Real Legendary drop rates and other statistics for 9785 chars [Spreadsheet]

[Eyliria]

I imagine the KP figures for expected #1 and #2 are probably largely unchanged (they were pretty low as is).
However, it would be amazing to figure out the average KP needed from the third one onwards.

From personal experience on 3->4 and 5 -> 6, it seems to be roughly 7-800KP.

[impending doom]

UPDATE Feb 22:
Here's Nighthold drop rate statistics from the last 3 weeks:



NOTES - There are several things that affect the drop rates, which makes it harder to directly compare different groups:
- People with less legendaries have higher average bad luck protection(more "killpoints"), which also increases the drop chances in these groups.
- People with more legendaries do more mythic/HC raids, which should have have higher base drop chance.
- Blizzard is regularly changing the drop chances.
- There is always some amount of statistical error.

Either way, it appears like the drop rates for people with more legendaries have increased just 1-2 week ago.
I will try to improve the tracking process and kill points calculations, maybe start to track more characters.

Full spreadsheets:
Feb 22: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Feb 15: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Feb 8: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Kanael]

UPDATE Feb 22:
Here's Nighthold drop rate statistics from the last 3 weeks:



NOTES - There are several things that affect the drop rates, which makes it harder to directly compare different groups:
- People with less legendaries have higher average bad luck protection(more "killpoints"), which also increases the drop chances in these groups.
- People with more legendaries do more mythic/HC raids, which should have have higher base drop chance.
- Blizzard is regularly changing the drop chances.
- There is always some amount of statistical error.

Either way, it appears like the drop rates for people with more legendaries have increased just 1-2 week ago.
I will try to improve the tracking process and kill points calculations, maybe start to track more characters.

Full spreadsheets:
Feb 22: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Feb 15: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Feb 8: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Any news for estimated KP values for legendaries?

[impending doom]

Any news for estimated KP values for legendaries?

Not really, there is still work to do.

If we assume that the drop rates had a major change possibly only less than 2 weeks ago (the timing of blue post and the changes seen in the latest stats), then we can't really trust older data for predicting future drop rates. And if we want to know what's the average KP needed between legendaries right now, I think I'd need to track at least few weeks of data so that enough players will get 2 legendaries within this period.

And any statistics based on Total KP, like seen in Feb 6 update and the killpoints site, would be good only for showing historical averages for specific group, but are not really useful for predicting the current drop rates because apparently those are changing every month. So I think from now on I'll just focus on more current data and not the total KP.

[Deleted]

Any idea of the KP needed to get a legendary after the third? They said it would take the same amount of effort for every legendary after the third. So are you close to having that number?

[Kanael]

Not really, there is still work to do.

If we assume that the drop rates had a major change possibly only less than 2 weeks ago (the timing of blue post and the changes seen in the latest stats), then we can't really trust older data for predicting future drop rates. And if we want to know what's the average KP needed between legendaries right now, I think I'd need to track at least few weeks of data so that enough players will get 2 legendaries within this period.

And any statistics based on Total KP, like seen in Feb 6 update and the killpoints site, would be good only for showing historical averages for specific group, but are not really useful for predicting the current drop rates because apparently those are changing every month. So I think from now on I'll just focus on more current data and not the total KP.

I'm curious why you're getting only data from EU-Draenor. Is it a highly populated, very active (in terms of Progression/Raiding) in EU?

Also if you need help collecting data (or some shiz) just say. I draw the line on doing actual math/statistics tho.

- - - Updated - - -

Any idea of the KP needed to get a legendary after the third? They said it would take the same amount of effort for every legendary after the third. So are you close to having that number?

From what someone said and from my experience, around 600-800 KP (take this with a huge grain of salt).

[impending doom]

I'm curious why you're getting only data from EU-Draenor. Is it a highly populated, very active (in terms of Progression/Raiding) in EU?

Also if you need help collecting data (or some shiz) just say. I draw the line on doing actual math/statistics tho.

Yes in October I made this list of top 10k characters by ilvl, from Draenor-EU because it is one of the most active raiding realms. Surely would be better to track much more players, like wowprogress and some other sites do, but for this I want to first rewrite the program for tracking/parsing to make it better optimized for more extended use.

Any idea of the KP needed to get a legendary after the third? They said it would take the same amount of effort for every legendary after the third. So are you close to having that number?

Hard to say exactly without proper new data, but an average 600-800 KP is probably not a bad guess. However averages can be misleading, because even if that would be the correct average, due to RNG only less than 50% of people will fit in this 600-800 range.

[Deleted]

Might want to consider kazzak. Has the more raiding guilds i believe. Atleast in Mythic content.

[azztigma]

Does the KP for Mythic+ mean 4 KP for 3 chests or 4 KP per chest?

[Osmin]

If it helps, I got both my 5th and 6th legendaries after the nighthold release, and they were almost exactly 700kp apart.

[Deleted]

It actually feels like they've increased the drop rates by a large margin. Lately I'm seeing a lot of legendary drops in my guild, feels like we're getting 2-3 everyday at least (both on mains and alts). I've also seen people that receive their 7th 8th and 9th legendaries in 3 consecutive days.

[Deleted]

It actually feels like they've increased the drop rates by a large margin. Lately I'm seeing a lot of legendary drops in my guild, feels like we're getting 2-3 everyday at least (both on mains and alts). I've also seen people that receive their 7th 8th and 9th legendaries in 3 consecutive days.

I'd really love the armory of whoever has 9. I've never seen that.

[Deleted]

My problem to this date is that've gotten the worst three legendaries for my main spec. For this reason I run everything with lootspec set to my main spec (resto druid) and don't have a single offspec legendary. This is really hurting my ability to be relevant on those occasions where I need to play my off spec and I get compared to players that had more luck and already have several main and offspec legendaries.

This whole system despite all the tunings can still only be classified as retarded.

The most annoying thing is, that while I run the horrible LFR, do dungeon number 1000 and do my millionth WQ to try and get at least one of the top legendaries for my mainspec I'm seeing guildies getting legendaries left and right. So much for bad luck protection

[Deleted]

I'd really love the armory of whoever has 9. I've never seen that.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/characte...s/Dyy/advanced

[Adramelch]

https://www.wowprogress.com/characte...is/Likecowgirl also posted a picture with his 9 legendaries in boomy discord a while back. Only missing boots iirc.

[Faildevil]

Is there a way to see how much legendarys one player allready got?

[Eyliria]

Is there a way to see how much legendarys one player allready got?

Not easily I don't think. You have to do a the full history request through the armory API and sort through it.

[impending doom]

Statistics for the last week, the average drop rates have been increasing again (maybe due to BLP), and people with 4+ legendaries are seeing much more drops than 3 weeks ago, at least from Nighthold:


(edit: fixed the LFR numbers to include also the 3 new bosses)

Full spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Is there a way to see how much legendarys one player allready got?

Not from the armory unless you have been saving the past activity feed data, which I've been doing since october and I'm using that data to count how many legendaries these people have looted.

Does the KP for Mythic+ mean 4 KP for 3 chests or 4 KP per chest?

It's 4 KP for each mythic+ finished in time, this is the same stat that wowprogress uses to track amount of mythic 2+.
There is no direct way to see from the armory how many chests people have looted from each M+.

Anyway the drop rates were recently increased significantly, so the old KP calculations are not currently up-to-date.

[Deleted]

We have two players in our guild with 9 and 10 legendaries on one character. Both had max 6k kp at the time the last leg dropped (4 weeks ago). One of this character was a reroll after EN. Both didnt profit from the bug at the very begining of legion.

[leapfrog123]

So lfr has the same chance to drop a legendary as mythic now? I guess that would be Blizzard catering to more casual players. Also, does this deny Blizzard's claim that after two legendaries the drop rate is the same for every legendary afterward? According to the statistics, getting a legendary still dramatically reduces your chance to get another one.