Republican Election 2016 - Donald Trump Megathread [OFFICIAL]

[Theodarzna]

Hillary Clinton and the Populist Revolt

At the same time, it isn’t possible to wait around for demography to turn millions of disenchanted Americans into relics and expect to live in a decent country. This election has told us that many Americans feel their way of life is disappearing. Perhaps their lament is futile—the world is inexorably becoming Thomas Friedman’s. Perhaps their nostalgia is misguided—multicultural America is more free and equal than the republic of Hamilton and Jefferson. Perhaps their feeling is immoral, implying ugly biases. But it shouldn’t be dismissed. If nearly half of your compatriots feel deeply at odds with the drift of things, it’s a matter of self-interest to try to understand why. Nationalism is a force that élites always underestimate—that’s been a lesson of the year’s seismic political events, here and in Europe. It can be turned to good or ill, but it never completely goes away. It’s as real and abiding as an attachment to family or to home. “Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo,” Trump declared in his convention speech. In his hands, nationalism is a loaded gun, aimed not just at foreigners but also at Americans who don’t make the cut. But people are not wrong to want to live in cohesive communities, to ask new arrivals to become part of the melting pot, and to crave a degree of stability in a moral order based on values other than just diversity and efficiency. A world of heirloom tomatoes and self-driving cars isn’t the true and only Heaven.

Late last year, President Obama sat down with his chief speechwriter, Cody Keenan. Obama told Keenan that, during his final year in office, he wanted to make an argument for American progress in the twenty-first century. He called it “an ode to reason, rationality, humility, and delayed gratification.” Throughout the year, in a kind of extended farewell address, Obama has been speaking around the country about tolerance, compromise, and our common humanity. He never states his theme directly, but it’s the values of liberal democracy. He is reacting to the unprecedented ugliness of Trump, but also to a larger sense that liberal values are always fragile, always in need of renewal, especially for a new generation with lowered expectations.

In May, at Howard University’s commencement, the President condemned the trend on college campuses of disinviting controversial speakers, and he told the graduating class, “We must expand our moral imaginations to understand and empathize with all people who are struggling, not just black folks who are struggling—the refugee, the immigrant, the rural poor, the transgender person, and, yes, the middle-aged white guy who you may think has all the advantages, but over the last several decades has seen his world upended by economic and cultural and technological change, and feels powerless to stop it. You got to get in his head, too.” In Dallas in July, at a memorial service for five murdered police officers, Obama described how black people experience the criminal-justice system in America, and said, “We can’t simply dismiss it as a symptom of political correctness or reverse racism. To have your experience denied like that, dismissed by those in authority, dismissed perhaps even by your white friends and co-workers and fellow church members again and again and again—it hurts. Surely we can see that, all of us.”

(source)

An examination of the Trump voter and the political problems of the Western world. I though this part was especially useful, though more for the Legion of Hillary supporters who also post here circlejerking about how "Deplorable," Trump voters are.

This piece is actually pro-Hillary Clinton. But it definitely isn't nice to Liberals or the Elite in this country.

[Endus]

Hillary Clinton and the Populist Revolt


(source)

An examination of the Trump voter and the political problems of the Western world. I though this part was especially useful, though more for the Legion of Hillary supporters who also post here circlejerking about how "Deplorable," Trump voters are.

This piece is actually pro-Hillary Clinton. But it definitely isn't nice to Liberals or the Elite in this country.

The central issue with the argument is that these people feel their way of life is "threatened" for the wrong reasons. In reductive point-form for the sake of brevity;

1> They have issues with gay rights, abortion rights, civil rights, etc, because they remember the heyday of the '50s when being a straight white dude was "better" than all those "others", and they want to bring back that position of privilege, which they see as "deserved". This is obviously racist, sexist, homophobic, etc, and doesn't bear referring to outside of this; while these people exist, they're wrong, and their views will deservedly die out.

2> They're workers in shrinking sectors, worried about future employability. The issue here is that they want to protect their employment, which would require protective measures that would impede economic growth and progress, which is bad. That doesn't mean they should be ignored, because they have a real issue, but the best solutions, IMO, involve a two-pronged approach; A> social support systems to ensure they don't face hardships, and B> retraining programs to get them into new sectors, including relocation funding where applicable for circumstances like mining towns where the mine shuts down (single-employer towns, basically). Not willing to retrain for a new type of work? Then you're not interested in solutions, you're just fearful of change.

Individuals ARE powerless to prevent change, for the most part, but they SHOULD be. And refusing to adapt to those changing circumstances is the problem, not the changing circumstances themselves. As long as we have a society that's supportive of that change, so it's not a huge impact on people's livelihood.

TLR; I'm sympathetic to people losing their jobs. I'm NOT sympathetic to people demanding the government protect their jobs from normal market shifts. Especially not when those same people claim to be for "smaller government".

[Spectral]

Worth pointing out that their more accurate polls+ model has Clinton at basically the highest odds she's seen all race.

I'm showing her peaking at 84.6% right at Debate 3 and slipping to 78.9% in the current projection. That's a small but non-negligible change.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

I'm showing her peaking at 84.6% right at Debate 3 and slipping to 78.9% in the current projection. That's a small but non-negligible change.

To be fair a lot of pollster are trying tracking polls and those are hurting her numbers like the la times is proven bullshit. IBD is showing a shift towards Clinton but she's going down across the board. The tracking polls have methodologically issues and I hope they take a backseat or go through some major changes for the next election. The morning star poll has Hillary trending downwards and shows us a trend towards Trump which is expected but they're all over the places and skewing predictions.

We've never had this many before.

[Wells]

I'm showing her peaking at 84.6% right at Debate 3 and slipping to 78.9% in the current projection. That's a small but non-negligible change.

Oh bleh, duh. Point being though that her "decline" still puts her substantially ahead.

[Garnier Fructis]

To be fair a lot of pollster are trying tracking polls and those are hurting her numbers like the la times is proven bullshit. IBD is showing a shift towards Clinton but she's going down across the board. The tracking polls have methodologically issues and I hope they take a backseat or go through some major changes for the next election. The morning star poll has Hillary trending downwards and shows us a trend towards Trump which is expected but they're all over the places and skewing predictions.

We've never had this many before.

There's nothing wrong with tracking polls as a whole. People are going nuts over the polls in the last few days and suddenly finding methodological errors when they were perfectly content not to question them over the last few months. The problem is that people are forgetting that any given poll has error and variance, and that if you take enough polls you'll eventually get one that's many standard deviations away from the rest. That doesn't mean it's bad, and you shouldn't throw it out because of that.

I really would rather we not stoop to the level of the Trumpers by questioning validity of polls we have previously accepted when they start to show results we don't like.

[Belize]

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/

They are a fun bunch.

I alwayd assumed r/The_Donald was where people rejected from /pol/ went to shitpost

[GennGreymane]

Sooooo..... what do we know of the woman who tried to vote twice?

[Wells]

Sooooo..... what do we know of the woman who tried to vote twice?

Trump supporter who tried to vote twice because she was worried about voter fraud.

Yeah.

[GennGreymane]

Trump supporter who tried to vote twice because she was worried about voter fraud.

Yeah.

prob paid off by some DNC ppl, lets check the emails.

[Belize]

Sooooo..... what do we know of the woman who tried to vote twice?

She was a good upstandint citizen doing everything in her power to rightfully get Trump into the presidency, and Clinton in jail

[JohnBrown1917]

I alwayd assumed r/The_Donald was where people rejected from /pol/ went to shitpost

Sadly, they are serious.

[Moralgy]

I'm showing her peaking at 84.6% right at Debate 3 and slipping to 78.9% in the current projection. That's a small but non-negligible change.

It really only matters how Pennsylvania votes tbh. That is the one state people should be watching. If it starts to flip that is when Clinton should get worried.

I bet Ohio is happy to not be the one everyone gives a shit about this election for the first time in forever.

[Varvara Spiros Gelashvili]

There's nothing wrong with tracking polls as a whole. People are going nuts over the polls in the last few days and suddenly finding methodological errors when they were perfectly content not to question them over the last few months. The problem is that people are forgetting that any given poll has error and variance, and that if you take enough polls you'll eventually get one that's many standard deviations away from the rest. That doesn't mean it's bad, and you shouldn't throw it out because of that.

I really would rather we not stoop to the level of the Trumpers by questioning validity of polls we have previously accepted when they start to show results we don't like.

I questioned the la times poll because it has bad methodically but they're all telling us different trends and I think that's an issue.

[Wyrt]

Ooh, that subreddit is fun.
Time to troll!



These people. My sides.

If they release all 33k emails all at once it's going to be hard for people to look through them all. Especially since probably most of them are just going to be standard communication. "Oh no, Hillary didn't want tomato on her BLT! Clearly unfit for presidency!"

[Garnier Fructis]

I questioned the la times poll because it has bad methodically but they're all telling us different trends and I think that's an issue.

The LA times has wonky weights, but the weights are irrelevant compared to the trends that we can glean from it. And trends aren't determined on the basis of a few days worth of polling.

[Cyberowl]

If they release all 33k emails all at once it's going to be hard for people to look through them all. Especially since probably most of them are just going to be standard communication. "Oh no, Hillary didn't want tomato on her BLT! Clearly unfit for presidency!"

Who knows; the most damning email had her trash talking Doctor Who. Just imagine she shit talked GoT or TWD. It would be her end.

[Wyrt]

Hillary doesn't eat a BLT because she is a Muslim, duuuh, you have got to keep up with the news.

Goddamnit: You've been banned from participating in /r/The_Donald
That was quick.

Oh no! You violated their safe space and got banned!

[Captain N]

Hillary doesn't eat a BLT because she is a Muslim, duuuh, you have got to keep up with the news.

Goddamnit: You've been banned from participating in /r/The_Donald
That was quick.

Good job man. You violated their safe space!

Oh no! You violated their safe space and got banned!

Damn you! *shakes fist*

[Masark]

If they release all 33k emails all at once it's going to be hard for people to look through them all. Especially since probably most of them are just going to be standard communication. "Oh no, Hillary didn't want tomato on her BLT! Clearly unfit for presidency!"

Which just means they can Gish gallop and make whatever claims they like and people won't be able to go through the emails to disprove them quickly enough.