What's going to happen to Ukraine?

[Deleted]

The Russians for some strange reason are still butthurt about the break up of Yugoslavia, and they seem to be obsessed to break up Ukraine to replicate Yugoslavia.

There is absolutely no chance in hell another pro Russian government would ever take power in Kiev. This means Moscow is now trying to dismember Ukraine bit by bit, assuming control of pro Russian regions. In the process Russia can flex its muscles, remind it's own populace of the "Glory Days" and poke a finger at the West.

If I were POTUS, there would already be NATO tanks/bases/nukes in Ukraine.

ISIS, Islamic Terrorism, China etc. all pathetic distractions. Russia on the other hand... Russia needs to stop existing in its current form. And any and all means should be used to achieve that, short of WMD's or invasion.

Sure.

Anything on topic?

[Mihalik]

Sure.

Anything on topic?

I already answered, Ukraine is getting Balkanized. Not much that can stop it at this time short of a full scale NATO intervention+peacekeeping force.

[Shalcker]

I already answered, Ukraine is getting Balkanized. Not much that can stop it at this time short of a full scale NATO intervention+peacekeeping force.

But having one didn't stop Kosovo independence... so i don't see why you think that would help.

[swdan]

All of Ukraine is Russian, it's birthplace of Russia, those in western part were conquered by catholic countries n became Catholic-Russians, but cuz they got change of church want to pretend they are a different people. Sort of Ukraine is Russia's northern Ireland.
Those catholics know deep down that they r Russian so are so touchy about it they want to forcibly make everyone who haven't stopped identifying as Russian to change n pretend too.
Ukraine means borderlands never has been an ethnic term.

Western Ukraine has no right to southern n eastern part of country when they want to force people to stop identifying as Russian.

cool story, bro
so now you are telling me that i am russian lol

as ukrainian i'd say that totally nothing will happen.

some fun facts:
1) Minsk is not possible to implement
2) the "inter" drama is lol. anti-state propaganda have nothing in common with journalists so the idea of actual removing that p.c of f.k from Ukraine is widely supported here in Kyiv.
3) federalization wont happen. ever. there are no reasons for it. forget it
4) there were no ceasefire during this ukraine-russia war
5) corruption fight eventually... failing.
6) 60+ billion dolars that were stolen during 2011-2014 still hidden somewhere. seems like nobody cares
7) soviet union is dead and alredy rotten. bury it plx

a whole world must learn:
1) never sign agreements with russia.
2) green men are good while squished with tanks
3) selling own homeland for 20-50$ is bad. dont do it. (hello goes to donbas)

wanna more fun facts?

[Deleted]

cool story, bro
so now you are telling me that i am russian lol

as ukrainian i'd say that totally nothing will happen.

some fun facts:
1) Minsk is not possible to implement
2) the "inter" drama is lol. anti-state propaganda have nothing in common with journalists so the idea of actual removing that p.c of f.k from Ukraine is widely supported here in Kyiv.
3) federalization wont happen. ever. there are no reasons for it. forget it
4) there were no ceasefire during this ukraine-russia war
5) corruption fight eventually... failing.
6) 60+ billion dolars that were stolen during 2011-2014 still hidden somewhere. seems like nobody cares
7) soviet union is dead and alredy rotten. bury it plx

a whole world must learn:
1) never sign agreements with russia.
2) green men are good while squished with tanks
3) selling own homeland for 20-50$ is bad. dont do it. (hello goes to donbas)

wanna more fun facts?

See @Mavett?
Once you BUILD public opinion like they did with this gentleman, what's left? I mean, will this guy just accept an apology and back you go trading with Russia? I don't think so.
The damage done in Ukraine is astronomical. Criminals became heroes and propaganda keeps on being used to hide the new government inability to change the political scenario (how could it change the political scenario? Poroshenko himself is "old school" politics in Ukraine).
And the more they keep on going, the more divided their society gets.

[Crispin]

Page 1:

Which is what your link says.
So what are you on about?

The EU deal requires reforms and cuts. Have you paid attention to the posts in here? Increase in gas prices and adjusting their industry standards, for example.

Your claim was that there were no reforms in sight, you were wrong regardless of how crappy a job they were doing.

And are you saying that increased tariffs on gas was enough to drop the EU? Laughable, be more concrete, ofcourse the EU requires significant reforms for a country like Ukraine, includibg fighting corruption.

[Deleted]

Your claim was that there were no reforms in sight, you were wrong regardless of how crappy a job they were doing.

And are you saying that increased tariffs on gas was enough to drop the EU? Laughable, be more concrete, ofcourse the EU requires significant reforms for a country like Ukraine, includibg fighting corruption.

We can resume the discussion when you've calmed down.

[Ulmita]

a whole world must learn:
1) never sign agreements with russia.
2) green men are good while squished with tanks
3) selling own homeland for 20-50$ is bad. dont do it. (hello goes to donbas)

wanna more fun facts?

4)Divide and Conquer works!

I never thought Slavs were idiotic enough to fall for the same shit they are doing in middle east for decades, but hey i was wrong.

[Crispin]

What makes you think that I'm not calm? I've no emotional investments in Ukraine at all, I'm merely surprised by your rather lacking arguments, which leads me to belive that you feel the EU deal was too harsh, altho your arguments for that feeling is vague at best, but it was obvious that you had no idea pages ago when you began dodging.

[Hound Archon]

Russia needs to stop existing in its current form. And any and all means should be used to achieve that, short of WMD's or invasion.

So you do admit that you are a threat, huh.

[Mavett]

See @Mavett?
Once you BUILD public opinion like they did with this gentleman, what's left? I mean, will this guy just accept an apology and back you go trading with Russia? I don't think so.
The damage done in Ukraine is astronomical. Criminals became heroes and propaganda keeps on being used to hide the new government inability to change the political scenario (how could it change the political scenario? Poroshenko himself is "old school" politics in Ukraine).
And the more they keep on going, the more divided their society gets.

Well i guess he prefers endless debt and austerity, best of luck to him.
Soon on the Menu, Pride soup.

[Elim Garak]

For overly "patriotic" Ukrainians joining the EU is the "get out of the Ukraine card", hence they will agree to any conditions just to get out of the Ukraine and move to another EU country, like UK, which is not really patriotic. Sadly UK is about to leave EU. They are running outta time!

[Deleted]

What makes you think that I'm not calm? I've no emotional investments in Ukraine at all, I'm merely surprised by your rather lacking arguments, which leads me to belive that you feel the EU deal was too harsh, altho your arguments for that feeling is vague at best, but it was obvious that you had no idea pages ago when you began dodging.

Mmmh perhaps the fact that even though I quoted what I said in the first page, you kept saying that

Your claim was that there were no reforms in sight

Even though it wasn't.
Or perhaps the fact that I never said Ukraine shoud have "dropped the EU". And yet you imply I did, in your emotional post above.

And are you saying that increased tariffs on gas was enough to drop the EU?

Nevermind then, how you deal with the FACT that EU requirements are pretty strict.

Ukraine's top diplomat in Brussels says his country rejects any kind of pre-conditions for the signature of its Association Agreement with the EU ahead of the leadership summit to be held on Monday.

Ambassador Kostiantyn Yelisieiev's statement appears to be a response to Brussels' demands that Ukraine should respond to three conditions before the agreement could b signed.
Štefan Füle, commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, recently repeated in Kyiv the three conditions for the signature, including judicial reforms.
Yelisieiev said his country fails to understand why conditions are imposed on Ukraine.

---

In the long term, the EU agreement is supposed to bring a boost. The country's producers will have free access to the world's biggest free trade area.
EU rules and stipulations should also improve Ukraine's business climate as a whole. The country will be required to introduce wide-ranging reforms - increasing transparency, reducing corruption and raising the quality of its output.
But in the short term, this will cause a great deal of pain and disruption, as local businesspeople struggle to make the change. Complicating matters is the fact that many don't know what exactly they will need to do.

---

Since 2013, the CSLR have been documenting growing levels of state repression of peaceful protests by Ukrainians fighting for social, economic and civil rights. In our collective view, the Association Agreement’s core component, the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), is premature and problematic and will only benefit a number of Ukraine’s elite at a cost to the majority.
The DCFTA demands almost full abolition of tariffs for trade in goods, extensive liberalisation to allow for enhanced market access for European service providers, and enhanced protection for foreign investors and liberalisation of capital flows. What this means is a complete opening up of Ukraine’s economy to competition from powerful European multinationals, at a time when Ukraine’s domestic economy is in no condition to hold its own.
Many key sectors in Ukraine, notably industrial production, are traditionally oriented towards exporting to Russia and the other states of the Eurasian customs union, based on Russian standards of production. These sectors will struggle to reorient themselves towards exporting to the EU because standards differ widely. The economy as a whole suffers from a crisis in innovative development and requires urgent injections of capital to pay for new technologies and to modernise existing equipment. However, domestic prospects for innovative development remain limited because of cuts to research and development budgets.
While Ukraine’s exports used to mainly comprise of high-tech goods destined for the Russian market, the new orientation towards the EU is already leading to a rise in the export of raw materials and agrofood products. The exports to the EU only partially compensate the loss of exports to the former Soviet states, because of the larger share of lower value added unprocessed goods . Deindustrialisation of the economy looms. The balance of payments is set to worsen, as is Ukraine’s gross external debt, which rose from 88% in 2014 to 155% of GDP in 2016.

So... yes, I really don't want to get involved in a shitflinging fest, thank you.
If you want to have a discussion stop twisting stuff to your likings.

[Crispin]

Probably the part related to the huge changes Ukraine society and economy is requested to go through in order to get finances going?
Just to give an example, there's a pro eu government in Ukraine now and still no reforms in sight.

I'm simply replying to what you wrote a few pages ago, I'm not interested in any kind of "shitflinging" either, but merely pointed out that what you wrote was incorrect, furthermore you seemed to agree with Caervek that the reforms required to join the EU were too harsh (I might have missunderstood and apologise if I did), and were curios to which parts you think were so extreme that turning down the EU deal was the right choice, if you think they're strict you must know which parts exactly, apparently Caervek decided to dodge answering that aswell.

The fact that Ukraine would have to reform is not a surprise to anyone or them, and if they want to become a EU member they'll have to like everyone else have done, ofcourse reforming takes time and they'll be strict if a country like Ukraine is going to have access to the single market, it's a long term plan, the EU can't turn Ukraine into Poland in 5 years.


And please drop the emotional stuff, not quite sure what you're trying to accomplish other than dodging the actual discussion.

[Shalcker]

The fact that Ukraine would have to reform is not a surprise to anyone or them, and if they want to become a EU member they'll have to like everyone else have done, ofcourse reforming takes time and they'll be strict if a country like Ukraine is going to have access to the single market, it's a long term plan, the EU can't turn Ukraine into Poland in 5 years.

EU can't turn Ukraine into Poland period. In current EU situation it is flat out impossible.

[Crispin]

EU can't turn Ukraine into Poland period. In current EU situation it is flat out impossible.

I was implying that positive changes takes a long time.

[Deleted]

I'm simply replying to what you wrote a few pages ago, I'm not interested in any kind of "shitflinging" either, but merely pointed out that what you wrote was incorrect, furthermore you seemed to agree with Caervek that the reforms required to join the EU were too harsh (I might have missunderstood and apologise if I did), and were curios to which parts you think were so extreme that turning down the EU deal was the right choice, if you think they're strict you must know which parts exactly, apparently Caervek decided to dodge answering that aswell.

The fact that Ukraine would have to reform is not a surprise to anyone or them, and if they want to become a EU member they'll have to like everyone else have done, ofcourse reforming takes time and they'll be strict if a country like Ukraine is going to have access to the single market, it's a long term plan, the EU can't turn Ukraine into Poland in 5 years.


And please drop the emotional stuff, not quite sure what you're trying to accomplish other than dodging the actual discussion.

Yes the reforms would be damaging to Ukraine’s economy short term, as described in that quote above.. Whether or not they become beneficial long term depends on how fast the new government manages to change things. So far, nothing points at the government succeeding in this task.

As your link said, this has already happened in the "orange revolution" of 2004. Which lead to the election of yanukovich. Kind of telling isn't it.

- - - Updated - - -

I was implying that positive changes takes a long time.

Without the proper setup, positive changes are not guaranteed at all.

- - - Updated - - -

Well i guess he prefers endless debt and austerity, best of luck to him.
Soon on the Menu, Pride soup.

Pride soup and Patriot bread. Mmmmmmhmmmh.

[Keeponrage]

See @Mavett?
Once you BUILD public opinion like they did with this gentleman, what's left? I mean, will this guy just accept an apology and back you go trading with Russia? I don't think so.
The damage done in Ukraine is astronomical. Criminals became heroes and propaganda keeps on being used to hide the new government inability to change the political scenario (how could it change the political scenario? Poroshenko himself is "old school" politics in Ukraine).
And the more they keep on going, the more divided their society gets.

don't worry. These internet ukrowarriors are so determined only in internet. In reality, they flood russian and eu markets of unskilled workers, janitors and prostitutes. Oh yeah, and TV show actors, who were so against Russia and up for Maidan at starters, but still keep filming for Russian TV.

So, really, don't worry. It will all settle down sooner or later with the most active maidanites, who'd dare to open their mouth once again, trampled into the ground by Ukranians themselves.

[Escariot]

their government is literally being run by jews, like that bald f**k

what do you think is gonna happen

[Deleted]

Did Putin organise Maidan?

What does that have to do with it? Putin's actions were a result of the protests. He saw an opportunity to punish a former satellite nation and annex some land, so he took it.

SE Ukraine always had a strong russian minority.

No, not really. Nut until Russia started supporting separatism in the region.

It's not something that popped up after Maidan. There were anti Maidan protests organised from day 1.
Anyway that's beside the point, as I wanted to discuss the future of Ukraine and not its past.

You mean protests paid by the Party of Regions, which is pretty much anti-EU, homophobic and a proxy for the Russian government? I'd be shocked if they didn't.