Republican Election 2016 - Donald Trump Megathread [OFFICIAL]

[PACOX]

Shit, if either party managed to field a decent candidate this year they'd win in a landslide.

People said that in 2012 too.

[cubby]

The 1980 election when Reagan won , the polls had them in a dead heat tie before the election. So it would have been a tough one I assume. But Reagan of course won handily.

Yeah, totally right.

Reagan in '84 - Mondale was cute, but Reagan had it sown up - set a record for carrying the most states.

Bush in '88 was a joke - Dufuckis. Another no brainer.

Clinton in '92 - tight primary for awhile but Clinton ran away with it in the end. Bush was self destructing towards the end of October (no new taxes).

Clinton in '96 - Duh (I mean Dole) no contest.

Bush in '00 - tightest race since Kennedy. A verified guess there would be worth something.

Bush in '04 - I'm too biased on this one.

Obama in '08 - no brainer after the DNC primary.

Obama in '12 - closer, but still not tight and not a real surprise unless you were feeding Romney poll information.

So 5-7 easy calls. One impossible ('00). 0-2 others tough.

Definitely open to interpretation. Thoughts?

[Ghostpanther]

Yeah, totally right.

Reagan in '84 - Mondale was cute, but Reagan had it sown up - set a record for carrying the most states.

Bush in '88 was a joke - Dufuckis. Another no brainer.

Clinton in '92 - tight primary for awhile but Clinton ran away with it in the end. Bush was self destructing towards the end of October (no new taxes).

Clinton in '96 - Duh (I mean Dole) no contest.

Bush in '00 - tightest race since Kennedy. A verified guess there would be worth something.

Bush in '04 - I'm too biased on this one.

Obama in '08 - no brainer after the DNC primary.

Obama in '12 - closer, but still not tight and not a real surprise unless you were feeding Romney poll information.

So 5-7 easy calls. One impossible ('00). 0-2 others tough.

Definitely open to interpretation. Thoughts?

Good analysis. But the professor did get the 2 tough ones called right.

Hillary still has the upper hand and it is going to be a uphill battle for Trump. It may boil down to the number of turnouts for each candidate.

[Merkava]

Good analysis. But the professor did get 2 of the tough ones called right.

Hillary still has the upper hand and it is going to be a uphill battle for Trump. It may boil down to the number of turnouts for each candidate.

I think the first debate will reset everything. It may snap back to what I think will stabilize to a 4-6 pt lead for Hillary by election day, but I think the first debate could be pivotal. But I've been colossally wrong about nearly everything this election cycle, so take that for what it's worth.

[Ghostpanther]

I think the first debate will reset everything. It may snap back to what I think will stabilize to a 4-6 pt lead for Hillary by election day, but I think the first debate could be pivotal. But I've been colossally wrong about nearly everything this election cycle, so take that for what it's worth.

You may be right. But personally in my opinion, unless one candidate clearly fails, I really do not think the first debate will matter that much. It is the last one most people will have fresh on their minds when they go to the polls. In the 2012 debates, Romney won the first one handily, the second one was basically a tie, but the last one, Obama won pretty convincingly.

[cubby]

Good analysis. But the professor did get the 2 tough ones called right.

Depending on when he locked in his prediction, that's mildly impressive.

Hillary still has the upper hand and it is going to be a uphill battle for Trump. It may boil down to the number of turnouts for each candidate.

I agree - and I think she has from the beginning. There has to be a full doctoral thesis (or more) in how Trump has completely upturned the tables on this entire election season - if had any real meat to him Hillary would be in big trouble. As it stands, I'm seeing more and more media coming out and labeling Trump for what he truly is - a pathological liar and a sociopath megalomaniac (that's all the terms I could get in one set there, lol). His true colors are finally flying and the media might be now realizing how much their "honest" reporting has propped him up.

The debate should be interesting but nobody thinks Trump is ready for a serious policy discussion - so it will be another "GOP candidate showing up and not puking" standard. Trump has yet to personally lay out one significant, and detailed, policy plan. I don't see that changing.

Then there is the plethora of scandals currently surrounding him - and seeming to increase almost daily. I think we've passed 10 now.

Did you see Cruz came out and said he'd be voting for Trump?

[Thepersona]

Lol! So true. I can say honestly, with myself, it is making a choice between two crappy ones and deciding which one is crappier.

gosh, yeah... a kasich or ron paul (for the repubs) or warren, or even biden (for the dems) would have obliterated the competition

I think the first debate will reset everything. It may snap back to what I think will stabilize to a 4-6 pt lead for Hillary by election day, but I think the first debate could be pivotal. But I've been colossally wrong about nearly everything this election cycle, so take that for what it's worth.

i think that hillary will win by a 3-4 point lead in the popular vote, but the thing is, we must see the electoral votes, they're much more important (i'm looking at the 00' election here)

[mvaliz]

You may be right. But personally in my opinion, unless one candidate clearly fails, I really do not think the first debate will matter that much. It is the last one most people will have fresh on their minds when they go to the polls. In the 2012 debates, Romney won the first one handily, the second one was basically a tie, but the last one, Obama won pretty convincingly.

You have that backwards, the last debate is the least important as by that time you already got agood feel of their debating skills and the major issue discussed... and thus its just boring by then.

This first debate is crucial as it will be our first impressions of each other face-to-face. A new anonly time to make a good first impression.

[Vilendor]

You may be right. But personally in my opinion, unless one candidate clearly fails, I really do not think the first debate will matter that much. It is the last one most people will have fresh on their minds when they go to the polls. In the 2012 debates, Romney won the first one handily, the second one was basically a tie, but the last one, Obama won pretty convincingly.

I think Hillary will miserably fail. She and her crew don't understand that the SJW/feminist/PC agenda is over it's peak and is in decline, people are irritated by it, the average hardworking Joes are tired for being called deplorableracistfuckingwhitecismales for no reason at all.

I'm 100% sure she will keep pushing this rhetoric and narrative on the debate. Trump will talk about his plans and programs (no matter how bad or stupid they are) meanwhile she will scream racism and sexism in her every sentence.

[PACOX]

I think Hillary will miserably fail. She and her crew don't understand that the SJW/feminist/PC agenda is over it's peak and is in decline, people are irritated by it, the average hardworking Joes are tired for being called deplorableracistfuckingwhitecismales for no reason at all.

I'm 100% sure she will keep pushing this rhetoric and narrative on the debate. Trump will talk about his plans and programs (no matter how bad or stupid they are) meanwhile she will scream racism and sexism in her every sentence.

She didn't call the average Joe deplorable, unless that person thinks they are deplorable...

[Wells]

I think Hillary will miserably fail. She and her crew don't understand that the SJW/feminist/PC agenda is over it's peak and is in decline, people are irritated by it, the average hardworking Joes are tired for being called deplorableracistfuckingwhitecismales for no reason at all.

That's certainly a hell of a narrative.

[LilSaihah]

She didn't call the average Joe deplorable, unless that person thinks they are deplorable...

She called the average Trump supporter deplorable, and she's not the only one doing it. That's just the ultimate expression of the frustration the average person has with this SJW safespaces bullshit.

[Macaquerie]

She called the average Trump supporter deplorable, and she's not the only one doing it. That's just the ultimate expression of the frustration the average person has with this SJW safespaces bullshit.

Realistically, the deplorables comment was probably calculated. The Democratic base is always ragging on her for trying to run out the clock on the election and not taking any real swings at the Trump campaign, and that was pretty perfectly timed to energize her supporters since that's exactly what they have thought all along.

And Hillary is far from the only one who thinks Trump supporters are deplorable, the Republican establishment definitely agrees with her, as do most independents and people from around the world. Hell, even the Trump campaign probably doesn't have much regard for its own supporters.

[PACOX]

She called the average Trump supporter deplorable, and she's not the only one doing it. That's just the ultimate expression of the frustration the average person has with this SJW safespaces bullshit.

Once again, she did not call the average person deplorable. The people she did call deplorable are not what you consider the average American, unless an average American decides to identify with the deplorables.

And if more than just are calling out Trump's voting base then maybe there is something to be said about it?

[Daerio]

That's only on the federal level though. They can't do anything with local laws. If you notice, during these investigations of the police shootings, the justice department looks at "civil rights violations".

Local and state police are controlled locally (mostly, there's a few exceptions, like Kansas City's local police are controlled by the state, but that's a rarity), and that's actually a really important facet of the US democracy.

Edit: For claritys sake, the federal government can look at laws and determine if they're constitutional, look at the application of law enforcement and determine if it's constitutional, and look at the actions of police and determine if it's constitutional.

They can't force local police to enforce federal law. It's not their (the local police's) job. The feds cannot force the local cops in Denver to arrest people for smoking pot even though it is legal locally, (the feds themselves can technically go in and do it because it's still illegal federally, but they've wisely chosen not to).

So you guys seem to think oversight is the same thing as "who makes the law" or "who appoints the police commissioner", I think a refresher on what oversight actually means is in order. I know we haven't had real oversight over any authority in this country in a while, but that doesn't mean you guys shouldn't at least know what it means.

[Vilendor]

How dare they call the anti-PC brigade names! Don't they know that they are soft, tender, and take grave offense at anything remotely against them?

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

Meanwhile the truth is that it looks like a giraffe, swims like a rock, and quacks like a fox, and you still call it duck because these days some people think that calling names and labeling people count as argument.

Nope.

[Breccia]

these days some people think that calling names and labeling people count as argument.

You mean like Lyin' Ted and Crooked HIllary, which has been Trump's modus oporandi since nearly Day One?

[mvaliz]

I think Hillary will miserably fail. She and her crew don't understand that the SJW/feminist/PC agenda is over it's peak and is in decline, people are irritated by it, the average hardworking Joes are tired for being called deplorableracistfuckingwhitecismales for no reason at all.

I'm 100% sure she will keep pushing this rhetoric and narrative on the debate. Trump will talk about his plans and programs (no matter how bad or stupid they are) meanwhile she will scream racism and sexism in her every sentence.

Yup - that's right... Global Warming isn't an issue, Vaccinations isn't an issue, his wanton option to use Nuclear weapons isn't an issue, his stupid wall isn't an issue, his wanton choice to throw out the 1st ammendment in favor of being able to sue anybody who insults him isn't an issue, lets throw out Education reform, Medical reform and minimum wage reform while we're at it... apparently to you, NONE of that is as important as not being labled a racist/sexist/bigot. THAT is the only important issue to you?

...jesus fuking christ...

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She called the average Trump supporter deplorable, and she's not the only one doing it. That's just the ultimate expression of the frustration the average person has with this SJW safespaces bullshit.

But... if they're offended by being called "Deplorable"... doesn't that make them the SJWs??

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You mean like Lyin' Ted and Crooked HIllary, which has been Trump's modus oporandi since nearly Day One?

My favorite is when they call me out for me referring to Donald Dump's last name as "Dump" as being childish - i got so sick of explaining the joke behind it that explains their hypocrisy that I had to change my entire sig to help explain it. :P

[Cthulhu 2020]

Good analysis. But the professor did get the 2 tough ones called right.

Hillary still has the upper hand and it is going to be a uphill battle for Trump. It may boil down to the number of turnouts for each candidate.

Take a good read of the article, and the 13 questions or criteria he uses to predict. Trump only leads by a question or two in his 13 criteria, and one of those criteria is "is the incumbent party candidate charismatic." To which he answers no, and I imagine many others would say no, but others might say yes to. So a couple of his criteria are even subjective. He also admits in the interview that Trump has done a lot of stuff to hurt his chances that have nothing to do with the 13 criteria. He says there are many factors this election that have never appeared in any past election.

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Totally no name calling and labeling going on on your end

"Omg the PC safe space crowd is so easily offended!"

"Stop pointing out the truth, it offends me!"

These people are always good for a laugh.

[Kraenen]

Once again, she did not call the average person deplorable. The people she did call deplorable are not what you consider the average American, unless an average American decides to identify with the deplorables.

And if more than just are calling out Trump's voting base then maybe there is something to be said about it?

"Muslim is not a religion, it's an ideology"... Well, I guess he was sort of right. It is an ideology. And in fact it goes to show liberals that Trumpers can be against Islam/Muslims while not even thinking about race.

I mean he was pretty vehement about it. It would be easy in that scenario to get really racist wouldn't it?