What will the Donald Trump Presidency mean for Europe?

[Zarc]

Looking to my own fellow citizens first and foremost, my first concern about a potential (and now certain) Trump Presidency was the effect it would have on Europe. I feel concern to my American friends too of course, due to his authoritarian ways. I wish you the best of luck guys! There's light at the end of the tunnel.

Anyway; I see either of two scenarios playing out here. But feel free to diverge from these and discuss other affects you think The Donald's Presidency might have for Europe!

1) Either he emboldens and boosts the advancement of the right-wing authoritarian populists movements that have been brewing across Europe far longer than the blitzkreig-version of that which is Donald Trump,

2) or he will actually help us by turning people away from it.

I mean in the first scenario he would lend legitimacy to them by helping to spread their distorted and twisted worldview advanced by the likes of Breitbart News, certain "news" from your Facebook feed or other sources of fake news.

The second scenario is - and don't underestimate this - that he rather awakens the anti-Americanism that has always existed among the Left in Europe (aside from Britain, but they're gonna be leaving soon anyway so, and their government already beat Trump to Trumpism) and thereby helping to boost their appeal. Socialists and Social Democrats in Europe loved to hate the American cowboy George W Bush. And, as much as Trump is an authoritarian strongman type of guy, he is also the perfect caricature of America in the eyes of the European Left. He is an unapologetic, overconfident, loudmouthed arch-capitalist.



And with all the years of austerity, what Europe really needs is not the xenophobic, scapegoating, protectionist, lying, neo-reactionaries of the populist right, but rather a fairer tax system that puts much more of the burden on the top 1%, and uses that wealth to provide good jobs for the average Joe in building infrastructure, in law enforcement, in education and in healthcare which grows the middle-class and boosts the economy as a whole. Low, middle and even high income earners spend more of their money on basic things that grow the entire economy than the super-wealthy who shop luxury goods, bank their money and invest overseas.

Are we destined to follow the US' lead, in which case what could have been a Bernie Sanders Presidency is a massively missed opportunity, or are we to be repelled by it?

[Redwyrm]

He'll probably push to abandon NATO which will give the green light to Russia to start expanding westward.

[Calfredd]

I mean I don't like Trump either but I was expecting a more impartial thread when I clicked the link for this thread.

[GennGreymane]

find out in a year or so

[Zarc]

I mean I don't like Trump either but I was expecting a more impartial thread when I clicked the link for this thread.

Yeah, I admit to not being partial at all. But that is OK, because I am very much expecting very many impartial replies! (Also I expect at least half the people to reply to the question in the topic header while ignoring the post itself).

[Kalis]

He's going to turn Scotland into one big golf course.

We'll be fine with that.

[Djuntas]

We'll, we will haft to spend more money on Nato, which is fine. Fair enough. In Denmark, which btw have only about 5% of the population wanting Trump for a "general" phone-call statistic research, we already talk about spending more money on military and changing policies towards the USA.

And it weakness nato right here and now, which can be a bad thing with Russia.

...Im more worried about USA closing themselves around it...Trump will definitely look into trade agreements...But worst is he will abandon what was promised on climate change deals in Paris

[Deleted]

Seems like some very speculative scenarios you set up there. I'd be far more interested in what our actual alliance and trade deals look like, than some theoretical political push (which he doesn't even have the time for unless he dumps his presidential duties).

[Deleted]

He's going to turn Scotland into one big golf course.

We'll be fine with that.

Then we have to listen to them moan more than they already do :/

[Kalis]

Then we have to listen to them moan more than they already do :/

Is that possible? Surely they have to sleep sometime.

[Independent voter]

For every $2 we send Europe we get $1 back. He's said he's going to fix that with tariffs, add another $25,000 to the cost of a Mercedes for example.

His constituency are not Mercedes owners.

[Celista]

Trump is a symptom of both the rise of the right wing in Europe/the West and a symptom of a neglected middle class. I think Trump will push pro-isolationist policies and boost the alt-right rhetoric (whether inadvertently or no) as per #1 in the OP.

[Deleted]

For every $2 we send Europe we get $1 back. He's said he's going to fix that with tariffs, add another $25,000 to the cost of a Mercedes for example.

His constituency are not Mercedes owners.

Wouldn't we as Europe then just do the same, and we'd essentially both end up screwing our own industries market potential?

[Celista]

For every $2 we send Europe we get $1 back. He's said he's going to fix that with tariffs, add another $25,000 to the cost of a Mercedes for example.

His constituency are not Mercedes owners.

We talked about tariffs extensively in my econ classes and generally speaking the consensus among most mainstream economists is that tariffs do not work, the cost of goods simply goes up overall because domestic goods producers simply raise the prices of their own goods to match or nearly match the increased price of imported products.

We shall see, however.

[Deleted]

He'll probably push to abandon NATO which will give the green light to Russia to start expanding westward.

No he wont, he even said that. He will want the members to contribute though and pay their fair share instead of relying the US to cover all the costs.

[Mayhem]

We talked about tariffs extensively in my econ classes and generally speaking the consensus among most mainstream economists is that tariffs do not work, the cost of goods simply goes up overall because domestic goods producers simply raise the prices of their own goods to match or nearly match the increased price of imported products.

We shall see, however.

What? You´re telling us that local products will not stay as cheap as they are when everything else gets more expensive??

[Celista]

What? You´re telling us that local products will not stay as cheap as they are when everything else gets more expensive??

What incentive would local producers have to keep prices less than a small margin cheaper than imported products?

Look at gas stations. The gas station down the street doesn't charge you half the price of gas than the other guy charges you just to get your business, he marks down his gas by $0.05 a gallon.

[Mayhem]

What incentive would local producers have to keep prices less than a small margin cheaper than imported products?

Look at gas stations. The gas station down the street doesn't charge you half the price of gas than the other guy charges you just to get your business, he marks down his gas by $0.05 a gallon.

I need a sarcasm emoji! So yeah, i understand what you´re saying.

[Celista]

I need a sarcasm emoji! So yeah, i understand what you´re saying.

Oh sorry. /woosh, working and reading the forums at the same time.

[nextormento]

Trump is a symptom of both the rise of the right wing in Europe/the West

It's populism what's rising.
It's Front national, ukip or AfD, yes, but it's also Syriza, Podemos, Cinque Stelle or Bloco E. It was Castro, it's Duterte, it's Justin Trudeau and it's Maduro.
Assorted clowns exploiting the exact same strategy: it's the fault of the other. Ignoring that the other end of the spectrum is populated by imbeciles too, only strengthens their claim to power.