Originally Posted by
Voij
This discussion reminds me of the Gambler's Fallacy. Yes, the n-th reroll will be worse than having used Run Through n times. That, however, is not the situation you are facing when actually playing.
When you are playing, your choice is not "reroll x times or use x Run Throughs", it is "reroll or use Run Through". [Quick note: This is only the case outside of AR+CotDB, where you give up on rerolling in order to maximise number of Run Throughs.]
Whenever you need to choose between rerolling or using Run Through, rerolling is the bigger damage increase if you had a bad single-buff.
If you want, you can calculate how much each specific 2+ buff is worth, then multiply it by the chance it has to appear, then calculate the in total damage done between this 2+ buff and the single buff you had.
It gets slightly more difficult when you need to factor in the damage your 1-buff grants you based on time it has left, but that's what these Sims have done and it's how we managed to end up with these reroll-guidelines.