Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Mykk]

If only we could know where the items dropped somehow and what the chances of them dropping was, you know like it used to before this warforging random socket bullshit started this whole mess.

Past week i've been spamming blizzard bug report with my progress and ill keep spamming till they change the system. All players should spam it. Send multiple reports per day each day just to annoy them. :P

- - - Updated - - -

22 hours on my alt warrior. Got second legendary today. Doing only WQ on him.

http://imgur.com/a/GDP5N

Did they buff drop rate ?

Probably not because its been like this since 7.1. Fresh characters get 2 first legendaries extremely fast while players who are with 3-5 legendaries will have to do 30x more work to BLP to procc

[Axelond]

Anecdotical evidence.
Do you know anyone who got 3 legendaries on a single day ? I know two persons who did after the first fix.

It could for sure. But with the sample size this data used with only 5 people getting 5 legendaries it's already extremely inaccurate for 5th and up. as OP also said these numbers were before the hotfix. So we really need new data and new spreadsheet for 5 and up legendaries and this guy with 1200 mythic+ done may actually have expected legendaries of over 6.

I think if someone could pull lets say the top 500 AP ranked people and pull their Kill Points and amount of legendaries we could get some numbers for higher number of legendaries and see if they fit in to these numbers we might get some very different kill points for 5th, 6th and 7th. Problem is all the announced and probably hidden legendary hotfixes will skew these numbers a lot. So could be very inaccurate using all data since legion launch.

[Deleted]

Those Dec 15 stats also say that to have a 50% chance to get 2nd legendary, you would need 430KP. Now if he would've needed that same amount for each legendary then he should have now 20 legendaries.

Your phrasing is wrong. You don't get a 50% chance for a second legendary with 430KP as that would mean 97% of the people with ~450 KP should have their second legendary. Failing a 50% chance many times in a row is extremely unlikely.

Instead you should say something like;
* 50% of the people with 1 legendary + 430 KP since getting that legendary have gotten their second legendary.
* At 430 KP, there's a 50% chance you have gotten your second legendary.
* Those Dec 15 stats also say that there is a 50% chance you will have obtained your 2nd legendary when you have 430 KP.

The same invalid phrasing is used in the original post leading to unnecessary confusion.

[Deleted]

I got 3 specs with 35TH trait. Its obvious that I play more than the average here. How many do I have? 2 legendaries(1 being BiS other one is Sephuz).

How much do I whine?

[goriander]

I got 3 specs with 35TH trait. Its obvious that I play more than the average here. How many do I have? 2 legendaries(1 being BiS other one is Sephuz).

How much do I whine?

Sorry to break it for you but 3 specs at 35 is nothing at the current AK levels. You're in a great spot if you have 2 legendaries and one of them is BiS.

I have 4: Prydaz, Sephuz and two bad offspec legendaries (Unholy ring and shoulders) even though I haven't touched UH in three months. It will be a long time before I can obtain another legendary because I already have 4, I'd rather have none than 4 bad ones because with the current system I most likely won't see my BiS legendaries before the next expansion.

I'm actually contemplating switching my main because the first legendary I got on my hunter is BiS so on the long term I'd be better off by starting to work on him rather than wasting time on rerolling another DK and playing catchup.

[Deleted]

Sorry to break it for you but 3 specs at 35 is nothing at the current AK levels. You're in a great spot if you have 2 legendaries and one of them is BiS. I have 4: Prydaz, Sephuz and two bad offspec legendaries (Unholy ring and shoulders) even though I haven't touched UH in three months. It will be a long time before I can obtain another legendary because I already have 4, I'd rather have none than 4 bad ones because with the current system I most likely won't see my BiS legendaries before the next expansion.

Shoulders are BiS in 7.1.5. They buffed both Sephuz and Prydaz as well, where Sephuz is also a BiS for almost everyone. But the process of doing 500 Mythic+ and the gear you get(BiS none-legends), is far superior when compared to YOU ARE FULLY EQUIPPED WITH EVERY LEGENDARY INGAME FOR YOUR CLASS(if that was possibe).

Im truely sorry to break it for you. People are not playing this as how it supposed to be.

This community is the the stupidest thing ive witnessed(nothing personal).

[goriander]

Shoulders are BiS in 7.1.5. They buffed both Sephuz and Prydaz as well, where Sephuz is also a BiS for almost everyone. But the process of doing 500 Mythic+ and the gear you get(BiS none-legends), is far superior when compared to YOU ARE FULLY EQUIPPED WITH EVERY LEGENDARY INGAME FOR YOUR CLASS(if that was possibe).

Im truely sorry to break it for you.

This community is the the stupidest thing ive witnessed(nothing personal).

They will be better than now but far from BiS (currently they're not even worth wearing) and I don't play UH so what does that have to do with anything? What the shit am I going to do with my 896 ilvl in bags when the next tier is right around the corner (=gearing process starts from the beginning except for legendaries)? Sephuz is not even decent in raids for anyone but healers, not now and not after the patch. On the long term nothing matters in terms of gear except having your two BiS legendaries.

Btw just simmed my character with all the legendaries equipped and my dps is 30% higher that at my current gear with perfect itemization, BiS trinkets and ilvl 894 equipped.

[Deleted]

They will be better than now but far from BiS (currently they're not even worth wearing) and I don't play UH so what does that have to do with anything? What the shit am I going to do with my 896 ilvl in bags when the next tier is right around the corner (=gearing process starts from the beginning except for legendaries)? Sephuz is not even decent in raids for anyone but healers, not now and not after the patch. On the long term nothing matters in terms of gear except having your two BiS legendaries.

Btw just simmed my character with all the legendaries equipped and my dps is 30% higher that at my current gear with perfect itemization, BiS trinkets and ilvl 894 equipped.

30% for something impossible to get? There you have it.

You are already sitting with perfect items. I get it, you want your BiS legendary. Still, you are sitting with perfect gear, thanks to your desperate farm. That is a WHOLE lot more important, than getting 1 item.

I see no worry.

[goriander]

30% for something impossible to get? There you have it.

You claimed that having all legendaries equipped would result in lower dps than BiS gear from dungeons which is not true for nearly every class/spec.

I don't think anyone is complaining about not having 10 legendaries, people are complaining because every bad/useless legendary drop you get means you have to do twice the amount of content to have another chance at rolling your best legendaries.

You are already sitting with perfect items. I get it, you want your BiS legendary. Still, you are sitting with perfect gear, thanks to your desperate farm. That is a WHOLE lot more important, than getting 1 item.

I see no worry.

Gear that will be meaningless in less than a month from now. There are people in the same situation as me who have already rerolled a new char of the same class just to have another chance at getting decent legendaries. I wouldn't hesitate for a second if I had the chance to trade in all my gear for two legendaries of my choice.

[Deleted]

The only problem i have with legendary is that they shuold change effect based on spec, it's super annoying to have BiS legendary for one spec but you find out that will be nerfed to the ground soon, and then you need to hope for replacement for off spec.

[cszsolt3]

Has the tracking of the 5th legendary stats been reset since they removed the soft cap?

[Svisalith]

Still, you are sitting with perfect gear, thanks to your desperate farm. That is a WHOLE lot more important, than getting 1 item.

Not always

[danieltang34]

does KP reset after looting a legendary, or its cumulative?
like...if i get my second legendary after 300 keystone runs, is my chance of getting a 3rd same as someone who got two immediately after 110?

[impending doom]

Your phrasing is wrong. You don't get a 50% chance for a second legendary with 430KP as that would mean 97% of the people with ~450 KP should have their second legendary. Failing a 50% chance many times in a row is extremely unlikely.

Instead you should say something like;
* 50% of the people with 1 legendary + 430 KP since getting that legendary have gotten their second legendary.
* At 430 KP, there's a 50% chance you have gotten your second legendary.
* Those Dec 15 stats also say that there is a 50% chance you will have obtained your 2nd legendary when you have 430 KP.

The same invalid phrasing is used in the original post leading to unnecessary confusion.

Yes maybe the phrasing could've been more detailed, after all, it's not always easy to understand this kind of statistics. "After 1st legendary you'd have 50% chance for a second legendary within next 430KP" is what I meant. And even that could be misinterpreted, but the basic message from these stats is that there is something making the drop rate smaller after receiving each legendary.

Has the tracking of the 5th legendary stats been reset since they removed the soft cap?

There's no specific resets but it would take probably months to get enough data from these <10k players to have any truly meaningful stats about 5th legendary, it's just too rare, even people with 4 legendaries are quite rare in this dataset. Blizzard will probably change the system before I could get enough data.

does KP reset after looting a legendary, or its cumulative?
like...if i get my second legendary after 300 keystone runs, is my chance of getting a 3rd same as someone who got two immediately after 110?

In calculation of these statistics, yes it is reset to 1 KP after looting a legendary. Also the the statistics show that the probability to get a legendary is smaller right after looting a legendary, and gets higher after few 100 KP is gained. This kind of suggests that the bad luck protection is reset after looting one.

[Stellan]

Fascinating. After all this time, I haven't got even one legendary. How did that happen?

[tacticalxxpanda]

Shoulders are BiS in 7.1.5. They buffed both Sephuz and Prydaz as well, where Sephuz is also a BiS for almost everyone. But the process of doing 500 Mythic+ and the gear you get(BiS none-legends), is far superior when compared to YOU ARE FULLY EQUIPPED WITH EVERY LEGENDARY INGAME FOR YOUR CLASS(if that was possibe).

Im truely sorry to break it for you. People are not playing this as how it supposed to be.

This community is the the stupidest thing ive witnessed(nothing personal).

Nah man you dont know what you're talking about. This might be the case for your spec, but for mine and many others having both BiS legendaries compared to 2 utility legendaries is around 100k dps increase. So for people who are already 885+ with well itemized gear there is no way they can get a higher dps increase than 100k from just getting purps. Plus theres the fact that all your purps will get replaced probably sooner than later, where as your BiS legendary will be your BiS for the entire xpac. Also take into account the exponential curve for legendary drop rates where as purps will always be just as easy to obtain.

It should be easy to see why both BiS legendaries is worth more than having good gear. I'm one of the few lucky ones to have both my BiS and even competing against the other lock in my guild with 1 of his BiS theres still an average 50k dps difference between me and him. Theres literally nothing he can do to catch up to me at this point other than getting the same legendaries I have, so tell me again how purps are more valuable than your BiS lmao.

[Mykk]

Fascinating. After all this time, I haven't got even one legendary. How did that happen?

Afk in dalaran does not entitle you to get legendary

[danieltang34]

Fascinating. After all this time, I haven't got even one legendary. How did that happen?

you need to actually play the game to get one. as of last patch you're almost guaranteed to get a first legendary immediately

[Deadlycaster]

nice work, posting to keep track incase i lose the bookmark!

[Stellan]

Afk in dalaran does not entitle you to get legendary

I'm not afking in Dalaran. I'm working on part one of the flying achievement. Apparently, that doesn't generate a legendary.