this game I would say my trust list from least to most trusted would go

Shiro
Crissi
Xanj

Taking in to context that they're new players and that I'm not quite sure of their playstyles as I would like to be. I would say it would be

Shiro
Xanj
Crissi

The main issue here is that I know Xanj as a player, so I feel like I have a solid enough read on him. Crissi I want to believe is town, but there's stuff there that just rubs me the wrong way.

With Shiro though he's made a LOT of mistakes and I can't just wrap them all up into the context that he's new to the game. I also kinda feel that some of the kills we've seen this game are a bit more from the perspective of someone whose newer to the game.

Not to mention how tunnel visioned he's gotten on targets that haven't added to a lot of constructive content for the thread. Like pushing me for days, Or looking at the RP instead of trying to give better perspective on his player reads.

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Then again for the kills, we've had a lot of new players this game so I can't really equate that to Shiro. But it's a reason why I don't feel I can vindicate keeping from questioning him any longer.

[Reticence]

I wish Danner hadn't ruled out a serial killer. I keep coming back to Crissi due to posts like (#899), but he based all of his reads on whether or not they were mafia.

Earlier on that page, Satsu says Crissi leans town for him and Shiro leans scum. Both of them had moderate trust for Xanjori.

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Day phase is half-over, if my clock-reading abilities are up to snuff. I'm currently leaning toward Shiro or Crissi. If I trust you, Virothe, then I have to factor that into my read on Xanjori (for today, anyway).

There is a part of me that wants to vote Crissi just to cover our bases, because two scum kills going into tonight would be devastating and she's the only player who could be either a serial killer or a mafioso (if there is one left).

On the other hand, it really weirded me out that Shiro asked about doctor protects, and I can't help but feel that he's been buddying up to me for the past few days. That vote sitting out there isn't helping.

For now, though, I need to actually get some work done. I'll be back later.

[Largehorn]

I was going to do a vote count... but like there's just one vote. I think y'all be capable of handling that much on your own. Then I was like: Self, you need to kill an NPC. But the more I thought about it the more I was like: Naaaaaaaaa, it's to hot to think of any witty ideas to kill NPCs. So instead I thought I would just post this for no reason.

[Virothe]

I wish Danner hadn't ruled out a serial killer. I keep coming back to Crissi due to posts like (#899), but he based all of his reads on whether or not they were mafia.

Earlier on that page, Satsu says Crissi leans town for him and Shiro leans scum. Both of them had moderate trust for Xanjori.

Everyone has moderate trust for Xanj, it seems like Xanj right now is just sitting in that weird neutral territory where no one can or wants to 100% read him one way or another.

I understand coming back to Crissi as well, but viewing neither Shiro or her as new players she just hasn't been as in your face about her own affiliation and she hasn't thrown everything and the sink at the wall hoping for something to stick so they can use it.

She pops in gives some context or an opinion and pops out. She could have attempted to lose herself in the background but hasn't she's been active enough to maintain a presence in the thread and I can appreciate that.

Shiro just unloads boatload after boatload and nothing he's done has added to a lot other than to attempt to vindicate himself and to me that just rubs as a more scummy form of play. But maybe I'm just reading in to it do the the bias of him having been pushing on me previously.